This week looks to be a crazy one, especially in the first couple of days. According to the latest computer model runs, rain should continue today as a large storm system moves northward into Canada.
So far, the rain has been light, but the National Weather Service has said that rain bands are likely to intensify throughout the morning hours, bringing pockets of heavier rain. Therefore, most areas today will pick up around a half inch. Temperatures already reached a high of 59 today, so I expect temperatures to continue dropping, dropping to below 40 by this afternoon, as a strong cold front makes its way through. By tonight only showers linger, when the storm system will redevelop over the southern United States. This next system will have plenty of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico to work with, so expect heavy rainfall totals with this next rain event. It looks like rain bands will begin spreading northward by Monday around noon, starting as light rain and gradually becoming heavier. The rain will gradually get heavier through the night as the storm system strengthens. The National Weather Service expects rainfall totals on Monday from three-quarters of an inch to over an inch, and I agree with them, mainly because of how much moisture is associated with this system. Tuesday, heavy rain still continues with dropping temperatures once again from the lower 40's, to possibly lower 30's by afternoon. As temperatures drop, and as strong lifting occurs in the atmosphere over Indiana, Ohio, and Michigan, I expect pockets of snow to develop during the day, so don't be surprised if all of the sudden it starts to snow very heavily during the afternoon Tuesday. This is where the tricky part comes in. During the night, computer model runs have trended to a significant snow event area wide, with the heaviest snow totals right along the Indiana border on northward into Michigan. While areas east of Defiance will probably not see much snow accumulation, towns right along the Indiana border in Northwest Ohio will likely see at least moderate accumulations (the exact words of the National Weather Service), with heavier snow accumulations possible more likely in Northern Indiana and in Michigan. Right now, computer models are all over the place with snow accumulations, with the JMA producing over a foot of snow to the area, while the GFS is forecasting 1-2 inches and the NAM is forecasting 3-5 inches at most. If enough dynamic cooling takes place, and the surface cold air mass is cold and deep enough for snow, I would expect around 2-3 inches at a MINIMUM, with the possibility of snowfall amounts approaching 5 or 6 inches especially farther north. This will be something interesting to watch. All in all, rainfall totals from Sunday afternoon through Tuesday Night, will reach over 4 inches, inducing river flooding and flooding in low lying areas. Depending on when the cold air arrives, expect travel issues as Tuesday Night's snow will heavy and wet in nature with several inches possible. After the entire storm system passes through, the coldest air of the season will finally arrive, dropping temperatures in the mid to upper 30's, with some days in the lower 40's. By Friday, a small clipper system will bring snow showers, and renewed cold air mass, with highs possibly in the lower 30's, and lows in the lower 20's. After this, the computer models have gone crazy, with some pushing all of the cold air back out of the region. Even if this does happen, all signs are pointing to the fact that the teleconnections will line up by at the latest the 15th, where winter will finally arrive. With this, I also expect that by Christmas, winter will be well underway, with bitterly cold air and hopefully a white ground.
So far, the rain has been light, but the National Weather Service has said that rain bands are likely to intensify throughout the morning hours, bringing pockets of heavier rain. Therefore, most areas today will pick up around a half inch. Temperatures already reached a high of 59 today, so I expect temperatures to continue dropping, dropping to below 40 by this afternoon, as a strong cold front makes its way through. By tonight only showers linger, when the storm system will redevelop over the southern United States. This next system will have plenty of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico to work with, so expect heavy rainfall totals with this next rain event. It looks like rain bands will begin spreading northward by Monday around noon, starting as light rain and gradually becoming heavier. The rain will gradually get heavier through the night as the storm system strengthens. The National Weather Service expects rainfall totals on Monday from three-quarters of an inch to over an inch, and I agree with them, mainly because of how much moisture is associated with this system. Tuesday, heavy rain still continues with dropping temperatures once again from the lower 40's, to possibly lower 30's by afternoon. As temperatures drop, and as strong lifting occurs in the atmosphere over Indiana, Ohio, and Michigan, I expect pockets of snow to develop during the day, so don't be surprised if all of the sudden it starts to snow very heavily during the afternoon Tuesday. This is where the tricky part comes in. During the night, computer model runs have trended to a significant snow event area wide, with the heaviest snow totals right along the Indiana border on northward into Michigan. While areas east of Defiance will probably not see much snow accumulation, towns right along the Indiana border in Northwest Ohio will likely see at least moderate accumulations (the exact words of the National Weather Service), with heavier snow accumulations possible more likely in Northern Indiana and in Michigan. Right now, computer models are all over the place with snow accumulations, with the JMA producing over a foot of snow to the area, while the GFS is forecasting 1-2 inches and the NAM is forecasting 3-5 inches at most. If enough dynamic cooling takes place, and the surface cold air mass is cold and deep enough for snow, I would expect around 2-3 inches at a MINIMUM, with the possibility of snowfall amounts approaching 5 or 6 inches especially farther north. This will be something interesting to watch. All in all, rainfall totals from Sunday afternoon through Tuesday Night, will reach over 4 inches, inducing river flooding and flooding in low lying areas. Depending on when the cold air arrives, expect travel issues as Tuesday Night's snow will heavy and wet in nature with several inches possible. After the entire storm system passes through, the coldest air of the season will finally arrive, dropping temperatures in the mid to upper 30's, with some days in the lower 40's. By Friday, a small clipper system will bring snow showers, and renewed cold air mass, with highs possibly in the lower 30's, and lows in the lower 20's. After this, the computer models have gone crazy, with some pushing all of the cold air back out of the region. Even if this does happen, all signs are pointing to the fact that the teleconnections will line up by at the latest the 15th, where winter will finally arrive. With this, I also expect that by Christmas, winter will be well underway, with bitterly cold air and hopefully a white ground.
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| HPC rainfall prediction for the next five days. |
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