After long months of not posting anything on this blog, I've decided to return to blogging on a more regular basis. While I can't guarantee post frequency, I can say that I will attempt to write as many as one or two posts a week. Most of my updates will be made on the Facebook page from now on.
I have also decided that I was going to go through a name change. While I originally chose the name Northwest Ohio Storm Prediction Center more than five years ago, I have decided to change the name for several reasons.
1. The name is too close to the name "Storm Prediction Center" which is actually an official source for severe weather forecasting. I do not want to confuse people through social media thinking that my publishing is from an official source when it isn't.
2. The name is too complicated and I thought that Lower Great Lakes Weather And Climate would be a more suitable name. Since I do not intend on doing any national forecasting any time soon, keeping it more regionally based sounded best for the time being.
Now, in terms of the actual ongoing forecast, we have an interesting situation developing.
First, it is clear by now that this winter season will be vastly different from last winter. Last December featured the warmest December on record, shattering previous records. Fort Wayne's average temperature was above normal by nearly 15 degrees Fahrenheit, which is incredibly significant. Many other areas across the lower Great Lakes saw record warm Decembers as well.
Interestingly enough, November 2016 was an incredibly warm month for many areas, but it appears that this December will feature vastly different conditions, with very cold Arctic air likely dominating at times.
It is uncertain what the rest of the season will look like, but it appears that temperatures in January and February will moderate. However, it does appear that the entire season will feature wetter and potentially snowier than normal conditions for most of the area.
Secondly, in terms of the medium and long-range forecast, we have the potential for another two major Arctic waves to impact the area by the week of the 18th. The first wave next week will be preceded by a winter storm that will impact many areas from Chicago to Detroit, Fort Wayne, Cleveland, Columbus, Indianapolis and many other areas. While there is still significant uncertainty in terms of who will see the biggest impacts and the most snow, it appears that a broad swath of five or more inches of snow could fall from northern Illinois into northern Indiana, northern Ohio and southern Michigan. Areas farther south could be dealing with lesser amounts due to the probability of rain and ice mixing with the snow.
The timing for this event is likely to be from Saturday night into Monday morning. Saturday night, a week clipper-like system will impact the area with widespread light to moderate snow. A couple inches of snow could fall in this first event. Then, a more significant round of precipitation is likely to begin by Sunday afternoon and evening, with heavier snowfall for many areas. However, due to the strength of the system, it is likely that many areas, especially central Ohio and south, will see a rain/snow mix due to warm air aloft. Again, this is not set in stone because there is still a lot of uncertainty in the model solutions but we do have a general idea of what will happen.
I will keep you updated on the main Facebook page.
I have also decided that I was going to go through a name change. While I originally chose the name Northwest Ohio Storm Prediction Center more than five years ago, I have decided to change the name for several reasons.
1. The name is too close to the name "Storm Prediction Center" which is actually an official source for severe weather forecasting. I do not want to confuse people through social media thinking that my publishing is from an official source when it isn't.
2. The name is too complicated and I thought that Lower Great Lakes Weather And Climate would be a more suitable name. Since I do not intend on doing any national forecasting any time soon, keeping it more regionally based sounded best for the time being.
Now, in terms of the actual ongoing forecast, we have an interesting situation developing.
First, it is clear by now that this winter season will be vastly different from last winter. Last December featured the warmest December on record, shattering previous records. Fort Wayne's average temperature was above normal by nearly 15 degrees Fahrenheit, which is incredibly significant. Many other areas across the lower Great Lakes saw record warm Decembers as well.
Interestingly enough, November 2016 was an incredibly warm month for many areas, but it appears that this December will feature vastly different conditions, with very cold Arctic air likely dominating at times.
It is uncertain what the rest of the season will look like, but it appears that temperatures in January and February will moderate. However, it does appear that the entire season will feature wetter and potentially snowier than normal conditions for most of the area.
Secondly, in terms of the medium and long-range forecast, we have the potential for another two major Arctic waves to impact the area by the week of the 18th. The first wave next week will be preceded by a winter storm that will impact many areas from Chicago to Detroit, Fort Wayne, Cleveland, Columbus, Indianapolis and many other areas. While there is still significant uncertainty in terms of who will see the biggest impacts and the most snow, it appears that a broad swath of five or more inches of snow could fall from northern Illinois into northern Indiana, northern Ohio and southern Michigan. Areas farther south could be dealing with lesser amounts due to the probability of rain and ice mixing with the snow.
The timing for this event is likely to be from Saturday night into Monday morning. Saturday night, a week clipper-like system will impact the area with widespread light to moderate snow. A couple inches of snow could fall in this first event. Then, a more significant round of precipitation is likely to begin by Sunday afternoon and evening, with heavier snowfall for many areas. However, due to the strength of the system, it is likely that many areas, especially central Ohio and south, will see a rain/snow mix due to warm air aloft. Again, this is not set in stone because there is still a lot of uncertainty in the model solutions but we do have a general idea of what will happen.
I will keep you updated on the main Facebook page.
