More Rain and Thunderstorms after Already Wet Month. Winter forecast will be released on August 25.

After an already wet August here in Antwerp, (I have estimated about 3.5 inches of rain to have fallen) making it the first above average month in terms of rainfall since May, more rain and thunderstorms are on the way.  On Saturday, a strong shortwave trough is expected to drop into the Ohio Valley, along with a surface trough moving in from Oklahoma.  This surface trough is expected to become a stationary front over the Ohio Valley, causing periods of heavy rain and thunderstorms over our area.  According to the National Weather Service, this may be our first widespread heavy rainfall event since May 25, 2011.  The associated shortwave trough will cause a band of widespread heavy showers and thunderstorms north of a warm front draped across the Ohio River.  As of right now, it is unclear how much rain may fall, but rainfall may be on the order of 1-3 inches area wide.  This may cause some areal flooding and will cause the Maumee River and other rivers in the area to rise back above normal levels and maybe even to flood stage.  On Sunday, these showers and thunderstorms may continue bringing additional rainfall, but is unclear at this time what will happen.  I will keep you updated.
       Already, I have seen people releasing winter forecasts and I just have to say, I will be releasing one too, on August 25, after some research.  According to the Climate Prediction Center, La Nina will be redeveloping by November, and it could restrengthen to weak to moderate levels.  According to some forecasters, our area could see much above normal snowfall again this winter, but with temperatures not being near as cold as last winter.  This forecast is still subject to change, but usually this area receives the heaviest snowfall during weak to moderate La Ninas.  But then again other factors may come into play.

Seasonably Comfortable Weather. More Storms on the Horizon

After a cold front and a few thunderstorms moved through the region yesterday and last night, temperatures have finally cooled to levels that are just above normal for this time of year.  Currently in Antwerp, it is 83 degrees while in Fort Wayne it is 84 degrees.  Defiance and Toledo are both at 82 degrees.  Temperatures could rise a few more degrees before beginning to fall early this evening.  By around 6 p.m., our cloud cover should begin to increase and thicken.  This should pave the way for more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity, with the possibility of heavy rain, and the possibility of severe weather, which is more the likely farther south.  Already, widespread heavy thunderstorms are developing over Northern Illinois and are increasing coverage.  These thunderstorms will likely move this way and hit by 10 p.m.  Since these thunderstorms are expected to grow in coverage, I would expect that these thunderstorms will last for several hours.  Tomorrow, thunderstorms are possible again in the afternoon and evening hours, with the possibility of heavy rain being the main threat.  Throughout the rest of the week a longwave trough high in the atmosphere will be present over our area, causing much cooler conditions than we had in July.  This trough will allow shortwaves to ride around its base, bringing periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms.