Warm weather yet again

When it seems it can't get any better (80's in March, lots of sunshine), it just keeps getting better.  For example, today, it is expecting to be partly cloudy ahead of a cold front with temperatures rising into the mid 70's.  It isn't ideal, because of the chance for thunderstorms, but it is pretty nice, even compared to last May (last May was the wettest May on record.).  Looking over the week ahead, temperatures will be soaring into the upper 70's, especially by Wednesday, and then into the 80's by Friday.  Guidance continues to suggest that the surge of warmth will continue through the following week also.  It is possible that we will be hitting the 90's by the following week, which will be well above normal and possibly record-breaking.  Given dry conditions and plenty of sunshine, long-range forecasts will definitely have a cooler bias to them, which means that if they say upper 70's and lower 80's for the end of the week, expect mid 80's.  As for today's forecast, I am not that worried about it, because there is not a whole lot of upper-level forcing nor instability.  According to my analysis of a skew-T log P chart, instability could be high enough to produce scattered thunderstorms but nothing horrible or severe.  One caveat to this is the fact that we are located in the right entrance region of a jet streak, which would produce strong upward motion, aiding thunderstorm development.  But, due to the limited availability of moisture (dew points only in the low 50's), thunderstorms will not be widespread.  Expect tomorrow to be a cooler day, with cloudier skies ahead of a weak shortwave trough axis, with highs in the upper 60's and lower 70's.  By Monday, temperatures once again will be rising into the mid 70's under sunny skies.  I am also expecting the same for Tuesday through Thursday, with Friday showing a marked jump in temperatures into the lower 80's, due to upper level ridging aloft.  This will definitely be a very nice week of weather, just like the rest of spring 2012.

Nicer weather on its way

After a cold front moved through yesterday, cooler conditions began settling in the area, albeit still rather warm for this time of year.  This cold front is currently moving off to the east in Central Pennsylvania, pushing the warmth and humidity away from the area, but leaving us with a beautiful day to contend with.  The upper level ridge is pushing away from the area as a rather strong upper level shortwave or low pushes southeastward in Minnesota.  This upper level cold core low is causing the development of a numerous, but scattered showers and thunderstorms over Minnesota and Wisconsin due to the high lapse rates in the mid-levels.  As this upper level cold pool progagates towards the area, expect an increase in clouds tonight ahead of the storm system.  By tomorrow, the cold pool will cause temperatures to fall even further, with highs only in the mid 60's.  Even though temperatures will be in the mid 60's, a few thunderstorms could form due to the cold core nature of the system.  This event will not be as widespread nor as heavy as Monday's heavy rain event was, with only scattered showers and a few thunderstorms possible.  By Wednesday evening showers will continue and then cease overnight.  Over the next several days, I expect moderating temperatures and nicer weather to arise once again, with temperatures hitting the mid and possibly upper 70's by Saturday, with the chance for a few thunderstorms.

Stormy forecast for Tomorrow

After an absolutely gorgeous week of near-record breaking warm temperatures, things have finally started to get back to near normal, with temperatures back down into the 70's and much less humidity.  Before things get back to normal, a storm system will move towards the area, bringing with it the chance for showers and thunderstorms.  Right now, the main threat appears to hit the area from around 2 or 3 a.m. tonight until about noon tomorrow.  As for details, right now, there is quite a strong temperature and dew point gradient (difference in a weather variable over a given distance; strong dew point and temperature gradients often indicate strong frontal boundaries) across Northwest Ohio, with dew points in the 50's in Antwerp and towards Fort Wayne, and dew points in the 40's and 30's over Toledo, indicating quite a stable air mass across the area.  The higher dew points over Antwerp and Fort Wayne have moved into the area due to the approaching warm front, which is slowly easing its way into the area.  As for temperatures, here in Antwerp, temperatures are approaching the upper 70's while just to the west in Illinois, temperatures are soaring into the 90's with dew points in the lower 70's.  I am not expecting this kind of warmth here tomorrow, but if some sunshine can come out during the afternoon, temperatures could quickly make it into the lower 80's, which could heighten the potential for severe thunderstorms.  Due to the absence of large scale deep layer shear throughout the atmosphere tomorrow, storms will have a hard time organizing into large supercells.  This could mean multicell clusters with isolated severe weather will hit the area tomorrow, especially south of Route 6 and Napoleon.  IF the warm front lifts farther northward, instability could be a lot higher and thunderstorms a lot stronger by tomorrow evening.  As for tonight, as seen on current radar imagery, large thunderstorm clusters are developing in western Illinois, which will move slowly toward the area during the evening hours.  During the evening hours, high-resolution model guidance is suggesting that thunderstorms will become numerous and widespread by midnight, overspreading the area by about 2 a.m.  Heavy rain and gusty winds will be the main threat with these storms, with some of the storms closer to the warm front producing large hail.  These bands of rain could cause localized heavy rainfall in isolated areas, with general rainfall amounts just over a half an inch by noon tomorrow.  I am very uncertain with this forecast, as instability is very low over the area right now, which is causing thunderstorms to weaken considerably as they move toward the area.  As the low level and upper level warm front move over the area, instability will gradually increase, allowing thunderstorms to develop ahead of the them.  Back to Monday afternoon, instability should cause thunderstorms to form, but they will be fairly disorganized, unless the warm front lifts farther north past the area.  If the instability moves into our area, the thunderstorms that form will quickly become organized due to the better shear profiles over the area.  Even then, shear will not be that strong, which will hinder any tornado threat or long-lived thunderstorms.  It will be quite favorable for squall lines, which could move through by the early evening around 5 or 6 p.m.  Monday evening, a scattered thunderstorms will continue moving into the area, with a gradual decrease after 8 p.m.  The cold front moves through by Tuesday, as an upper level wave approaches the area from the northwest.  This upper level wave will produce little or no precipitation because of little moisture available.  Temperatures will continue their fall throughout the week, until rising slightly by the end of the week.