Pattern Fluctuation Until Mid-late January

I'm going to make a pyschic prediction that is 100% correct. ALL of the models will be wrong. I can guarantee it. (Now for the serious part). The models are attaching onto a trend. Water vapor, and model initialization confirms that the Pacific jet stream/longwave configuration is breaking down as we speak. An old rule of thumb states that a wave number transition (and thus a "pattern change") occurs when the Pacific jet becomes incredibly strong and "straight". The long waves flatten out, and the progressive flow pattern re-establishes itself. Determining how long it will take IS the hard part of long-range forecasting. As the Pacific flow flattens out, and becomes incredibly strong and progressive, a few key processes take place in the upper level flow pattern. It sets up a condition known as hydrodynamic instability. This states that an infinitesimal wave introduced into the flow will grow at an exponential rate. Therefore, any series of shortwaves, introduced into this region of baroclinic instability will amplify the pattern. Of course, that is idealized. Other factors will be working against this transition (for every action there is an opposite and equal reaction, etc.). Factors such as chaos, potential energy being converted into kinetic energy will eventually weaken the exponential growth of such a wave. Now.. Timing this will be key. Right now, the SOI values are jumping positive. This indicates that the pressure pattern is beginning to reverse once again. When the SOI values go positive, the Hadley cell strengthens over Indonesia, and weakens over South America and the Eastern Pacific (aka. the ITCZ is farther north over Indonesia, and farther south over the Eastern Pacific). This is all related to the MJO. The MJO will become very active in coming weeks (refer to infrared imagery of the equator).. Infrared imagery indicates large areas of strong convection near the equator. So even though blocking weakens (likely the "residual" effects of a weaker stratospheric cooling that occurred a few weeks ago), the Pacific storm train will likely ramp up again in the next 10 days (based on the 45-60 day cycle of the MJO.. It's likely that the MJO propagates back into phase 7 and 8 by mid-late month, if it remains to be active). Not only this, but the increasing convection will aid in the rising SOI values, likely strengthening an entire Hadley cell circulation which favors a La Nina event. Even so, it'll take a lot more than that to put us back into La Nina so I don't expect it to happen.

Non-technical part now: The point being is that everything is changing. MJO is becoming incredibly active (more so important than we believe in mid-latitude atmospheric circulation). Blocking is breaking down due to the wave number transition, probably induced by changing MJO activity and a weak stratospheric cooling event that occurred a few weeks ago. All in all, the pattern WILL change to a more favorable pattern for winter weather. I don't think it will happen as soon as some say. I don't think it will happen as soon as DT says or a few others. It'll take until mid-late January more than likely to set things in motion, and possibly longer in order to get a more reasonable pattern to set-up. Of course, it could happen earlier, but I don't think its all that likely at this point.