Medium range update

Today, I just want to have a quick update with the weather.  Today through Tomorrow, I'm expecting scattered rain or snow showers.  Today's highs will be in the lower 40's.  It's really uncertain what will happen tomorrow, as the GEM and GFS are both predicting snow, with some rain mixing in.  Current indications are that models may be too cold with this system, which would mean an all rain event for the area tomorrow.  Precipitation amounts will be in the range of 0.25 to 0.6 inches tomorrow, along with some gusty winds.  By this weekend, Saturday and Sunday, a major storm system will form in Canada, bringing very strong winds to the area.  The one thing about this system that's different from many other storm systems over the last several months is that it will not bring much precipitation to the area, if the GFS forecast were to hold to true.  Instead of just a slight cool down after the storm moves through, a rather robust and strong arctic front will sweep southward out of Canada, dropping temperatures from the lower 40's early Sunday morning, to the lower and mid 20's by nightfall, along with some snow.  Temperatures will continue dropping throughout the night, possibly into the mid or upper teens, causing dangerous wind chills.  After the arctic front moves through, temperatures will remain very cold for several days before moderation begins once again.  By Monday, a major lake effect is expected to be underway, the first lake effect event of the season.  This could bring several snow bands as far south as Northwest Ohio and Indiana, possibly causing some travel disruptions.  This arctic front may be a sign of things to come, as long-range guidance indicates that by mid-January, a major and possibly record-breaking arctic outbreak may invade the United States, bringing temperatures that will be well below normal.  This arctic outbreak in mid January may be the pattern change that we have been waiting for.  Some models are even indicating that this arctic outbreak next week will be the pattern breaker.

Updated Snowfall Forecast

In many areas now, it is snowing and snowing heavily, especially closer to the Indiana/Ohio line.  As 850 millibar temperatures become colder, especially east of Fort Wayne, the snow flakes will become smaller, intensifying snowfall rates for a very short period of time.  The frontogenetical forcing has weakened, causing the main band of heavy snow to shift closer to Northwest Ohio and eastern Indiana.  With the latest radar trends, I expect the snowfall to end from west to east by 4 in Fort Wayne, 5 or 6 in Antwerp, and in Defiance in the early evening hours.  Even these estimates may be too slow as the main axis of heavy snowfall has significantly weakened and the whole band of snow is deteriorating.  Snowfall totals from Fort Wayne have been near 3 inches, while in Antwerp about 2-3 inches and east of Antwerp, one to two inches.  This snow will continue through late afternoon, accumulating 2-4 inches over most areas, with some heavier snowfall amounts especially north and east of Fort Wayne.  I expect some lingering back-end snow showers and some lake effect snow showers.  Accumulations tonight will be near a half inch to an inch.  Lows tonight will be very cold compared to the last several nights as they will fall into the lower 20's, causing significant icing.  Temperatures will be on the upward trend the rest of the week, excluding Wednesday when temperatures will barely make it into the lower 30's.  By Thursday, another clipper system will be side-swiping the area, with rain and snow showers.  By early next week, the next major storm system will be affecting the area, with above normal temperatures, rain, wind, and possibly snow.  Stay tuned for further updates.

Snowfall Update

Looking at the latest short range models, snowfall will likely continue later than what I was thinking on Sunday.  These models are showing that snow will not end over most of the area until late this afternoon mainly east of Fort Wayne.  This is good news for snow lovers, because a longer snowfall event could cause heavier snowfall accumulations.  My forecast of 2-4 inches will still hold for most of the area, with these amounts mainly in Northeast Indiana and Northwest Ohio.  Another thing that has shown up as a possibility that short-range models are not picking up on is mesoscale banding of the snow.  When this happens, heavier snowfall rates will fall causing heavier snowfall totals.  The National Weather Service is concerned that as the main band of snowfall (currently west of here) shifts eastward, strong upper level dynamic forcing combined with frontogenetical lifting along the surface cold front will cause temperatures to fall into the lower 30's for most of the day allowing for snow to stick easily on roads and grassy surfaces.  This intense lifting will cause a very heavy band of snow to form over parts of the area.  Right now the National Weather Service is saying that the threat area stretches from Huntington through Fort Wayne and right along U.S. 24 through Antwerp and right up to Toledo.  If this heavy band of snow would set up, many areas could see up to 4-6 inches of snow.  This seems a little high but it is a possibility.  This band will likely set up around 1 or 2 p.m. and continue for a couple of hours before tapering off in the early evening east of the Indiana/Ohio line.  Tonight, with fresh snowfall, temperatures will fall into the lower 20's and possibly upper teens.  By tomorrow, a fresh polar air mass will be in place across the area, which will cause temperatures to barely make it into the the 30's, with some areas in the upper 20's.  Later this week, another warm up into the 40's will occur, after a clipper brings some light snow to the area.  By New Year's Day, a major trough will set up in the Central Plains, causing a major storm system to form by Sunday and Monday.  At this time, this will likely impact the area with heavy rainfall, but with rapidly falling temperatures with the passage of the storm.  I will keep you updated on this storm threat next week.

Merry Christmas! One last Forecast Update

Merry Christmas to everybody who reads this blog, thank you for coming to listen and read my forecasts everyday.  I hope everyone has a great Christmas even without the snow on the ground.  As for last minute updates to next week's winter storm potential, it looks like the heaviest snow totals will be along and south of U.S. 24.  At this time I would expect at least 2-4 inches of snow, and possibly a lot heavier amounts if the upper level moisture tongue can reach into our area, enhancing the heavy snowfall.  Some of the latest models have trended the storm southward, but this may not end up happening as the NAO is still positive and the AO is negative, causing the southeast ridge to push westward.  At this time, precipitation will start out as mixed Monday night, then quickly change over to all snow after 2 a.m. and snow will persist throughout most of the day Tuesday before tapering off late Tuesday afternoon and evening.  As I said before, snowfall totals will primarily be dependent on how cold it is and the track of the storm.  The snow will begin at an ideal time for snow accumulations, at night, so it will accumulate faster.  Second of all, temperatures Monday night, will be in the mid to upper 20's, allowing for freezing rain, sleet, and snow to mix in and then changing to all snow.  The trickiest part of the forecast will be the track of the storm.  If the track of the storm is further south, I expect snowfall totals to be light, and accumulate to about an inch, or we may end up getting nothing.  If the storm track is farther north, then I expect heavier precipitation totals, along with heavier snowfall accumulations possibly in the range of 4-7 inches or more (this last point depends on if the storm phases with the jet stream faster, and becomes stronger, because if this happens, the storm will track farther northward.)  This will be my last update until probably tomorrow afternoon, just before the storm hits.  Have a safe and Merry Christmas, praising the Lord and his birth!