Significant Icing Event Tomorrow; Heavy Rain Early Next Week

The NWS has issued a winter weather advisory for most, if not all of the forecast region. They are expecting ice totals to accumulate to near 0.1 inches. I'm expecting higher icing totals, as I believe it'll take longer for the warm air mass to begin mixing to the surface, and thus, temperatures will remain below freezing for longer, possibly until after midnight. Even when temperatures go above freezing, freezing rain will persist for several more hours due to the frozen nature of the ground. Thus, icing amounts could be as high as 0.25 inches, especially in light of the recent NAM (which indicates icing amounts of up to or over 0.3 inches, especially north of Route 24). My forecast is calling for 0.1 to 0.25 inches of ice area wide, with some sleet and snow accumulation also possible. By early Monday morning though (around 5 a.m. or so), freezing rain to change over to rain as temperatures rise into the upper 30's. Light to moderate rain showers will persist throughout the day Monday and into the night hours. Rain will continue to persist through Tuesday as another wave of low pressure develops.

Wednesday is when the forecast gets tricky, and rather inconsistent with the models. The GFS indicates that another surface wave of low pressure will develop along the frontal boundary in Eastern Oklahoma and move northeast, rapidly developing into a strong low pressure system. If this were to occur, I would expect another day of highs in the middle 50's on Wednesday. The NAM, on the otherhand indicates that the second wave of low pressure will be weak, and won't cause a secondary warm-up, but will allow the cold front to slide through with heavy rain and a few rumbles of thunder Tuesday night.

Models are more consistent on the arrival of a cold wave for Thursday and Friday. In fact, temperatures could rival that of what we saw during the past week. This time around though, it is likely that we see a more substantial wave of lake effect snow, possibly extending far inland. After that, a snow event is possible for next Saturday ahead of a strong clipper system. Other than that, have a great evening!

Light LES for the weekend/Freezing Rain-Icing Potential Sunday Night

There are a few things I'll discuss this evening with regards to this weekend's weather, and early next week:

First item on the agenda is today's event. Most of the area saw just under an inch of snow, with higher amounts east of Defiance. The storm really did "underperform". One of the major reasons for this (and something I hinted at in my blog post yesterday) is due to the fact that dry air was incredibly strong in the low and mid levels. It was so dry, in fact, that relative humidity levels in the 850 millibar layer were in between 1-10%! That is incredibly dry, and a lot to overcome for only a light snow event. In fact, I was even impressed that the area saw as much as we did see. The lower snowfall totals could have a bigger impact on the weather conditions for early next week as well.

For the weekend. expect periods of light snow showers, especially W of NW Ohio, which will allow for a bit more of an accumulation. For far Western and Northern Ohio, as well as Northeast Indiana, expect an inch or less of lake effect this weekend. Closer to the lake, expect several inches of snow.

Sunday night into Monday looks to get interesting, in regards to wintry precipitation and possible icing. At the current time, it looks like a period of icing is possible. The latest NAM even hints at the potential for several hours of sleet, freezing rain and snow. Right now, it looks like temperatures will be cold enough for a period of moderate snowfall late Sunday afternoon, which will evolve into sleet, and eventually freezing rain by early Monday morning. Snowfall accumulations will likely be near or under one inch, with little or no sleet accumulation. Freezing rain accumulations will be slightly harder to pinpoint, but if I had to make an educated guess, it looks like we have the potential to see over 0.10 inches of ice (which is fairly significant to driving, especially on colder surfaces). This could reek havoc on driving conditions early Monday morning. Farther north, especially in Southern and Central Michigan, there is the potential for a significant ice storm, with over a 0.3 inches of freezing rain accumulation possible north of the Indiana state-line. This will all likely change, but if you live in Michigan, I would pay attention for the possibility of a significant ice storm. 

As for Tuesday and Wednesday, we could be seeing very warm, spring-like conditions, with temperatures well into the 50's (GFS indicates temperatures in the 60's possible, but given the cold ground, this isn't all that likely). Periods of heavier rain and possibly thunderstorms will be likely during the same period before the cold front slides through late Wednesday, ushering much colder weather again. By late week, the area will be back in the deep freeze, with the potential for Lake effect and clippers to bring us light accumulating snow.

Light Snow Tomorrow; Ice/Warm-up Next Week

Cloud cover will overspread the area once again tonight, with light snow spreading into the region by early tomorrow morning, possibly as early as 4 a.m. Light to moderate snow will continue through the early to mid afternoon hours, with the possibility of 1-3 inches by the end of the day. After the main snow bands pass through, lake effect will develop and likely impact quite a few areas for most of Friday night and Saturday, possibly accumulating another inch.

As for tomorrow's main event, there are some discrepancies in snowfall amounts and precipitation amounts that models are forecasting. In the 12z NAM forecast, a good portion of the area will likely receive up to 0.2 inches of precipitation, and combined with 20:1 snow ratios (equating to a very fluffy snowfall) would produce up to four inches of snow across the area. The problem with this is that the 18z run is now forecasting about 0.1 to 0.15 inches of precipitation, which would translate to 2-3 inches of snowfall. For now, I would go conservative with this event, especially due to low level dry air at the onset of this event. I will stick with a conservative amount of 1-2 inches.

As for early next week a low pressure system will traverse the Plains from eastern Colorado into the Great Lakes region, dragging a strong cold front through the region as well.. This will likely bring a bout of showers and thunderstorms to the area on Tuesday and Tuesday night. As for Sunday night and Monday, the warm front will begin to pass through the area, bringing warmer air, and the potential for sleet and freezing rain. At this point, it is rather uncertain how much freezing rain and sleet will fall on the area Monday morning and afternoon, but it could be significant, especially if this system ends up drawing quite a bit of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. If the low level air mass continues to trend colder for Sunday night, we may be in for a bit of snowfall as well before the sleet and freezing rain arrive. Regardless, we could have a rather dangerous commute on our hands Monday morning. While I am not expecting a major ice storm (although it is possible), any amount of ice will make things hazardous. More updates coming soon.