Crazy Forecast. Flooding to Heavy Snow.

Over the next two days, expect some of the craziest weather that has hit around here in a long time.  Everything from flooding to heavy snow will be prevalent across the area.  To begin, I want to start with tonight's forecast.  Right now, current radar is showing bands of moderate to heavy rain beginning to move back into the region.  Here is current radar: NEXRAD radar.  According to the National Weather Service, light rain will overspread the region through the afternoon, bringing only light rainfall amounts for the time being.  By 7 p.m., I expect heavier rain to overspread the region.  Thermal profiles indicate that with the cold temperatures aloft and strong lifting could create pockets of snow tonight, but only accumulating to a dusting and more likely west of here.  The rain will intensify later tonight, becoming heavy areawide and leading to flash flooding by morning in some areas, especially in areas that saw flooding from the storm last week and Sunday night's rainfall.  Winds will also strengthen throughout the night, with gusts to 30 mph.  Overall tonight, I expect rainfall totals near an inch in most areas.  This is one of the reasons that the National Weather Service issued a flood watch.  By Tuesday morning, rain will continue and possibly become heavier during the mid morning hours.  Temperatures will not warm much during the daylight hours, probably dropping throughout the day.  Starting temperatures will be in the lower 40's, and by afternoon, temperatures will probably drop into the mid 30's.  According to some of the computer models, a dry slot may work its way into areas south of Fort Wayne and Van Wert.  This could cause lower rainfall amounts than expected.  I am very cautious about this, mainly because of how much moisture is being brought into this system.  Even if there is a dry slot, I expect the rain to only lighten up or becoming showery for a few hours.  By about 4 or 5 p.m., precipitation will reintensify, with rainfall becoming heavier across the area.  By this time, flooding will be a serious concern, as 2 to possibly 3 inches of rain will have fallen.  Here comes the tricky part in the forecast.  Around this same time, some computer models are suggesting that snow will begin to mix in with the rain, especially just west of Fort Wayne.  Depending on when the rain mixes with the snow, will determine how much snow falls Tuesday Night.  At this time, the mixing will likely begin here in Antwerp around 5 p.m.  By 7 p.m., the rain will completely change over to heavy wet snow, as a large band of heavy snow makes it way into the area.  From past experience, during the type of snow events that happen at the end of heavy rain events, usually the Weather Service and computer models under forecast snowfall amounts.  We'll see what happens, but I think that the snow may be heavier than what many forecasts are predicting.  The snow will likely last through the nighttime hours, probably until about 3 a.m., becoming progressively lighter, with the heaviest snow falling at about 9-11 p.m.  So here are my thoughts on precipitation amounts.  As more data comes in I will update either this evening or tomorrow morning.  For rainfall amounts, most of Northwest Ohio will likely see in the range of 2 to 3 inches with possibly higher amounts.  This will cause flash flooding, flooding on roadways, and moderate flooding along the Maumee River basin.  This greatly exasperate flooding problems right now.  If the dry slot does move farther northward then expected, then expect rainfall amounts of around 2 inches.  As for snowfall amounts, this will be trickier, mainly because early season snow events are harder to forecast with all of the warm air around.  Right now I'm expecting snowfall amounts on the order of around an inch or less for areas east of Defiance.  From a line from Antwerp to the Michigan state line, expect snowfall amounts of around 2-4 inches with possibly higher amounts in areas that experience heavier snow.  This may need to be lowered or brought up especially since Antwerp is right along the line for heavier snowfall.  If the storm shifts farther east, expect as much as 3-6 inches in Antwerp.  If it shifts farther west, expect 1-2 inches in Antwerp.  Along a line from Fort Wayne to Coldwater, Michigan, I expect the heaviest amounts with possibly 3-6 inches falling, and near 5-7 inches in Coldwater.  This is also debatable, so expect changes in the forecast.

The 12z GFS is forecasting 2-4 inches for Antwerp, while areas north and west of Fort Wayne will see 6-10 inches of snow.