A Band of Stronger Storms entering into the region.

Currently, as of 6:40 p.m., a band of thunderstorms is entering into parts of Northwest Ohio.  This band of thunderstorms is causing prolonged periods of heavy rain, and some brief periods of gusty are also possible. This band of thunderstorms is about to enter into Ohio and extends from Fort Wayne northward toward Angola.  According to radar trends, this system of storms will move north of Antwerp, but Hicksville will probably be hit by the heaviest of the rain.  With how slowly this storm is moving and the fact that the storms are moving due north, will allow for the possibility of heavy rainfall accumulations especially in northern Defiance and Williams County.  Over the next several hours, rain and storm activity will diminish quite rapidly, with improving conditions until about midnight.  There may even be a few breaks in the clouds between now and midnight.  After that the upper level low will strengthen, causing a thickening of cloud cover and the formation of rain.  By early morning, rain showers should continue to increase along with the possibility of thunderstorms.  Sunday afternoon, temperatures will only rise to near 66 for a high, while rain and thunderstorm bands will be on the increase.  By Sunday Night are heaviest rainfall will occur before the upper level low begins to move out the region Monday afternoon into Tuesday.
Here is the link to real-time radar for Doppler Radar images: Doppler Radar Display

Official Weather Forecast Through Tuesday.

This forecast is based on MOS guidance, current conditions, and trends.
Sunday: High 68.  Mostly cloudy. Scattered light showers and possibly a thunderstorm, becoming more widespread and numerous by late afternoon and evening.  Chance of rain 60%.
Sunday Night: Low 58.  Overcast. Widespread, numerous showers and thunderstorms, in the form of bands of rain and storms swinging through the area.  Chance of rain 95%.  Heavy rainfall possible.  Rainfall amounts of 1 to 1.5 inches possible in some areas.
Monday: High 70.  Mostly cloudy to Overcast.  Widespread rain and thunderstorms in the morning, becoming scattered and light by afternoon, with some breaks in the clouds. Chance of rain 60%.
Monday Night: Low 53.  Mostly cloudy.  Scattered light showers and possibly a thunderstorm, especially after midnight.  Chance of rain 50%.  Rain will generally increase in coverage in the later evening hours. Rainfall amounts 0.25-0.4 inches.
Tuesday:  High 65. Mostly cloudy to overcast. Numerous showers in the morning, giving way to widespread light rain in the afternoon.  Chance of rain 60%.  Rainfall amounts on the order of 0.25-0.5 inches.
Long-range; Wednesday through Friday: On Wednesday, the upper level low over the area will have moved east of the area.  This will allow skies to clear up and to allow some sunshine into the area for Wednesday afternoon.  By Thursday, expect partly cloudy conditions and highs in the 70's.  By Friday, expect slightly cooler temperatures due to a colder air mass moving into the region.  Highs on Friday will be in the upper 60's.
Synoptic forecast: The upper level low will finally move out of the area by Wednesday afternoon and become part of the mean flow aloft, meaning it will finally dissipate.  Over the next week or so, several shortwaves will move over the area causing several storm systems to form, even though we will be in a warmer pattern.  Then, according to computer models, a major longwave trough will develop over the East Coast.  After this the shortwaves rounding the peak of the ridge in the west will cause the eastward progression of the strong ridge of high pressure from the West to the East, which will influence the much warmer temperatures expected to move into our area.

Break for Tonight. Returning by Saturday Night. Warming trend later

As you may have noticed, the clouds have generally cleared in the last couple of hours as originally forecast.  I expect that conditions should remain partly to mostly cloudy throughout the night, with only a very slight chance of showers.  As the upper level low progresses westward, tomorrow will start out with partly to mostly cloudy conditions along with light winds.  By late afternoon, showers will pop again, as a southerly flow aloft will direct air with greater moisture content into the area.  By nightfall, rain chances will increase, with the added possibility of thunderstorms especially after midnight.  Any rainfall that falls will be light to moderate with the most amount of rain falling will be around 0.5 inches or less (Locally higher amounts possible, but not likely).  By Sunday, rain will be likely (60to 80% chance), with the rain becoming widespread by afternoon.  Thunderstorms will also be likely.  This could cause rainfall amounts to be on the heavy side, up to one inch on Sunday.  Sunday Night, overcast conditions with continued bands of rain is expected.  According to MOS data, rainfall will lighten up Sunday Night, therefore there won't be as much rain.  I expect only 0.25 to 0.5 inches of rain Sunday Night.  By Monday, the rain will redevelop with an even higher likelihood for rain and thunderstorms.  Rain could be pretty heavy on Monday, with rainfall of 0.75 inches to 1.5 inches possible.  By Tuesday, the possibility of scattered thunderstorms will continue, with much lighter rainfall amounts than in recent days.  The possibility of scattered showers and maybe a thunderstorm will continue into Wednesday, before clearing up, as the upper level low associated with this rain moves northeast into Canada.  This will allow the stagnant pattern to break up and move along more swiftly, causing multiple storm systems to affect the region after next week.  Before then, we are expected to experience a short dry period for a few days.

Here is the general forecast through Monday:

Tonight: Low 44.  Partly to Mostly cloudy.  slight chance of showers.  Chance of rain 20%.
Tomorrow: High 65. Mostly Cloudy.  Chance of scattered showers, becoming more widespread by early evening.  Chance of rain 50%.
Tomorrow Night: Low 50.  Overcast throughout the night.  Widespread rain showers likely, possibly becoming a steady rain overnight.  Chance of rain 65%. Rainfall amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 inches.
Sunday: High 67.  Overcast most of the day.  Widespread showers and thunderstorms, more so in the afternoon after 2 p.m.  Chance of rain 65%.  Rainfall amounts 0.75 in. to 1.00 in.
Sunday Night: Low 53. Overcast.  Showers and thunderstorms likely, widespread throughout the area.  Chance of rain 80%. 
Monday: High 68. Mostly cloudy to Overcast.  Showers and thunderstorms likely, widespread throughout most of the day.  Chance of rain 70%.

Friday through Sunday precipitation amounts

Official Weather Forecast Through Saturday Night and Sunday

Here is the official forecast for the area, based on MOS data, computer models, and current conditions and trends.

Friday:  High 64. Cloudy, with showers and maybe a thunderstorm. Clouds decreasing in coverage by mid-afternoon.  Rain chances vary from 30% in western and central areas of Indiana to near 65% in areas east of Defiance, mainly in the morning hours.   Most of the rain will be done before 10 a.m., though more showers could develop.

Friday Night: Low 45.  Mostly cloudy, becoming cloudier in the early morning hours.  slight chance of scattered showers.  Chance of rain 20%.

Saturday: Generally mostly cloudy throughout the day.  High 63-65.  Chance of showers, maybe a thunderstorm.  Chance of rain 30%.

Saturday Night: Variable clouds; partly to mostly cloudy at first becoming mostly cloudy to near overcast overnight.  Rain chances increase.  A chance of showers or a thunderstorm.  Low 44.  Chance of rain 40%.

Sunday: Overcast, with thickening clouds throughout the day.  A chance of showers and thunderstorms, becoming more widespread by afternoon.  High 67. Chance of rain 60%.

Sunday through Wednesday:  An upper level low will remain over the area, bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms daily.  The biggest chance for rain and heavy rain will occur on Sunday and Monday, they could be widespread and heavy at times.  Rain clearing up by Wednesday.  Upper level low will leave the region by mid-late week. 

Long-term pattern: The troughing pattern will give way to a major ridge, as a trough builds into the west.  This will cause above normal temperatures in our area in the first week or so of October.

Official Weather Forecast through Saturday

Here is the official forecast for the area, based on MOS data, computer models, and current conditions and trends.

Tonight: Low 54.  Mostly cloudy in the evening, becoming overcast later.  A 80% chance of widespread rain, becoming more intermittent by morning.  Some heavier pockets of rain. 

Friday:  High 64. Cloudy, with showers and maybe a thunderstorm. Clouds decreasing in coverage by mid-afternoon.  Rain chances vary from 30% in western and central areas of Indiana to near 65% in areas east of Defiance, mainly in the morning hours. 

Friday Night: Low 45.  Mostly cloudy, becoming cloudier in the early morning hours.  slight chance of scattered showers.  Chance of rain 20%.

Saturday: Variable clouds, mainly mostly cloudy throughout the day.  Highs 65-67.  Chance of showers, maybe a thunderstorm.  Chance of rain 30%.

Saturday Night through Tuesday:  An upper level low will remain over the area, bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms daily.  The biggest chance for rain and heavy rain will occur on Sunday and Monday, they could be widespread and heavy at times.  Rain clearing up by Wednesday.  Upper level low will leave the region by mid-late week. 

Long-term pattern: The troughing pattern will give way to a major ridge, as a trough builds into the west.  This will cause above normal temperatures in our area in the first week or so of October.

Forecast Through Friday Night. Update

Over most of the area, temperatures are currently residing in the upper 60's to lower 70's, with the coldest locations over Northwest Indiana.  Dew points are pretty low, mainly in the mid to upper 40's areawide.  Over the next couple of hours, I expect cloud cover to be on the increase, as the first band of precipitation in association with the developing cut-off low advances into the area.  We could have a few showers tonight, but according to radar trends, I expect that most of the rain will remain in central and western Indiana and even then most of the precipitation will have dissipated.  Tonight, lows will only drop into the lower to middle 50's, due to persistent cloud cover moving in from the southwest.  Tomorrow, highs will only reach the lower to middle 60's, depending on the amount of the cloud cover.  I'm expecting overcast conditions to continue through 2 p.m., with thickest cloud cover in the morning hours.  There may be some rain tomorrow especially in Northwest Ohio areas.  My calculated rain chances range from 30% in Northeast Indiana to nearly 70% in eastern parts of Northwest Ohio (Defiance on east).  Rain will generally not be widespread with the rain being more showery in nature, with the greatest chance of precipitation in the early to mid morning hours.  The main band of rain will generally be east of this area.  Friday Night, after a break in rain chances during the afternoon, computer models are forecasting a greater chance of rain by the early evening, with the rain being in the form of showers.  Lows Friday Night will be quite a bit colder than tonight, due to decreasing cloud cover overnight and lower dew points.  Lows will drop to around 44 as the skies clear. 
      Over the weekend, chances of rain will begin to increase each day.  On Saturday, expect mostly cloudy conditions with some scattered showers.  A few heavier showers may pop up to, but that depends on the amount of afternoon heating. On Sunday, rain chances will increase, with showers increasing throughout the day.  Some thunderstorms may also show up to.  By Monday, thunderstorm chances will peak, with widespread rainfall being possible.  Even as rain chances increase, expect temperatures to gradually recover from the mid 60's to the lower 70's by Monday.  Soon this upper level cut-off low will decide to move on with the general flow aloft, bringing back nicer conditions and a faster pattern instead of a more stagnant one.  On a side note, I will have an update to my winter forecast sometime in mid-to late October depending on several things.

snapshot of forecasted upper level low over our area

simulated radar for Friday morning

Frontal passage this afternoon and evening. Much cooler and cloudier weather on the way.

current surface map

Today, a cold front is expected to pass through most of the area before 6 p.m.  With this cold front, I don't expect ANY shower or thunderstorm activity before it passes through, mainly because of limited moisture (upper 50's dew points) not much lifting from the cold front, and the weakening of the strong cyclone over extreme Southern Canada. Some areas east of Defiance may receive a shower or thunderstorm just before the cold front mainly because of better moisture available to lift.  Tonight, the clouds are expected to thicken and increase in coverage as the cyclone continues to occlude.  Along with increasing wind, I do expect lows to fall into the lower to middle 50's.  But the low dew points (dew points are expected to be in the low to middle 40's), the low could fall below this value, maybe as cold as 47 or 48, especially if cloud cover is not as much as expected.  Later, this week, the strong upper level low that is causing this strong system over Canada will develop into a large trough over a large portion of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions, later becoming a rather large cut-off low.  This will cause the weather to stagnate and could become rather cloudy, wet, and chilly for a few days, especially Friday through Sunday, with the pattern continuing into next week.  Due to cold air aloft, any afternoon heating next week could cause daily afternoon showers and thunderstorms, especially since this cut off low is expected to draw in more moisture.  After this, according to the GFSx model, the cut-off low will finally be absorbed into the upper level flow, and the pattern should shift, allowing the ridge over the western ridge to finally move eastward, bringing much warmer weather to the East.

GFS model forecasts