Tricky Forecast.

Right now, moderate to heavy rain is located over most of the area.  This has caused rainfall amounts of one to two inches over most of Northwest Ohio.  One thing that may be a problem is the fact that the dry slot is currently trying to edge into the area, although it is having a hard time of it.  If it does end up moving into the area, expect rain to taper probably by 7 or 8 a.m.  The rain will then move back into the area by 10 a.m., and intensify, and at the same time snow will begin to develop over Western Indiana.  These snow bands will be developing a lot sooner than what was expected last night, as the cold air aloft and at the surface will make snow and convective snow bands favorable to form farther west.  At the same time, heavy rain will persist and intensify after the dry slot moves out, while cold air nudges into the area, dropping temperatures from the upper 30's and lower 40's, to temperatures near freezing by mid-late afternoon.  This will finally allow rain to transition to snow.  Now the National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Watch for most of Northeast Indiana calling for 4-8 inches and possibly more.  I see no reason why they don't issue a winter weather advisory for extreme western Ohio, as models indicate that we could get in on the heavy snow also.  Actually, the NWS states in the forecast that Antwerp will probably have periods of heavy snow tonight, but only a 1- 2 inch accumulation, which is what is indicated by the NAM and the GFS.  At this time, as most models have made an eastward shift in the storm, I think that the NAM and GFS have the snowbands to far west, as they have the cold air entering the region later than what most models do.  My forecast calls for a solid 2-5 inches is possible over extreme western and northern Ohio, while areas east of a line from Defiance to Toledo will receive about an inch or less.  Any towns in between will receive 1-3 inches of icy snow.  Fort Wayne to Angola and Coldwater, will likely see snowfall amounts of 5-8 inches, especially if the heavier banding sets up.  This snow will likely be wet and heavy when it falls and it will likely freeze to the roads after several hours of heavy snowfall.  So for my forecast here it is.  Today I expect the dry slot to move through bringing a temporary end to the heavy rain and flooding.  By 10 a.m. or so, I think the rain will redevelop and reintensify, especially as the low strengthens.  Winds will also increase from the north, with gusts over 35 mph.  Temperatures will be falling slowly throughout the day, and temperatures will probably be near 35 by 2 p.m.  Rainfall amounts between 1-2 inches possible.  Rain will mix with snow by 2 p.m. and completely change over to snow by about 4 p.m.  Rain will not change over to snow for areas east of Paulding until about 5 p.m.  Tonight as the low intensifies, convective heavy snow bands will set up, with the potential for thundersnow, which will enhance snowfall accumulations, especially west of Fort Wayne where the potential for over 10 inches of snow remains a possibility.  These heavy snow bands will move through extreme western Ohio, bringing snowfall rates of 1-2 inches an hour, for a couple of hours, which if the storm is farther east than anticipated, expect these to produce heavy snowfall accumulations.  My forecast is calling for a solid 2-5 inches (this may change by this afternoon, as uncertainties exist) for extreme western Ohio, while in between Antwerp and Defiance, I expect 1-3 inches, and anywhere east of Defiance less than one inch.  From Fort Wayne to Angola and Coldwater, I expect 4-8 inches possibly 10, and farther west over Columbia City and Warsaw, I even expect 6-10 inches. (Again, this forecast may need revised by this afternoon, as uncertainties still exist.)  No matter how much snow we get, I believe the snow will last through 3 a.m. before tapering off, with leftover snow showers for Wednesday.  If anything changes I will have an update by this afternoon.  Stay tuned for further updates.