Well.. That was a pretty failed forecast for me. Talk about getting it wrong!
As for actual snowfall amounts, snow in NW Ohio ranged from a total of 8 inches near Toledo and into extreme Northern Ohio, with Paulding County snowfall ranging from 3 to 5 inches of snow. Allen County (Indiana) and Fort Wayne picked up a decent 4.5 to 6 inches of snow. Areas west didn't do so well due to fractured snowflakes (from the incredible winds), with most west of Fort Wayne picking up snow in the 1-3 inch range (a few isolated totals of 5 inches). In the entire area, even though there was a major dry slot by the afternoon, Lima and West-Central Ohio ended up with a good 9.5-11 inches of snow! All in all, it was still a significant winter storm for the area, given snowfall rates approaching 2 inches at times across a good portion of the area, and high winds, which produced blizzard conditions for long periods of times (the only reason a blizzard warning was not issued was because low visibilities below 1/4 of a mile did not last for more than 2 hours).
As for the upcoming pattern, expect very cold weather to continue to impact the area. Temperatures over the next few days will likely not hit 30. On Saturday, it is possible that temperatures hit 30, but its not likely due to cloud cover. Forecast models are beginning to nail down the timing of an arctic wave early next week, which will likely drop temperatures into the lower 20's and possibly upper 10's for a few days. After that, it is uncertain what will happen. The NAO is likely to go positive at the same time the PNA is going to go positive. What this will cause is a large trough over the Eastern United States, and a large ridge of high pressure over the West Coast. This will set up a dry, very cold pattern for the area, with only a weak potential for clipper systems. After that, its likely that the NAO goes negative once again, shifting the trough west back into the region. This could happen around late next week, which would bring the storm track back into the area, and a better possibility for snowfall. All in all, winter has finally arrived and it looks to stay for at least the next month!
As for actual snowfall amounts, snow in NW Ohio ranged from a total of 8 inches near Toledo and into extreme Northern Ohio, with Paulding County snowfall ranging from 3 to 5 inches of snow. Allen County (Indiana) and Fort Wayne picked up a decent 4.5 to 6 inches of snow. Areas west didn't do so well due to fractured snowflakes (from the incredible winds), with most west of Fort Wayne picking up snow in the 1-3 inch range (a few isolated totals of 5 inches). In the entire area, even though there was a major dry slot by the afternoon, Lima and West-Central Ohio ended up with a good 9.5-11 inches of snow! All in all, it was still a significant winter storm for the area, given snowfall rates approaching 2 inches at times across a good portion of the area, and high winds, which produced blizzard conditions for long periods of times (the only reason a blizzard warning was not issued was because low visibilities below 1/4 of a mile did not last for more than 2 hours).
As for the upcoming pattern, expect very cold weather to continue to impact the area. Temperatures over the next few days will likely not hit 30. On Saturday, it is possible that temperatures hit 30, but its not likely due to cloud cover. Forecast models are beginning to nail down the timing of an arctic wave early next week, which will likely drop temperatures into the lower 20's and possibly upper 10's for a few days. After that, it is uncertain what will happen. The NAO is likely to go positive at the same time the PNA is going to go positive. What this will cause is a large trough over the Eastern United States, and a large ridge of high pressure over the West Coast. This will set up a dry, very cold pattern for the area, with only a weak potential for clipper systems. After that, its likely that the NAO goes negative once again, shifting the trough west back into the region. This could happen around late next week, which would bring the storm track back into the area, and a better possibility for snowfall. All in all, winter has finally arrived and it looks to stay for at least the next month!
A detailed post will be coming this afternoon, discussing the details and dynamics of the storm system, as well as what went wrong for the area. I will also be posting pictures from around the region of the snow.
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