Top Four Misconceptions About Weather Forecasting

Whenever I tell someone that I aspire to be a meteorologist as my future career goal, I'm usually faced with a lot of the same questions and statements, ranging from the rather insulting to the more curious inquiries:

Weather forecasting is the only job where you can be wrong 50% of the time and still keep your job.

Meteorologists are never right.

It must be easy having their job.

Do meteorologists predict meteor showers (or earthquakes, tsunamis, eclipses, and other physical phenomena)?

How can anyone predict the future? 

And there are many more statements that I have had asked to me [and about other meteorologists] over the past several years. In order to help remedy this situation, I thought it would be nice to write an article explaining what forecasting is and isn't, as well as clearing up some common misconceptions. While I won't necessarily address all of the concerns listed above, I will be addressing more common [and reasonable] sentiments about the field of weather forecasting.

1. Meteorologists are hardly ever accurate.

This is the common profile of the meteorologist as known and expressed by the general public. Meteorologists are generally the punchline of many a joke, especially those that make light of our inaccurate forecasts.

However, this is not necessarily true. Yes, it is true that there are many forecasts that we screw up and there are many times when we fail to admit that we've screwed up. But for the average operational forecaster, either working for a private firm, a broadcast station, or for the U.S. Department of Commerce, there is generally a lot more forecast skill and accuracy than one would expect (as a side note, I would like to point out that there is a major distinction between 'skill' and 'accuracy' which won't be addressed here, but it is possible for a forecaster to have high accuracy, but low skill in their forecasting, just as it is possible to have high skill, but lower accuracy). What many do not often account for is the fact that forecasters do a lot more than just tell us when the next storm will hit or how much snowfall we will get from a winter weather event, but also make daily forecasts. Daily forecasts generally consist of the high temperature, the low temperature, wind speeds/direction, cloud cover, and the chance of precipitation. For the vast majority of situations, forecasters are generally fairly accurate. It is only when abnormal weather shows up that forecast skill and accuracy begins to vary.

Even then, however, forecast accuracy has strongly improved over the past several decades. Studies and assessments from the last ten years ultimately show that forecast skill and accuracy has markedly improved, especially in forecasting events that occur in the short term, ranging from six hours in the future to as much as two days. This is especially true for rapidly developing severe weather situations and mesoscale winter weather features. In all likelihood, this is due to the development of high-resolution short-range numerical weather models that are specifically designed to forecast small-scale phenomena which 'larger' global models cannot handle. Computer models will be addressed below.

In all, forecasts are generally not as inaccurate as everyone supposes. Most only remember 'that one time' when the forecaster screwed up on a major weather event. The general public usually doesn't remember when the forecaster actually got the forecast right, which is probably a majority of the time.

Note: There is still some debate about whether forecast accuracy has actually improved over the last ten years [from 2005-2015], but I can't find any sources on the issue. What I do know, however, is that the National Weather Service has come under heavy criticism from various meteorologists about their training process and their accuracy.

2. Forecasters just make up numbers from nothing. Anyone can do what they do. 

Although I haven't heard this one from anyone in particular, I think there is a general confusion from a lot of people about what exactly forecasters do and how the forecasts are even made. I will address this issue here and in the next section.

Here's the problem: A lot of time and effort often goes into the making of a forecast [or at least it should for any good forecaster] and is really more complicated than what one imagines. There are times when it certainly feels like forecasters are simply making up numbers just for the sake of getting a forecast out. There are even times when this is all a forecaster can do. When the weather pattern is relatively stable and nothing much is changing, this is really all the forecaster can do.

When a particularly dangerous and abnormal situation comes up, this is when forecasting skills are best tested for their accuracy. A forecaster must learn to draw upon not only his conceptual and scientific knowledge of the atmosphere. They must also be able to learn from their experience and apply what they learn to new situations. Finally, the forecaster must rely upon his or her intuition in order to make the final decision in the forecast. When dealing with intense situations, like major winter storms or imminent severe weather, these decisions have to be made regardless of what the actual data shows. The data only shows a part of the whole story; the forecaster has to be able to connect the data with their own experience and make a quick decision.

This goes along with general forecast accuracy; sometimes the forecast is inaccurate because of the precautions that the forecaster personally took when publishing the forecast. It is always better to remain on the safe side during a dangerous situation than to not say anything at all.

3. There's no way you can predict the future! 

While this is technically true, I think the objection misunderstands the nature of the practice of weather forecasting. Weather forecasting isn't so much about 'foretelling the future' as it is simulating the future state of the atmosphere based upon known data from the present. It isn't so much predicting what will happen as it is trying to establish connections between weather phenomena.

As mentioned above, the main reason why modern forecasting has made great strides in forecasting is due to the advent and use of computer technology in forecasting. Because of the impressive advances in computer power, calculation, and storage, meteorologists have used these computers to simulate the future state of the atmosphere.

How is this possible? In the early 1900's, scientists, who became the pioneers for the modern field of meteorology and atmospheric science [this is one of the newer sciences], derived a series of equations dependent upon Newton's laws of motion and thermodynamics that were able to 'describe' (in a sense) certain scalar and vector quantities in the atmosphere. These included, but are not limited to, variables such as temperature, moisture, wind, pressure, etc. Some of these scientists proposed that, in theory, if one could solve these equations and then duplicate this process, one could forecast the state of the atmosphere at a given future time period. One particular scientist attempted this process by hand, trying to forecast the weather for a location in France for 48 hours out; it took this particular scientist nearly two years before he could finally come up with a forecast! This might seem like a huge failure, but in reality, it was one of the biggest breakthroughs in modern scientific thought. This precipitated action by other scientists to try to solve this dilemma by using different methods for solving these equations.

Finally, with the advent of computers, they were utilized to attempt to address this issue. The first model 'forecasts' were run in the early 1950's on some of the first supercomputers. The forecast was crude and very inaccurate, but it was a breakthrough in modern forecasting. Over the next decade, forecast accuracy improved remarkably with these primitive equation models (as they were called). While they were not used to forecast variables such as surface temperature and wind directly, they were used to forecast the general upper level weather pattern, which allowed forecasters to make more reasonable predictions about imminent weather.

Now, forecast models are run on the world's fastest supercomputers, making billions upon billions of calculations in a very short period of time. These model forecasts, in the United States at least, are produced every 6 hours [at 00, 06, 12, and 18 GMT], and can span either the entire world [as in the infamous Global Forecasting System] or simply North America [as in the North American Model or the NAM]. Forecasters then take this data and integrate them into their own decision making process for the final forecast product.

Unfortunately, numerical weather prediction doesn't solve all the troubles of the forecaster. Model forecasts are limited by the data they ingest, their own physical parameters and methods of solving the equations (which differ from model to model). Plus, there is simply too much chaotic motion in the atmosphere for any model simulator to deal with. This is why human forecasters will always be needed. Unlike computers, humans possess the necessary memory and intuition needed for the final forecast to be successful.

4. Meteorology is an easy career path
 

Unfortunately, it isn't very easy at all. For those who become meteorologists by going the traditional route, by attending college and acquiring a B.S., the road isn't easy. Meteorology is a field of science that draws upon many other different fields. In a way, it is very interdisciplinary in comparison to other fields of science. Because of this, meteorology majors are required to be rigorous in mathematics and must be able to have computer and programming skills. They must also have additional advanced knowledge in fields like physics and chemistry, both very important fields for understanding atmospheric processes. Meteorologists must also have a working knowledge of geography and topography. They must be familiar with social media, have writing and communication skills, and should be familiar with broadcast journalism.

Even for the meteorologist that does not take the traditional college route, they must have a working knowledge of all the fields mentioned above. Furthermore, a meteorologist who is not college educated has to pass the American Meteorological Society test that allows one to become a certified meteorologist. Thus, they must be able to demonstrate that they have working experience and knowledge in operational forecasting [which is the most practical application of the field].

Even after all the educational requirements are completed, it's often very difficult for students to find jobs in the field of meteorology. In years past, the federal government has been the largest employer of meteorologists, but with freezes in spending and the cutting of funds to branches like the National Weather Service, there isn't as much hiring anymore. "Tenured' or experienced meteorologists generally remain with the weather service for long periods of time which doesn't allow for a lot of flexibility for incoming meteorologists.

Fortunately, the private forecasting field is expanding for incoming meteorology students. Energy corporations, private firms, insurance companies, and others are now looking for more meteorologists to hire. These companies benefit from both the short term and long-term forecasts that meteorologists can give, allowing them to make better and wiser decisions.

Conclusion
 

With how difficult forecasting and the career field can be, why does anyone bother becoming a meteorologist in the first place? Mainly because most of us enjoy what we do. I have talked to many meteorologists and nearly every single one that I have talked to have always had a passion for the weather. One thing that characterizes many meteorologists is the 'in-born' passion that many of us had as children. This is one field that if you don't truly love it you shouldn't go into it. It isn't for the light-hearted and it certainly isn't for those who only give lip service to the passion. But for anyone who truly loves nature and the outdoors, meteorology is certainly a field that is both practical and awe-inspiring to study and admire.