Wild storm forecast this week. Heavy rain, high winds, and even snow!

According to computer forecast models, a large storm may develop as a low in the southern plains moves northeastward bringing with it heavy rain.  This storm system will initially weaken, as indicating by the GFS model, as it moves northeast into southern Ohio, bringing rain and breezy conditions to the area.  After that the model forecasts that a rather intense low pressure system will develop just off the east coast of North Carolina, while a secondary low develops in Kentucky and moves due northward.  The secondary low is the one that will concern us, as the East Coast low will likely remain at an intensity of 992 millibars or weaken as it heads up the East Coast.  The secondary low over Kentucky will likely move due northward, right into Central Ohio.  As it moves northward, the GFS model predicts that the low will deepen to about 981 millibars while it is over Sandusky, Ohio.  During this time period, I believe that we will have heavy rain, which could eventually accumulate to 2-3 inches by Thursday evening when the rain is expected to end.  As the low deepens, I also expect wind speeds to increase rapidly, especially Wednesday into Thursday.  I believe sustained winds may be as high as 35 or 40 mph, with gusts as high as 50 mph, but there is much uncertainty in this forecast.  During the night Wednesday, there is the possibility that the rain changes over to moderate to heavy wet snow for short period of time, possibility accumulating in some areas, but this is pretty unlikely as the air mass will likely be too warm for any snow.  But, if the low pressure system and the rain sticks around for longer than previously thought, there could be a period of time where it snows on Thursday night, as temperatures will likely approach freezing.  Even without the snow, prepare for an exciting week as heavy rain and high winds will likely disrupt your plans.

Snow is a possibility this Week! Official Forecast through Thursday.

For all you snow lovers out there, this may be exciting for you.  This week, some computer models are indicating that snow showers may fall in the lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on the back edge of a storm system expected to form in the Ohio Valley on Tuesday, and expected to move into the East.  According to these models, these snow showers may form as a very cold air mass descends out of Canada, which may not allow high temperatures on some days this week to make it out of the 40's, especially on Wednesday and Thursday.  Right now, 850 millibar temperatures forecasts support some back edge snow showers from any left over rain showers, but surface temperatures may not support this possibility as highs will be around 50 in most areas.  The best chance for a snow shower or two would be probably Tuesday or Wednesday Night, as temperatures get pretty close to freezing.  If anything, the snow will be mixed in with a rain shower.  So it may not be that exciting, but it may be a precursor to an early winter!  Even without any snow falling, expect cool temperatures for most of this week, with Monday probably being the best day with partly to mostly cloudy skies with highs in the lower 60's.  For the rest of the week, expect highs in the lower to middle 50's, under mostly cloudy skies, with multiple chances of showers.  By the end of the week, temperatures may moderate slightly to the lower 60's, but this will occur as another storm system enters the area.

Official Forecast through Thursday

Sunday Night: Low 39.  Mostly cloudy in the early evening hours, becoming partly to mostly clear after midnight.  Slight chance of showers early, especially in southern areas.  Canadian storm system will begin to move eastward, allowing another storm system to develop in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.

Monday: High 61.  Partly cloudy.  Breezy, with winds from the west.  Storm system begins to develop in Ohio Valley.

Monday Night: Low 41.  Partly cloudy at first becoming overcast, with a scattered showers developing after midnight.

Tuesday: High 50. Overcast throughout the day.  Showers early, becoming a widespread, steady rain by afternoon.  Chance of rain 70%.

Wednesday: High 50.  Mostly cloudy to overcast.  Lingering showers and some heavier pockets of rain.  Chance of rain 50%.  Maybe a snowflake or two at night.

Thursday: High 52.  Mostly cloudy.  Some lingering showers, but they should be scattered to isolated in nature.  Chance of rain 30%.