Forecast for the Next Three Days.

Many you have heard me say this.  I have finally given up on winter ever coming.  It's too late in the year for any nasty polar outbreaks to hit the area due to the high sun angle.  The higher sun angle is able to modify arctic air faster than a mid winter sun, causing not so extreme temperatures.  With virtually no snow cover and the lack of cold air already this winter, soil temperatures are extremely warm for this time of year, which also is a contributing factor to air mass modification.  Any polar outbreaks from here on out will be rather short lived and weak, with temperatures barely below freezing in most cases.  In a few days or perhaps today, I would like to write an article on the main reasons why this winter was not forecasted well and what went wrong.  For all you snow lovers (like me), any snowfall events will quickly melt away, because of warm soil and the lack of arctic air.  I am truly sorry for how badly my forecast was for the winter.
   Back to the present situation, even with the lack of winter across the country, some very interesting things are going on.  One of them is a rapidly strengthening storm system across the Gulf Coast in Deep South.  Here is a surface pressure image from the storm system.

As you can see a fairly decently sized storm system is located along the Gulf Coast.  This type of storm system is currently being directly fueled by the traditional jet stream dynamics, but it is being fueled by latent heat release from a enormous complex of thunderstorms north of the warm front over Louisiana and Mississippi.  This thunderstorm complex will be the culprit in very heavy rainfall and flash flooding across a large part of the Deep South.   Below is the latest radar image from the storm system.

When thunderstorm complexes strengthen in the vicinity of an upper level disturbance, the release of latent heat from condensed water strengthens the upper level disturbance, causing the surface low to strengthen, which tends to cause a strengthening of the thunderstorms in a positive feedback process, that could cause this storm system to become incredibly strong.  The release of latent heat in the Deep South, along with a baroclinic wave moving across our area currently, is also causing the rapid strengthening of an upper level jet streak currently located right over us.  This could have serious implications for the storm in the south, as the jet streak could cause explosive development of this storm system and possibly a much stronger storm affecting the Mid-Atlantic states by tonight and tomorrow.  Shown below is the current jet streak.

As you can see, right over us, about 10 kilometers above the surface, winds are raging at over 160 knots (184 mph).  It seems to me as if the jet streak is coupling with the one seen over Northern Mexico to produce these strong thunderstorms and bow echoes over the Gulf of Mexico.  As the day progresses, the storm will shift north and eastward (but not affecting our area).  Eventually, this storm will strengthen as it heads into the Mid-Atlantic states, where it will meet with a baroclinic wave currently moving over Northern Ohio.  This baroclinic wave will cause the temperatures to drop significantly not only here, but in the Mid-Atlantic states as well, paving the way for a possible snowstorm over the Appalachian Mountains and parts of Virginia, North Carolina, Tennessee and Kentucky.  Models are suggesting that the cold air will not be able to overtake the storm and cause a major snowstorm, with the cold air only clipping the edges of the storm and producing localized heavy snow in the mountains.  But if the storm continues to strengthen as it has been, a much bigger snowstorm may occur, and with even significant accumulations of snow at the surface in the Virginia and North Carolina.
    As for the forecast in our region, I expect a front to move through in the next hour or so, causing the development of stratocumulus and cumulus (this started to occur).  As the day progresses,  I believe that most of the day will be mostly cloudy, because clouds developing in the (relatively) unstable air mass behind the front, and because of lake enhancement.  Low level temperatures and the relatively unstable air mass will not be enough to generate a lake effect snow event, but convective clouds will develop and move off the lake and into most areas of Northwest Ohio and Indiana.  Although I cannot rule out a stray snow flurry or two.  By tonight, skies will clear up once again, with temperatures dropping into the lower 20's.  Tomorrow through Monday sunny skies will prevail with temperatures in the mid to upper 30's.

Support the National Weather Service.

As I have found out this afternoon, Congress has proposed to make a massive budget cut to the National Weather Service's budget.  For the meteorological community and the public, this terrible news, as some very useful weather products will be cut.  This will affect forecasts in a very bad way, because most of the meteorological community uses National Weather Service products for their own forecasts.  Weather disasters in the future may be much more damaging and life-threatening because of less forecasting.  We all remember the terrible tornado outbreaks of last year, killing over 550 people, the most in one season since the mid 1930's.  If forecasting budgets are cut, the risk for more life threatening situations becomes even higher, and many more unnecessary deaths will result.  If you want continued support for the National Weather Service, so that they may continue to improve their forecast accuracy, go to the White House's website and the sign the petition to stop the budget cuts to the National Weather Service.  Here is the link to the website. White House National Weather Service Petition (note: you will need a white house account to sign this petition.  To create a white house account is free and all you need to create an account is to give them your e-mail address and create a password.)

Forecast Update.

Most people in Northwest Ohio and Northeast Indiana probably woke up to one or two inches of fluffy snow on the ground this morning.  This snow was due to a weak upper level system embedded in the 700 millibar wind flow.  Fairly strong frontogenesis in the middle levels earlier this morning caused heavier bands of snow to develop in far eastern Indiana and Northwest Ohio, causing higher snowfall totals than most other regions.  In Antwerp, I have measured over two inches of snow on the ground, (which is what most areas reported.  Stronger forcing with this system stayed well to our south, with some cities such as St. Louis, picking up 3-5 inches of snow from the system.  All in all, this was a fairly decent, especially since it was produced by a very weak system, which would normally not produce this much precipitation.  As this system moves out, warm air advection will take place on the back side, causing temperatures to gradually rise across the area.  Due to snowmelt, however, this warming will be reduced at the surface, while in the low to mid levels of the atmosphere, temperatures continue warming.  With the amount of moisture in the atmosphere right now, due to this low level cold layer, expect as the snow ends, for the snow to change over to light freezing rain and possibly freezing fog.  By tonight, enough dry air will have arrived in the area, to cause skies to clear and temperatures to fall back into the twenties.  Tomorrow, temperatures will warm nicely under partly cloudy skies into the upper 30's and lower 40's (which may be too warm, as snow melt will cause lower temperatures).  By tomorrow afternoon, skies will begin to cloud up once again as the next system approaches.  This system, possibly a much stronger system than today's, will move into the Central Plains and Midwest.  This southern stream system will at least undergo partial phasing with the northern stream system, causing a fairly strong storm system ahead of the upper level disturbance.  Currently, the system is spinning in California, causing showers and some snow in the mountains.  Right now, the GFS model is indicating that the two systems (one in the Northern Rockies and Canada, and the other in Southern California) will not undergo phasing (two or more disturbances combining their energy and becoming one relatively strong storm system), causing a weak surface system to bring the area some rain Wednesday into Thursday.  I am going to rule out the GFS for now, as the latest upper air analysis shows that these systems are in close enough proximity to phase with each other over the Great Plains.  It all depends on how quickly the stronger southern stream disturbance scoots itself out of the American Southwest and into the Great Lakes.  This would be the solution of the ECMWF which shows a much stronger storm system, bringing heavier rain and stronger winds to the region.  If a stronger storm system, and much more powerful snowstorm would hit the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes, so we will have to keep our eyes on the situation.  In my opinion, the two systems will phase with each other, causing a strong storm system to move across the area.  By late Wednesday evening, these two systems will begin producing overcast conditions and showers across the area.  Overnight Wednesday, expect periods of moderate to heavy rain at times, with maybe an embedded thunderstorm (according to the Storm Prediction Center).  Overall rainfall will be in the range of a half inch to three-quarters of an inch, with some locally higher amounts also possible.  By Thursday morning, rain bands will still exist across the area, with the possibility of strong mid and low level frontogenesis causing the formation of heavy rain and possibly a rain/heavy snow mix especially northwest of Fort Wayne.  The low pressure center will pass through the area by Thursday mid morning, causing the dry slot to move through also, bringing a quick end to any precipitation.  Some precipitation may return for the afternoon in the comma head, but any additional precipitation will be fairly light, with a rain/snow mix possible.
   After this, a turbulent pattern will finish out the rest of the week and persist into next week, as the northern stream becomes dominant and becomes very strong.  In my opinion, this will lead inevitably lead to a meridional pattern, which is conducive for storms and SOME winter weather.  So next week and beyond, I believe that winter will go out with a big bang, with not only some last minute winter weather but maybe even some violent severe weather by the beginning of March.  As for the rest of spring, the effects of La Nina will continue on, leading to yet another wet and stormy spring, though it will probably be much warmer than last spring.  Severe weather will also be frequent around here during the mid and late spring.

More forecasts and Posts Coming Soon!

I am truly sorry for not posting this week, as I have been very busy with many things.  For right now, I will give a very brief forecast and more details will come either tomorrow or Tuesday.  After a very nice day today, tomorrow, skies will begin to cloud up, as the next system moves just south of the region.  By Monday night, periods of snow will arrive in the area, accumulating 1-2 inches, with heaviest snowfall accumulations occurring south of Route 24.  Snowfall will last through most of the day Tuesday, with most of the snow falling before 11 a.m.  By Wednesday, conditions will clear up once again, but clouds from the next storm system moving into the region by evening.  On Thursday, it looks as if another, possibly much stronger, storm system is likely to affect the area.  At this time, it looks like a rain or snow mix event, with a significant amount of precipitation possible.  More than likely, as we have seen with most storm systems this winter, it will be a mix event with everything changing to rain.  By the end of the storm system, snow may mix back in Friday before clearing up.  It is possible that the storm changes track, causes a much more significant winter weather event for the area.  With my next update, I will give more details as to what will happen with this next storm.