Official Forecast through Tuesday.

Right now, light to moderate winds and clear skies have allowed for very warm temperatures over most areas.  Most areas have risen into the lower 80's, with a few locations in the upper 70's.  Expect temperatures to drop quickly outside especially during the football games, so keep a jacket especially since temperatures will be in the low to mid 60's by 10 p.m.  Overnight, light winds and low dew points in the lower 50's, will allow temperatures to drop rapidly into the lower 50's.  Over the next several days, through next Tuesday, expect much of the same weather, with clear skies, light winds, and warm temperatures
Friday Night: Low 52. Mostly clear with light southwesterly winds bringing in a very comfortable warm air mass.
Saturday: High 82-84 (isolated areas may hit 84 or 85).  Very warm and comfortable day, as skies are still sunny to mostly sunny and warm southerly winds bring in a warm air mass.
Saturday Night: Low 55. Mostly Clear  Ridge is still in place over the area, but it shifts so that there are southerly winds in all levels of the atmosphere.  Trough in the west brings very stormy conditions to the West.
Sunday: High 81. Mostly sunny.  Very large and amplified ridge still in place.  Trough in west amplifies, causing an amplification of the ridge over our area.  Temperatures increase along with southerly winds.
Sunday Night: Low 55.  Mostly clear. Light winds from the southwest.  Ridge begins to move out of the area.
Monday: High 80. Partly cloudy.  Ridge still in place, as trough over the west moves into the Rockies, causing periods of severe weather over the plains.  Winds from the south.  Ridge begins to move out of the area and break as large trough makes its way into the Plains.
Monday Night: Low 54.  Partly cloudy. Clouds begin to increase overnight, as storm system in the plains strengthens.
Tuesday: High 77.  Clouds increasing throughout the day, becoming partly to mostly cloudy.  Storm system approaching from the plains, bringing the chance of rain by late evening and the overnight hours.

Official Forecast through Monday

Official Forecast

Wednesday Night: Low 49. Mostly clear, with surface high pressure causing westerly winds.  Upper level ridge continues to move eastward, causing warmer temperatures to move in.

Thursday: High 81. Mostly sunny, a ridge over the area keeps our temperatures above normal and skies clear.  Light winds from from the south. 

Thursday Night: Low 52.  Mostly clear.  Light southerly winds.  Ridge is still over the area keeping warm temperatures in place.

Friday: High 81. Mostly sunny, again, with warm southerly winds in place.  Ridge still in place over the area, blocking storm systems into Canada and allowing for sunny conditions once again.
 Friday Night: Low 53. Mostly clear with light southwesterly winds bringing in a very comfortable warm air mass.
Saturday: High 82-84 (isolated areas may hit 84 or 85).  Very warm and comfortable day, as skies are still sunny to mostly sunny and warm southerly winds bring in a warm air mass.
Saturday Night: Low 55. Mostly Clear  Ridge is still in place over the area, but it shifts so that there are southerly winds in all levels of the atmosphere.  Trough in the west brings very stormy conditions to the West.
Sunday: High 83. Mostly sunny.  Very large and amplified ridge still in place.  Trough in west amplifies, causing an amplification of the ridge over our area.  Temperatures increase along with southerly winds.
Monday: High 82. Mostly sunny.  Ridge still in place, as trough over the west moves into the Rockies, causing periods of severe weather over the plains.  Winds from the south.
Long range forecast: Right now, its looking like the ridge will stay in place over the area through next week, as a trough attempts to push it out of the area. It is unclear what will happen right now, as computer models yesterday said the ridge would stay in place and today the models are showing that a major trough will develop in the area for a few days.  This type of trough is different from the cut-off low from last week.  This trough will be very progressive, meaning it will produce some pretty big storm systems but it will move out of the area quickly.  After this, another trough is expected to build in the west, allowing a reamplification of the ridge with warmer than normal temperatures prevailing.

Official Forecast through Sunday.

Tuesday Night: Low 47.  Partly cloudy in the evening, with clouds clearing up as upper level low moves off the east coast. 
Wednesday: High 77. Mostly sunny, with a few clouds from time to time. Upper level ridge beginning to move over the area, allowing much warmer temperatures. 
Wednesday Night: Low 49. Mostly clear, with surface high pressure causing warm southerly winds.  Upper level ridge continues to move eastward, causing warmer temperatures to move in.

Thursday: High 78. Mostly sunny, a ridge over the area keeps our temperatures above normal and skies clear.  Light winds from from the south-southeast. 

Thursday Night: Low 52.  Mostly clear.  Light southerly winds.  Ridge is still over the area keeping warm temperatures in place.

Friday: High 80. Mostly sunny, again, with warm southerly winds in place.  Ridge still in place over the area, blocking storm systems into Canada and allowing for sunny conditions once again.
 Friday Night: Low 53. Mostly clear with light southwesterly winds bringing in a very comfortable warm air mass.
Saturday: High 80.  Very warm and comfortable day, as skies are still sunny to mostly sunny and warm southerly winds bring in a warm air mass.
Saturday Night: Low 55.  Ridge is still in place over the area, but it shifts so that there are southerly winds in all levels of the atmosphere.  Trough approaches the Central Plains.

Snowfall records at Fort Wayne. Comparison of Last Winter to other Winters

As all of you probably, the winter of 2010-2011 was a very snowy season here in Northwest Ohio and Northeast Indiana.  At one point in the winter you might've actually thought that we must be breaking snowfall records.  Well, I'm here to tell you that you were right.  According to the National Weather Service's last publication of snowfall for each year since 1943, with seasonal and July through June snowfall records back to 1941, the year 2011 has had 35.7 inches of snow, which is actually right near the average of 35.1 inches.  The reason for this is because in March, Fort Wayne is expected to receive approximately 6.3 inches of snow, but this March we had only 1.2 inches and that occurred right after a storm system brought heavy rainfall to the area on March 6.  In April, we didn't even see a trace of snow, which further brought snowfall totals down for the year.  Even though it seemed like a snowy winter, in reality the snowfall for this year is only just above normal.  It is likely though, according to what long-range meteorologists are predicting for December, we could have quite a bit of snow during the month, closer to 15 inches, which is much above the normal of 7.4 inches for December.  This will probably lead snow totals for this year to near 50 inches which we haven't seen in at least 15 years.  If you look at the snow totals another way such as total snowfall from July of one year to June of the next year.  This way you can get accurate snowfall totals for the entire winter season.  This July through June period we had an amazing 46.5 inches of snow, which the last time we had this much snow it was in 2002, and even then they had 46.7 inches of snow.  Before that, it has been since 1983-84 that we have seen this much snow, with 49.1 inches of snow falling throughout the season.  Another measure of snowfall is the winter total snowfall, where the months that snowfall is logged in is December, January, and February, the core winter months.  Last winter season, Fort Wayne logged 45.3 inches of snow, which means that most of last winter's snow fell during the core winter months.  What this means with global warming will be discussed in later article, but I will tell you this that if nearly 98% of our yearly snowfall is falling in only three months, that means that 9 out of the 12 months of the year here at Fort Wayne are getting warmer, but the core winter months are getting colder.  Anyway, back to the point, this 45.3 inches snow that fell during the winter months was the third greatest snowfall during these three months in Fort Wayne's history, behind the winter of 1977-1978 (49.3 inches) and the winter of 1981-1982 (61.2 inches).  According to my forecast, and many other meteorologists' forecasts, I believe that next winter, we may have even more snowfall than last winter, especially in the months of January and February.  According to some meteorologists, we may have some blockbuster storms this winter which could be much like the 2011 Groundhog Day Blizzard, not just one of them, but two or even three of them.  This winter could be even worse than last winter, which would be almost unimaginable.
If you want to know more about snowfall during past winters at Fort Wayne, visit this link: Snowfall Fall records at Fort Wayne; and then click on "Fort Wayne snowfall records" and you will find a PDF document that tells you past snowfall information.

Official Forecast through Saturday.

Monday Night: Low 44.  Mostly clear at first, but high clouds increasing somewhat overnight, due to proximity of upper level low over the East Coast. No precipitation expected. Northwest winds, becoming more northerly at 5 mph.  Very nice and comfortable night.
Tuesday: High 73. Partly cloudy for the most of the day.  Upper level low begins to move off the East Coast, allowing for height rises and warmer temperatures.  Winds from the north at 10 mph. Very comfortable, warm day to be outside.
Tuesday Night: Low 52.  Partly cloudy in the evening, with clouds clearing up as upper level low moves off the east coast. 
Wednesday: High 75. Mostly sunny, with a few clouds from time to time. Upper level ridge beginning to move over the area, allowing much warmer temperatures. 
Wednesday Night: Low 53. Mostly clear, with surface high pressure causing warm southerly winds.  Upper level ridge continues to move eastward, causing warmer temperatures to move in.

Thursday: High 77. Mostly sunny, a ridge over the area keeps our temperatures above normal and skies clear.  Light winds from from the south-southeast. 

Thursday Night: Low 52.  Mostly clear.  Light southerly winds.  Ridge is still over the area keeping warm temperatures in place.

Friday: High 78. Mostly sunny, again, with warm southerly winds in place.  Ridge still in place over the area, blocking storm systems into Canada and allowing for sunny conditions once again.
 Friday Night: Low 55. Mostly clear with light southwesterly winds bringing in a very comfortable warm air mass.
Saturday: High 80.  Very warm and comfortable day, as skies are still sunny to mostly sunny and warm southerly winds bring in a warm air mass.

Forecast through Friday, October 7, 2011.

This morning, as most of you are well aware, temperatures did not get as cold as was predicted.  In fact, around the Fort Wayne area, temperatures only dropped to near 37 in most areas.  Some areas farther west of Fort Wayne, such as central Indiana, dropped to near freezing for lows.  In seems as if the upper level low over the East Coast, was closer to the area than was originally expected.  This caused higher dew points in the area, and this caused much warmer low temperatures than was originally expected.  With this in mind, since the upper level low was closer than expected, and according to satellite imagery, this upper level low looks like it may be building westward very slowly.  By tomorrow, this retrograding (moving westward) motion should stop and the upper level low should begin to move eastward off the east coast, but it will continue to affect the weather over most of the East for the next several days.  Tonight, as this low continues to build westward, I expect an increase in cloud cover.  This increase in high and mid level clouds, plus the fact that dew points will be increasing will lead to morning lows tomorrow only in the low 40's, with some areas, especially west of Fort Wayne, seeing temperatures into the upper 30's.  This will GREATLY limit the potential for frost tonight, so expect patchy if any frost.  By tomorrow, partly cloudy conditions will prevail, as high and mid level clouds move into the area.  These high and mid level clouds should not limit high temperatures very much, mainly due to 500 millibar height rises over the area.  This indicates that a ridge is beginning to build into the region, allowing much warmer temperatures than in the past few days.  Therefore, I predict that tomorrow's high temperatures will range in the mid-upper 60's in most areas.  For Monday night and Tuesday, I expect the upper level low over the east coast, to begin shifting eastward, mainly because of Hurricane Ophelia.  Soon, by Wednesday, because the upper level low will be off the east coast, I expect little if any cloud cover, due to the fact that the rather large upper level ridge will move into our area.  This should cause a significant warming trend to temperatures into the mid seventies and possibly upper 70's.  By the beginning of next week, the pattern will begin to change again with a trough entering the Central Plains.  This trough could begin to initiate storm systems, but I won't say this because models are not in very good agreement about what will happen with this trough.

Forecast through Friday, October 7, 2011

Sunday Night: Low 41. Mostly clear, becoming partly cloudy later with high and mid level clouds. Winds light and from the North-Northeast. 
Monday: High 68.  Partly Cloudy. Winds light and variable. Surface high pressure system on top of our area.
Tuesday: High 71. Partly cloudy for the most of the day, thicker and higher clouds moving in from the upper level low over the east coast.  Winds from the west at 10 mph. Very comfortable, warm day to be outside.
Tuesday Night: Low 52.  Partly cloudy in the evening, with clouds clearing up as upper level low moves off the east coast. 
Wednesday: High 74. Mostly sunny, with a few clouds from time to time. Upper level ridge beginning to move over the area, allowing much warmer temperatures. 
Wednesday Night: Low 53. Mostly clear, with surface high pressure causing warm southerly winds.  Upper level ridge continues to move eastward, causing warmer temperatures to move in.

Thursday: High 75. Mostly sunny, a ridge over the area keeps our temperatures above normal and skies clear.  Light winds from from the south-southeast. 

Thursday Night: Low 52.  Mostly clear.  Light southerly winds.  Ridge is still over the area keeping warm temperatures in place.

Friday: High 77. Mostly sunny, again, with warm southerly winds in place under highly amplified ridge.