Forecast Update.

I can tell you this.  I have never, in my entire life, have seen such an incredible run of record-breaking warmth that we have just seen.  It was so incredible, it broke thousands of daily and all-time records across the United States.  Even here, after this run of warmth, we end up with a new all-time record high temperature for March, a new record for the number of consecutive record high days.  The old record was 7 days in a row of record high days in July of 1936, one of the hottest summers on record in the United States.  Not only that, but the average temperature over the last 10 days has been over 55 degrees (the average of the highs and lows).  Normal average temperatures for this time of year is 36 degrees.  This is nearly 20 degrees above normal, and will likely break many more records.  If temperatures continue to stay well above normal for the month of March, I expect that this will end up as the warmest March on record.  This March's average temperature is currently 53 degrees, which is incredible to say the least.  The old record is 48.6 set in 1910.  So for the forecast, I expect showers and even a few thunderstorms to continue impacting the area through the night and possibly into tomorrow morning.  Rainfall totals will generally range near a half inch, but greater rainfall totals will exist where thunderstorms train over certain areas.  Other than that, expect much cooler temperatures into the week, with temperatures into the lower 60's by Monday.  There will be another slight warm up, but not near as large as the one we've been in.  This could bring temperatures as high as the lower and mid 70's by Wednesday, but with the threat for rain and a few thunderstorms.  By Thursday, temperatures will cool but only into the mid 60's.  It is possible that this up and down pattern will continue, with well above normal warmth continuing well into April.  This will likely be the last blog post for a few days, until I will have a chance to access the Internet, since I will be in Florida until April 9th, so I will not be keeping you updated very much but I will try my best.  See ya everyone.

Records shattered everywhere.

After yesterday's high temperature of a "scorching" 83 degrees, we have made it six consecutive record high temperatures.  If today and Wednesday both break the record highs (which is highly likely), then it will be the longest streak of record high temperatures ever recorded at Fort Wayne.  The last time that we had this many consecutive record highs was in 1936!  Another thing, yesterday was our 7th consecutive day above 70 degrees.  This makes it the third longest streak of 70 degree weather ever recorded in March.  If the next several days make it above 70, we shall break the long standing record of 10 consecutive days of 70+ temperatures, which was set in 1910.  We owe the intensity and duration of this warmth to an incredibly strong upper level ridge of high pressure, which extends from the Gulf of Mexico to the Arctic Circle in Canada.  This has allowed warm, moist tropical air to flood the Central and Eastern portions of the country with record breaking warmth.  This tropical air has spread even well into Canada, with some places in Canada reaching the 70's, at a time of year when they are supposed to have an average high in the middle 30's!  Because of how far above normal we are during this "heat" wave, I expect that unless colder air filters into the area and drops the average temperature, we are well on our way to seeing the warmest March on record.  Besides these records that I have just listed, many other records were broken at Fort Wayne, with probably many more records to be broken over the next several days.  In fact, if cloud cover is not an issue, our high temperatures will be within striking distance of breaking March's all-time record high of 86.  Forecast highs for today and tomorrow are both near 85, and the temperatures happen to be warmer than this (which seems to be the trend), we may actually all-time record highs broken, especially at Fort Wayne.  Keep reading my blog for further updates.

Record-breaking Summer-like Warmth to Persist

After a "cooler" weekend, with highs only in the mid to upper 70's, and with scattered showers and thunderstorms.  In fact, compared to Thursday and Wednesday, these days were not near as far above average.  This is all about to change, as an incredible jet streak that has remained over the Pacific Ocean for the last week, is finally moving into the Western trough, which is the source of the stormy weather out west.  As the jet streak moves into the trough, it will cause an incredible deepening of the storm system, so deep in fact that the entire trough will break away from the jet stream in the form of a cut-off low.  Before this happens, the extreme deepening of the trough will cause the ridge over the east will amplify considerably, causing yet another surge of extremely warm air into the region.  In fact, this next surge of warm air will be even greater than the first surge back on last Wednesday, when temperatures first hit the lower 80's.  Tomorrow, I expect that after a relatively warm morning in the lower 60's, along with dense fog in areas, temperatures will warm considerably into the low and possibly even mid-80's, depending on the degree of cloud cover, which is all dependent on thunderstorm development in the afternoon tomorrow.  Either way, it is likely that temperatures will reach into the lower 80's, along with ample sunshine and warm southerly winds.  By Tuesday, temperatures have an even greater chance of hitting of the middle 80's, though mid level clouds could keep temperatures in check in the lower 80's.  GFSx model guidance suggests that the incredibly warm temperatures in the 80's will continue into Wednesday, with mid to upper 70's likely on Thursday as the chance of thunderstorms moves in.  By Friday, the closed-low will likely affect the region with widespread showers and thunderstorms, along with temperatures dropping into the upper 60's.  Here's where discrepancies come between model data.  The GFS is suggesting that the storm system will stall much longer in the Central Plains, which will keep warm air flowing into the region through Friday, keeping high temperatures in the middle 70's.  Amazingly, this is coming from a model that is very progressive, which means that normally it would have this system moving out a lot faster than it actually would.  If a progressive computer model is showing a much slower solution than all of the other computer models, more than likely it is the model that is likely to be the most accurate, especially in these types of situations.  Either way, I will keep a close eye on this, because it could mean a greater chance for severe weather come Friday or possibly Saturday.  Keep on checking this blog for further updates.