Synopis through Saturday.

Currently, mostly cloudy to overcast conditions prevail across Northwest Ohio, with embedded showers in this mass of swirling clouds.  The upper level low is currently over Northwest Indiana, which has been weakening very steadily over the last day.  This weakening will allow the upper level jet stream over Canada to pick up the remnants of the upper level low, while at the same time causing several strong shortwaves to build a rather large longwave trough.  With the showers today, the National Weather Service has predicted the possibility of funnel clouds in any shower that hits your area.  They said that these are not dangerous and are not the same kind of funnel clouds as the ones that form in strong thunderstorms.  Do not be alarmed.  If you see one, report it to the emergency manager and you can also send me pictures and I can relay them to the National Weather Service.  Today, conditions are expected to remain overcast through most of the day.  Due to the weakening of the upper level low, there may be some clearing of the cloud cover over the area today, as dry air tries to enter into the system.  Expect highs today in the lower 60's, while some areas that receive less cloud cover may see highs in the mid 60's.  Any daytime heating will cause convective instability, and combined with cold air aloft, this may cause the development of scattered thunderstorms that may produce heavy rain and some gusty winds, with the possibility of small hail also.  Tonight, expect scattered light showers to continue, with continued mostly cloudy to overcast conditions likely.  Expect lows in the upper 40's and maybe lower 50's, especially in areas with thicker cloud cover tonight.  From Thursday through Sunday, as the jet stream begins to pick up the remnants of the upper level low, a major trough will begin to form over the Eastern United States.  At the surface, a major storm system will form, as a 992 mb low forms in Southern Canada.  This major storm system will cause a tight pressure gradient, allowing for strong winds to traverse the area on Friday and Friday Night.  Expect sustained winds of 20-25 mph, gusting to 30 mph.  This along with cloudy, showery, cool conditions on Friday, will cause uncomfortable conditions for people who are outside.  This major trough, will continue to deepen, becoming another upper level low, but this time just off the East Coast.  This means that we won't get the same dreary conditions that we have been having this week.  By Saturday, the surface cold air mass and associated high pressure system, will allow for strong radiational cooling, and presenting the possibility of frost to the area.  According to the National Weather Service, there is a strong possibility of frost Saturday, because of the forecast of light winds, clear skies, and a cold Canadian air mass.  By Sunday, a lower level ridge is expected to move into the area, bringing a very dry, but warmer air mass into the region.  As next week progresses, an upper level ridge will also move into the area, influencing the weather over a large part of the United States.  With this ridge, I expect temperatures to be warm, while skies will be clear and free of rain.  As I said in yesterday's forecast, temperatures could even warm into the upper 70's and lower 80's by next Wednesday or Thursday.

Official Forecast Through Saturday Night

Wednesday: High 62. Overcast.  Numerous showers likely.  Some showers may have funnel clouds, brief heavy downpours, and thunder.  Chance of rain 90%.  Rainfall amounts ranging from 0.2 inches to 0.75 inches in areas that receive heavy rain bands.
Wednesday Night: Low 49.  Scattered to numerous showers over the area.  Overcast at first, becoming mostly cloudy.  Chance of rain 70% decreasing to 30%. Fog possible.
Thursday: High 71.  Mostly cloudy. Instability and shear will be enough to generate widespread showers and thunderstorms, with some severe by afternoon, especially in Northwest Ohio. Patchy fog possible in the morning. Chance of rain 90%.
Thursday Night: Low 51.  Overcast.  Widespread showers likely, especially after midnight.  Chance of rain 30% at first, becoming 70% after 3 a.m.
Friday: High 56. Overcast.  Windy.  Winds from northwest at 20-30 mph.  Scattered showers throughout the area.  Showers likely.
Friday Night: Low 37.  Mostly cloudy in the early evening, becoming clear after 9 p.m. Windy at first, becoming calm later in the evening.  Frost possible, especially in the early morning hours.
Saturday: High 56.  Mostly sunny.  Much drier than in recent days.  Very nice day, but chilly at the same time.
Saturday Night: Low 35.  Mostly clear.  Light winds and clear winds, make for a great night for the formation of frost.  Some areas, especially north of here, could hit below freezing, especially in more isolated areas.

Forecast through Friday

About two hours ago, a large and intense band of heavy rain moved through Antwerp, and was heading north-northeast.  With this system, expect heavy rain with amounts in excess of a half inch, with some gusty winds including.  If you happen to get hit by some of the heavier bands of rain, expect rainfall amounts closer to one inch.  Here in the Antwerp, the band of rain dumped just over four-tenths of an inch, in a little less than an hour.  Currently, the clouds over Antwerp are just beginning to break, forming a raggedy appearance in the sky, with some sunshine peaking through.  As the surface low over Northwest Indiana moves slowly to the east, expect clouds to increase and become overcast once again along with showers and possibly a thunderstorm increasing in coverage over the area, especially during the overnight hours.  Tonight, skies will remain overcast as the rain bands continue to affect the area.  Lows will fall to around 51 tonight, as overcast skies will keep temperatures steady.  Any rainfall tonight will not be that heavy with rainfall amounts amounting to 0.25-0.4 maximum.  By tomorrow, the surface low will be located just north of South Bend right along the state line, and it will weaken and dissipate by Wednesday afternoon, ahead of the next storm system. Tomorrow's highs will be around 62, with areas farther east, such as in Defiance, will see temperatures near 65 tomorrow.  Most areas will see mostly cloudy to overcast skies, along with the renewed threat for showers.  Showers will likely still be numerous tomorrow, with some of the showers becoming especially in areas that see some sunshine, which will add to the instability in the atmosphere.  Expect rainfall amounts to be on the lighter side with about 0.25 inches falling during the day in Antwerp.  By Wednesday night, expect light scattered showers to continue even after the surface low pressure system dissipates.  Lows will fall into the upper 40's, around 48.  Skies Wednesday night, will likely begin to clear up.  Instead of overcast skies all night, expect skies to become mostly cloudy, especially by early morning.  On Thursday, highs will probably be higher than in recent days, mainly due to less cloud cover, and the fact that the next cold front will approach from the north on Thursday.  Highs will rise into the upper 60's and lower 70's, even as the chance of scattered light showers prevails along with partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies.  Overnight, skies will begin to cloud up again, as the next storm system approaches from the north.  Because of increasing clouds, expect lows in the upper 40's or lower 50's. During the overnight hours, the storm system approaching from the north will curve toward the southeast and east, while intensifying rapidly at the same time.  According to the GFS computer model, this low will intensify to minimum low pressure of 992 millibars by early Friday morning.  The intensification of this low pressure system and its movement will determine how much rain we get Friday, and how windy it will get.  According to computer models, this strong storm system will be located over the far eastern part of the U.P. of Michigan (near Sault St. Marie).  So I expect that showers will increase in coverage across the area early Friday morning and into the afternoon under cloudy skies.  I also expect winds to significantly increase early Friday morning, with sustained winds increasing to about 20-25 mph, with gusts up to 30 mph.  Not only will Friday be miserable with gusty winds, cloudy, wet conditions, but temperatures will also be on the cool side with highs in the 56-59 degree range.  This will make for a miserable day Friday.

For the long range, on Friday night, expect scattered showers to continue, along with gusty winds early on, but decreasing in intensity later on in the night, along with clearing skies.  Saturday, the intense low pressure system over southern Canada, will begin to weaken and move eastward, decreasing our threat for rain on Saturday.  Due to a major cold air mass moving into the region, temperatures on Saturday will be very similar to Friday's, with temperatures in the mid to upper 50's.  But instead of cloudy, wet conditions, expect partly sunny skies and light winds for Saturday.  By Sunday and Monday, and a warming trend will begin, with highs sliding back into the upper 60's and lower 70's.  Throughout next week, I am expecting a major ridge to move into the area, which could support highs in the lower to middle 80's by next Wednesday or Thursday.  This large ridge of high pressure, will become stagnant over the area for several days, before a major longwave trough digs into the central plains, causing the first in a series of storm systems that could affect us by the end of next week.

Ridge of high pressure aloft will cause above normal temperatures next week

Comfortable Temperatures Once Again. Major Heat Wave Threatens Records.

Once again today, temperatures have risen from the upper 50's this morning, to the lower to middle 80's as of 3:30 p.m.  Currently, the temperature at Antwerp is 84 degrees, after a morning low of 58 degrees.  The dew point temperature is at a very comfortable level, in the low to mid 50's, producing a heat index of 82.  Lows tonight will be slightly warmer than last night mainly due to high and mid level clouds moving into the region from MCS activity over Wisconsin and Minnesota.  Highs on Friday will be warmer than today, around 88 degrees tomorrow with mostly sunny skies.

     The upper level ridge that is causing the optimal summer conditions will soon lead to oppressive heat over three-quarters of the United States over at least the next week and a half.  This ridge is beginning to intensify, causing the heat wave to start over the plains tomorrow.  Locations that are near the core of the ridge aloft will have the highest temperatures of 105 to 110, with possibly higher temperatures occurring.  According to the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center, these temperatures will threaten records that were set during the infamous summer of 1980.  As the ridge shifts eastward, temperatures in this area will rebound into the lower to middle 90's for the foreseeable future.  According to the NWS's latest forecast discussion, temperatures could even rise into the lower 100's and could possibly hit 105 by Tuesday and Wednesday of next week in many locations in Northern Indiana and Northwest Ohio, with the highest probabilities over western Indiana.  The heat wave should last most or all of next week, and will more than likely bring about the issuance of a heat advisory or heat warning for several days next week.  As the heat wave shifts eastward, our area should have an increased southerly flow from the Gulf of Mexico, and by Sunday, our dew points will be in the low to middle 70's.  By Monday and Tuesday, our dew points could hit extreme levels as high as 79 degrees in the area.  This combined with temperatures in the middle 90's, will cause heat indices from 105 to 115 degrees, allowing the issuance of an excessive heat warning.  According to the NWS, the heat wave will likely for quite a few days before a shortwave flattens the ridge by the end of next week or the beginning of the week after that.