Another Complex and Uncertain Pattern on the Horizon

Well, for any snow lovers out there, the pattern may not look that great for you guys.  All afternoon, and through most of the evening, I've been monitoring the general forecasted pattern by the models.  For starters, let's talk about the short term.  Currently, widespread thick clouds are spreading into the region from the west, indicative of a storm system approaching.  This storm system is very weak, and I hesitate to call it a storm system, as the precipitation associated with it is being generated by the right entrance region of a jet streak and frontogenetical lifting (A jet streak is an area of higher wind speeds embedded within the jet stream, while the right entrance region of this area of higher wind speeds causes moderate divergence and rising air.  Frontogenetical lifting is lifting that is caused by frontogenesis, a term that means the strengthening of a temperature gradient or strengthening of a low-level front.)  This combined with a frozen temperature profile (all temperatures in the atmosphere above an area are below freezing.) has caused a fairly large area of light to moderate snow in Nebraska and Iowa.  This band of snow will move eastward through the overnight hours, reaching the area by early tomorrow morning; around the 2-4 a.m. time frame.  Because this system is moisture starved, most accumulations will be around an inch or so, with locally higher amounts around 2 inches especially east and south of Fort Wayne.  Most, if not all snow showers will have left the area by mid-afternoon according to the NAM, leaving behind a few flurries especially closer to Lake Michigan.  As the low-level cold front moves through the area, expect morning highs in the upper 20's or possibly lower 30's, dropping into the low to mid 20's by afternoon.  I would expect some clearing by afternoon, but I'm not so sure on this.  On the other hand, I do expect more cloud cover north of Fort Wayne, due to the lake effect, but also more cloud cover in areas east of Fort Wayne, mainly because the storm system will still have lingering snow showers.  Friday night, temperatures will continue dropping under partly cloudy skies, and combined with fresh, powdery snow on the ground, temperatures will probably drop lower than what the NWS and most other forecasters are saying, into the lower teens and mid teens in areas that do not see much snow.  By Saturday, a very cold arctic air mass will move into the region, causing highs to only reach the mid 20's, if not lower 20's, even with abundant sunshine.  This will be the coldest air of the season, as it is well below normal for this time of year.  This cold is not long lasting, as it will move out just as quickly as it got here.  By Sunday, temperatures will rebound into the lower if not mid or upper 30's.  Monday through Wednesday, temperatures will remain in the mid to upper 30's, with higher temperatures possible, under sunny skies.  Wednesday night, the next storm system approaches.  Since temperatures Wednesday night will fall into the mid or upper 20's, expect any precipitation that falls during the night to be snow.  So if temperatures are colder than what was originally expected, I would expect a significant amount of icy or snowy precipitation.  On Thursday, the warm front will pass through the area, causing temperatures to rise significantly, along with heavy rainfall and gusty winds, ahead of a very strong low pressure system in the plains.  What I make of model data, is that the storm will pass west of the area through the Central Plains.  At this time, if the cold air holds on longer in the Plains, the storm will be suppressed to the south, allowing for the possibility of a major snow event in at least northern parts of our area.  I don't think the solution of a southern track looks all that plausible, but it certainly is possibility.  More than likely, it will start out as snow or sleet, become heavy rain on Thursday, and after the cold front moves through, rapidly falling temperatures and the possibility of lingering snow.  After the storm moves through, very cold air will once again filter into the region.  According to the latest runs of some major models, this next shot of cold air could be longer lasting, preparing the way for a major snowstorm possibly in the Christmas week time frame.  This is all for now.  If you have any questions e-mail at storm_reportsjoshua@yahoo.com.

Quieter Weather On the Way. Revised Winter Forecast Summary

After yesterday's snowfall, snow accumulations ranged from about one inch in Fort Wayne, to about one and one half inch in Antwerp, to more than two inches over some parts of Northeast Indiana and Northwest Ohio.  This indicates that my forecasted snowfall amounts were higher than what actually happened.  I anticipated this, mainly because of a dry slot moving through around 10 p.m. last night.  This shut off the steady snow earlier than what short range models were anticipating.  Overall, I think that my forecast for this storm was more accurate than last week's first snowstorm of the season.  As I explained yesterday, cloud cover lingered all day today, mainly because the upper level storm system is not moving very quickly to the east.  Because of this, another piece of energy in the upper level westerlies will quickly phase with this system right along the east coast by Wednesday Night.  This will cause a rapid deepening of the low pressure system just off the east coast.  This storm seems very similar to what happened back in October with the Halloween Blizzard.  During normal Nor'easters, cold air precedes the storm system in a shallow wedge of cold air ahead of the warm front, making the East Coast a favorable location for heavy snow and sleet.  In this system, because the teleconnections don't seem to be cooperating with the entire weather pattern, warm air will precede the storm.  This will likely make most of the precipitation rain before a rapid changeover to heavy snow in quite a few locations from Virginia through Southeast New York through Maine.  Maine will likely see the heaviest snow, because cold air will come before the storm hits, causing most if not all of the precipitation to be snow.  At the same time this storm system is hitting the east, a very sharp and pronounced arctic cold front will move into our area from the northwest Thursday afternoon.  Because of preceding chilly air, expect all precipitation to be snow Thursday Night into Friday.  Right now it is unclear how much snow will get from this system, but because of limited moisture moving into the system (due in part to the East Coast storm), I expect only a narrow band of light to moderate snow to move through before the passage of the cold front.  This could cause some snowfall accumulations of around an inch or two especially in Southern Michigan.  In most of our area, expect snowfall of around inch or less.  After the cold front moves, temperatures will fall rapidly from the lower 30's on Friday, to the mid teens Friday Night.  Personally, I think that temperatures will be colder than this, due to the nature of this air mass, a true arctic air mass.  Combined with fresh powdery snowfall and clear skies, temperatures COULD fall into the lower teens.  The colder it gets Friday night, the colder the highs will be on Saturday.  If temperatures fall to levels that I have forecast, highs on Saturday will barely make it above 25 on Saturday.  Some areas might not make it above 23 on Saturday.  This will make for the coldest air of the season.  Sad thing is, the cold air will not last long, as yet another disturbance in the upper levels makes its way into the Midwest, shooting much warmer air into the region by Sunday and Monday.  Highs Sunday and Monday will probably in the mid 30's under partly sunny skies.  By midweek next week, another major storm system will be possible.  At this time it looks like it will be a mostly snow event, with the possibility of rain and sleet mixing in at times.  According to the GFS, precipitation will start off as snow, then change to rain or freezing rain for a short time, then change back to snow, and probably become heavy at times late next week.  If this solution becomes more probable as the event comes nearer, then I would not be surprised with snowfall amounts of around a foot, especially if the teleconnections line up (they could, you never know).  Right now, it does look probable that we would get snow, as the weather pattern looks probable for snow.  Even if only a few inches or nothing comes, the GFS is forecasting extremely cold air to enter the United States.  This time, instead of the polar vortex shifting southward (such as in the arctic outbreak this weekend), the teleconnections will more than likely line up for a major cold air mass to enter into the United States via the Upper Plains and Midwest.  This situation will have to be monitored for the possibility of a major snow storm and cold outbreak. 
   As for the information on this year's snow season.  Going with the pattern that has been prevalent the past month or two, I expect a very wet winter this year, even more so than what I was originally predicting.  I am also expecting temperatures to be not as cold as originally predicted, but there will be much more variation in temperature this year than last year, making for a very stormy winter.  Therefore, I have raised overall snowfall amounts for this winter.  I do not want to release snowfall amount projections, mainly because long-range snowfall amounts are almost never right.  I can tell you right now, I even think this winter will be snowier than last winter.  We are already much above normal for snowfall, with 5.2 inches falling Fort Wayne, nearly 5 inches falling in Antwerp, and other areas such as Defiance just about 2.5 inches for the winter season.  In fact, we have already had more snow than South Bend has, and they also have yet to see snow accumulating this winter.  Typically, when a season starts out above normal for snowfall at Fort Wayne, then snowfall amounts throughout the entire winter season will be above normal.  If they start out below normal there is no correlation between any extreme during the winter season.  My forecast is calling much above normal snowfall for this area throughout the winter, with the heaviest snowfall and cold air coming in late January through February.  December will probably turn out near normal for temperatures and above normal for snowfall and precipitation.  Stay tuned for further updates.

Forecast Update.

Well, new model data has come in.  The HRRR is forecasting around 2-3 inches of snow for most of the area especially east and north of Fort Wayne, mainly east of the Ohio border.  Some areas will likely get into the range of 3-5 inches according to this model, mainly north of a line from Antwerp to Defiance.  So here is what is likely to happen.  Rain will continue for the next hour or so before transitioning to snow.  It looks like their will be a very short transition between the rain and snow, as cold air will rush into the area.  Moderate to heavy snow could fall for a couple of hours mainly from 6 to 9 p.m., reducing visibilities and creating slick, icy, and snow covered roads over a good chunk of the area.  After 9 p.m., the snow will likely gradually taper off from light snow, and finally get over with by around 11 or 12 p.m.  By tomorrow, it looks there may be more clouds than were originally forecast, in my opinion.  This is because the system has been slow to move out, I would expect thinner clouds especially by afternoon, but I think the clouds will linger a little longer.  So don't be surprised that clouds hang on longer tomorrow.  Overall, clouds will be clearing by afternoon, with temperatures warming into the mid 30's, and with some snowpack, I expect temperatures tomorrow night to drop into the low to mid 20's. 

Forecast Update

The forecast hasn't changed much for the area, except for the fact that snow totals may not be as high as I was forecasting this morning.  The latest GFS and NAM have forecasted only snowfall amounts around an inch or less, as the cold air fails to interact with the system in time for any significant accumulations.  Right now, I think that the highest snowfall accumulations will be along and north of U.S. Highway 24, up to the Michigan border.  These accumulations will be along the lines of 1-3 inches, with isolated amounts of 4 inches.  Areas south of U.S. Highway 24 will likely less than one inch with some areas likely to receive little or no snow accumulation.  What I expect to happen is that rain will fall through about 2 p.m., then transitioning over to snow for the rest of the afternoon, with the snow likely to fall moderately at times, mixing with rain at some points.  By late afternoon and early evening, snow will still be falling through about 10 p.m., before the precipitation ends.  Temperatures on Monday, will be steady in the upper 30's, before falling rapidly in the mid to late afternoon down to the lower 30's and upper 20's.  Temperatures Monday Night will fall into the upper 20's and remain steady throughout the night.  By Tuesday, cloudy and cold conditions will prevail with highs only in the mid to upper 30's. 
   Now, I want to talk about the heavy rain potential.  According to the latest GFS and NAM runs, the area of heaviest rain has shifted this morning southward into Central Ohio.  My current thinking is that everybody along and southeast of 24 and U.S. 30, will likely have rainfall amounts of 1-2.5 inches on Monday, which means the Maumee River will likely see more flooding.  Around Antwerp, expect rainfall of 1-1.5 inches of rain Sunday Night through Monday morning.  Areas in Central Ohio will likely see rainfall of 2-4 inches, possibly up to 6 inches.  This will likely create severe flooding problems in many areas.  Around here, flooding will get worse, and probably cause the river to rise again.  Stay tuned for further updates.

Weather Models Page Finished

After hours of work last night and this afternoon, I have finally compiled all (or most of) of the computer models available to the public.  I am also adding a forecast sounding section for different models.  I have also been working on an Ensembles section.  Ensembles are very useful when forecasting especially in the medium to long-range.

Winter Forecast Update by Tonight.

By tonight, I am going to try and a have a winter outlook update, to reflect upon new data that may change the winter forecast slightly.  If I don't have one tonight, I will probably release it sometime this week or next weekend.

Flooding potential. Snow may be coming.

After looking at several runs of the NAM and GFS, I have concluded that the snow threat with this next system may not be as much as we originally thought it was.  The GFS has really backed down on this system (It never really showed much snow anyway.), down from the several inches of snow that the 12z was predicting yesterday to less than an inch today.  The NAM is still supporting a snowfall of several inches in most of Northwest Ohio, with heaviest amounts along and north of U.S. Highway 24.  If this model were to verify, areas along and north of 24 would probably get into the range of 3-5 inches mainly in northern-most Ohio, where the cold air will probably arrive by mid-afternoon.  Down south, right along U.S. 24 westward into Fort Wayne, expect 2-4 inches, similar snow amounts to what fell last week.  Right now, I myself think these snowfall amounts are a bit high, but I think it is plausible, as this next polar outbreak is going to be much colder.  As for rain and flooding, don't expect much rain today, as rainfall amounts will be around a half an inch in most areas, with some areas receiving around a quarter of an inch, especially near Toledo.  By this afternoon, the rain activity will have tapered to showers as a strong cold front moves through, dropping temperatures into the lower 40's.  Tonight, another shortwave in the upper atmosphere will instigate more rainfall and possibly heavy rainfall.  By Monday morning, heavy rain is possible across the area as the storm system moves northward from the south.  Southern and eastern portions of Northwest Ohio will receive the heaviest amounts with the possibility of up to one and a half inches of rainfall.  According to the latest NAM run, rainfall of up to two and a half inches is possible across the Maumee River Basin, which will make the moderate flooding much worse, possibly pushing the Maumee River into major flood stage, something we have not seen in a while.  By mid to late afternoon, rain will begin changing to snow over extreme northern parts of Indiana and Ohio.  By mid to late evening, I expect most every place in Northern Ohio will have changed to snow, except for areas south of Van Wert and east of Findlay.  Most areas will receive around an inch of snowfall, while areas along and north of U.S. Highway 24 will have 1-4 inches, while areas in extreme Northern Ohio and southern Michigan to receive 3-5 inches and possibly higher amounts.  By Tuesday, cloudy conditions will remain for the morning, with some snow flurries possible.  Temperatures will only reach the mid to upper 30's as a cold polar air mass makes its way into the area.  By Wednesday and Thursday, temperatures will be even colder, with highs only around 33-35.  By Friday, a strong arctic cold front is expected to move through the area, bringing periods of light snow and possibly some accumulation, as temperatures on Friday will likely hover around 31-33.  By Saturday and through next week, a bitter arctic air mass will settle into the region according to the GFS and ECMWF, causing temperatures to barely make it into the twenties, and possibly some days may not make it above 15 degrees (F) according to the 18z GFS from yesterday.  Bitter arctic winds will accompany this air mass, causing temperatures to fall lower than they've been all season.  After that, I am not sure whether the air mass will stick around or get kicked out by another storm system.  Stay tuned for further updates.