Warm, dry weather pattern

For all the people who love summer-like weather, there is yet another batch of much above normal temperatures coming, with highs by the end of this week reaching into the 80's.  This will come on the heels of a long dry spell, which will likely last through the next week or so.  So far this month, we have only received 0.8 inches of rain, and with little or no rain in the next week and a half, this could end up as the second month in a row with below normal rainfall.  With the below normal rainfall and record warmth over the past several months, drought will likely ensue, with parts of the area already in the first category of drought status.  This could have huge implications for this summer's weather, with widespread dry ground over the Midwest leading to hotter daytime temperatures (dry ground heats up faster and longer than wet ground does).  As late spring and summer progresses, the large amount of heat radiated from the ground level will cause a deep layer of warm air to form, making it nearly impossible for cold fronts from Canada to penetrate into the Midwest.  Not only will this occur, but building warm air will cause higher pressure aloft, causing greater subsidence, clear skies, more sunshine, no rain, and higher temperatures which will all continue to cause warmer temperatures throughout the summer.  Obviously, this is an idealized process, with many complications which will act to counteract the warmer temperatures, such as isolated summer thunderstorms.  What I'm trying to say is that the warm and dry weather pattern of this spring will likely continue through the summer.  According to Accuweather, they are expecting a much different pattern.  They believe that this summer will hold above normal storms and rainfall for the area but normal temperatures.  Unless there is some kind of major pattern reversal, I do not see this happening in the near future, as blocking is characteristic of an El Nino pattern, which we are entering into.  Also I have found correlations with other years that had warm winters, warm and dry springs, and they have also had very warm and dry summers (the summer of 1955, one of Fort Wayne's hottest summers).  Otherwise, over the next week, due to dry soils and relatively little moist air entering the region, I do not see much rain nor cooler weather.  In fact, each day will see large diurnal temperature swings, which could mean lows in the lower 50's during the morning but temperatures in the mid to upper 80's and lower 90's by afternoon.  It is entirely possible that temperatures reach into the 90's by the beginning of next week.  Though, it is very hard to tell, as the long-range is very difficult to forecast.  If computer model forecasts are correct, then 850 millibar temperatures could approach the lower 20's degrees Celsius, which translates to surface temperatures in the lower 90's.  This pattern won't last forever, but it will likely last quite a while.  My forecast is that this type of pattern will continue throughout the summer months, bringing our area quickly into drought.  Before we hit the 80's though, expect temperatures in the upper 70's through Thursday, before they rise into the 80's.  Enjoy the beautiful weather this week!