Slighty Cooler Tomorrow

After such a beautiful day today, with temperatures near 85 (an impressive diurnal temperature range, 49 this morning to 85 in the afternoon) and incredibly low humidity, a weak cold front from Canada will invade the area, bringing the possibility of weak scattered showers, but more importantly temperatures back into the 70's for a few days.  This cold front diving southward in response to a high amplitude trough sitting in southeastern Canada.  This will send a bit of a reality check to the region, with temperatures only reaching the mid 70's tomorrow.  I am not expecting really any rain except for the possibility of a few sprinkles, as moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico is incredibly meager and any significant upper level forcing is too far north of here to produce anything of consequence.  This will likely mean a partly cloudy rather warm night with temperatures dropping into the mid 50's.  By tomorrow, cooler temperatures with make their way into the area with highs dropping near 73 or 74.  Much cooler temperatures tomorrow night could mean lows in the mid 40's, quite a bit cooler than in recent nights.  By Thursday, temperatures will begin making their recovery with highs back into the upper 70's underneath a very dry air mass.  For the rest of the weekend and the beginning of next week, strong upper level ridging will cause much warmer temperatures, with highs as warm as the upper 80's and lower 90's.  A lot of the models are tend to under do warm events like these, mainly because they cannot account for soil moisture very well.  When soils are incredibly dry and the air mass is also dry, temperatures tend to rise much faster and to higher temperatures as well.  Temperatures also tend to drop considerably at night, making for large diurnal temperatures ranges.  This means very hot temperatures for the weekend under mostly sunny skies as ridging continues to build.  After this, the forecast gets a little out of hand.  The GFS has a small amplitude wave moving through the Midwest on Monday and Tuesday, with ridging building back into the region after that.  To me, this seems like the most logical conclusion, as a rather strong trough will build onto the West Coast, causing an amplification of the Central and Eastern ridge.   After a couple of days of being in the upper 70's on Monday and Tuesday, expect temperatures to warm back into the mid to upper 80's, with continuing warmth possible.