When it seems it can't get any better (80's in March, lots of sunshine), it just keeps getting better. For example, today, it is expecting to be partly cloudy ahead of a cold front with temperatures rising into the mid 70's. It isn't ideal, because of the chance for thunderstorms, but it is pretty nice, even compared to last May (last May was the wettest May on record.). Looking over the week ahead, temperatures will be soaring into the upper 70's, especially by Wednesday, and then into the 80's by Friday. Guidance continues to suggest that the surge of warmth will continue through the following week also. It is possible that we will be hitting the 90's by the following week, which will be well above normal and possibly record-breaking. Given dry conditions and plenty of sunshine, long-range forecasts will definitely have a cooler bias to them, which means that if they say upper 70's and lower 80's for the end of the week, expect mid 80's. As for today's forecast, I am not that worried about it, because there is not a whole lot of upper-level forcing nor instability. According to my analysis of a skew-T log P chart, instability could be high enough to produce scattered thunderstorms but nothing horrible or severe. One caveat to this is the fact that we are located in the right entrance region of a jet streak, which would produce strong upward motion, aiding thunderstorm development. But, due to the limited availability of moisture (dew points only in the low 50's), thunderstorms will not be widespread. Expect tomorrow to be a cooler day, with cloudier skies ahead of a weak shortwave trough axis, with highs in the upper 60's and lower 70's. By Monday, temperatures once again will be rising into the mid 70's under sunny skies. I am also expecting the same for Tuesday through Thursday, with Friday showing a marked jump in temperatures into the lower 80's, due to upper level ridging aloft. This will definitely be a very nice week of weather, just like the rest of spring 2012.
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