Warmth Continues...

As of  4 p.m. this afternoon, the official high temperature at Fort Wayne International Airport was 88 degrees (note: this will likely change as temperatures continued rising after 4 p.m.).  It is very likely that across the area, mainly west of Defiance, that many areas reached or exceeded 90.  In fact, most of the warmer temperatures were west of here, with some areas, such as Chicago, reaching into the lower 90's.  The reason for this well above normal warmth, is because of the incredibly dry ground.  In fact, it has been almost two weeks since some areas in the region even saw rain.  Dry ground combined with completely clear skies lead to large diurnal temperature swings, with low temperatures this morning near 50, and high temperatures in the upper 80's and lower 90's.  Also, a strong upper level ridge is currently located over us, which is basically a large bubble of relatively warm air in the upper atmosphere.  This "warm bubble" is causing downward motion over the area, which is causing the warm temperatures aloft to be carried to the surface, plus the added subsidence is causing adiabatic warming which also warms the surface.  With warmer lows tonight near 60, expect even warmer temperatures for tomorrow afternoon, with highs possibly reaching well into the 90's (91-93) in some localized areas.  With increasing moisture into the area, high temperatures may not reach that high tomorrow.  By Monday, a dying upper level system will reach the area, causing scattered showers and thunderstorms.  Because of the weak forcing associated with the system, and meager moisture in the lower atmosphere, do not expect much shower and thunderstorm activity in the area.  Because the cold front will be moving through, temperatures will be quite a bit cooler on Monday then on Sunday, with highs only reaching the lower 80's.  On Tuesday, the core of the upper level low will move over the area, bringing the chance for an isolated shower, but this is highly unlikely.  The cold core of the upper level low will cause much cooler temperatures on Tuesday, with a high near 73.  By Wednesday, the next upper level ridge will build into the region with yet another warming trend for Memorial Day weekend.  Wednesday's highs will peak in the upper 70's under partly cloudy skies.  By Thursday, temperatures will approach the mid 80's yet again, under sunny skies.  On Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, I am expecting temperatures to rise into the upper 80's and lower 90's, with temperatures possibly peaking in the mid 90's on Sunday and Monday.  This will have to be monitored in the future because this could be a sign the season's first heat wave could hit the area.