Not Just One but Two

After looking at most computer models, most of them still don't seem to be in agreement with this next storm system, which will, at this time, likely produce rain.  I really do think the GFS and the ECMWF are still too far north with this system, as they have been trending southward the last several runs.  Here's my current thinking on the next few days before the storm system hits.  Today, highs will be limited to middle thirties, or even colder in areas that have more snow cover, such as southern Michigan.  Lows tonight will fall into the lower and middle 20's, making for another frosty Monday morning.  Highs will warm even more Monday, as a large ridge builds in the East.  Temperatures will reach the upper 30's, if not lower 40's.  By Monday night, temperatures will not be allowed to cool as much even with the snow cover in some areas, as warm air advection takes place.  By Tuesday, thick clouds will move into the region, along with a weak upper level shortwave.  The air will still be too dry to allow this system to produce any considerable precipitation around here, but to the north and west (Chicago and northwest), precipitation will be likely.  Clouds will increase in coverage Tuesday night, as the next storm system approaches from the southwest.  Some computer models such as the GFS, have the system moving through faster, therefore producing less rain, but coming earlier.  Others, such as the ECMWF have the system moving more slowly and farther too the north.  At this time, I don't think that either of these solutions are correct.  I'm forecasting that the storm system will approach the area by Wednesday morning, bringing rain into the region by mid to late morning.  With how much moisture that will be associated with this system (even though the GFS and ECMWF aren't showing much), I expect rainfall totals to be heavy, possibly in excess of one or two inches.  This will really get flooding problems going again, with moderate flooding coming back to the Maumee river.  The system could end with snowfall, possibly 1-2 inches of it.  This would happen if the storm system would happen to take a more southerly route, bringing the cold air farther southward into the United States than what the GFS and ECMWF are forecasting.  I think that this system will take a more southerly route, mainly because I don't think the GFS has a good handle on the southwest cut-off low, and the fact that the ECMWF is almost always warm biased, causing it to bring storm systems to far to the north.  With the more southerly solution, expect heavy rainfall and flooding, possibly ending as moderate to heavy snow on Thursday night.  By Friday and Saturday, cold air causes temperatures to drop into the upper 20's, but not much colder mainly because the fast, progressive flow aloft will not allow the cold air to leave Canada.  By the end of the weekend into early next week, I really think that a new storm system will develop in the lower Mississippi Valley, tracking northeastward into the Ohio Valley.  This next system could be a major snowstorm for us, or even a rain event changing to heavy snow for 6-12 hours.  Either way, this next system could be the storm system that brings our first heavy snowfall of the season.  Continue checking my blog for further updates.