Well, for any snow lovers out there, the pattern may not look that great for you guys. All afternoon, and through most of the evening, I've been monitoring the general forecasted pattern by the models. For starters, let's talk about the short term. Currently, widespread thick clouds are spreading into the region from the west, indicative of a storm system approaching. This storm system is very weak, and I hesitate to call it a storm system, as the precipitation associated with it is being generated by the right entrance region of a jet streak and frontogenetical lifting (A jet streak is an area of higher wind speeds embedded within the jet stream, while the right entrance region of this area of higher wind speeds causes moderate divergence and rising air. Frontogenetical lifting is lifting that is caused by frontogenesis, a term that means the strengthening of a temperature gradient or strengthening of a low-level front.) This combined with a frozen temperature profile (all temperatures in the atmosphere above an area are below freezing.) has caused a fairly large area of light to moderate snow in Nebraska and Iowa. This band of snow will move eastward through the overnight hours, reaching the area by early tomorrow morning; around the 2-4 a.m. time frame. Because this system is moisture starved, most accumulations will be around an inch or so, with locally higher amounts around 2 inches especially east and south of Fort Wayne. Most, if not all snow showers will have left the area by mid-afternoon according to the NAM, leaving behind a few flurries especially closer to Lake Michigan. As the low-level cold front moves through the area, expect morning highs in the upper 20's or possibly lower 30's, dropping into the low to mid 20's by afternoon. I would expect some clearing by afternoon, but I'm not so sure on this. On the other hand, I do expect more cloud cover north of Fort Wayne, due to the lake effect, but also more cloud cover in areas east of Fort Wayne, mainly because the storm system will still have lingering snow showers. Friday night, temperatures will continue dropping under partly cloudy skies, and combined with fresh, powdery snow on the ground, temperatures will probably drop lower than what the NWS and most other forecasters are saying, into the lower teens and mid teens in areas that do not see much snow. By Saturday, a very cold arctic air mass will move into the region, causing highs to only reach the mid 20's, if not lower 20's, even with abundant sunshine. This will be the coldest air of the season, as it is well below normal for this time of year. This cold is not long lasting, as it will move out just as quickly as it got here. By Sunday, temperatures will rebound into the lower if not mid or upper 30's. Monday through Wednesday, temperatures will remain in the mid to upper 30's, with higher temperatures possible, under sunny skies. Wednesday night, the next storm system approaches. Since temperatures Wednesday night will fall into the mid or upper 20's, expect any precipitation that falls during the night to be snow. So if temperatures are colder than what was originally expected, I would expect a significant amount of icy or snowy precipitation. On Thursday, the warm front will pass through the area, causing temperatures to rise significantly, along with heavy rainfall and gusty winds, ahead of a very strong low pressure system in the plains. What I make of model data, is that the storm will pass west of the area through the Central Plains. At this time, if the cold air holds on longer in the Plains, the storm will be suppressed to the south, allowing for the possibility of a major snow event in at least northern parts of our area. I don't think the solution of a southern track looks all that plausible, but it certainly is possibility. More than likely, it will start out as snow or sleet, become heavy rain on Thursday, and after the cold front moves through, rapidly falling temperatures and the possibility of lingering snow. After the storm moves through, very cold air will once again filter into the region. According to the latest runs of some major models, this next shot of cold air could be longer lasting, preparing the way for a major snowstorm possibly in the Christmas week time frame. This is all for now. If you have any questions e-mail at storm_reportsjoshua@yahoo.com.
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