Forecast Update

More model data has come in, and now it is almost certain (we can never be one hundred percent sure) that rain will fall with this system, in fact even heavily at times.  The latest radar maps have shown heavy rain bands moving in our direction from Illinois and Missouri.  You probably could tell that the storm system was moving closer, as we haven't seen any sun today, unlike yesterday.  The rain bands will continue to move closer to our area, and by late evening to around midnight, the rain will finally arrive and last through most of the night into Wednesday morning.  Here comes the tricky part.  It is still uncertain when the rain will end for a while tomorrow, or if it is going to end.  For right now, I expect a moderate steady rain overnight tonight, amounting to a quarter of an inch with some areas especially west of Fort Wayne, seeing more than a half an inch.  I think that the rain will end around 9 a.m. tomorrow, most likely south of a line from Marion to Van Wert, with areas from Fort Wayne to Antwerp and Toledo seeing light rain throughout the day.  Areas north and west of Fort Wayne, near South Bend, will likely see the rain last throughout much of the day.  In areas where the rain becomes lighter or tapers off, rain will move back into the area by Wednesday afternoon, becoming heavy at times with thunderstorms POSSIBLE.  Right now, I don't think there will be enough instability for much thunderstorm activity, so expect all rain, as a moist flow from the Gulf of Mexico flows straight into the storm.  This will allow for heavy rainfall totals Wednesday night into Thursday morning.  My current thinking is that entire rainfall totals will be near 1-3 inches especially north and west of U.S. Route 24, including Antwerp.  Areas south of this line, will see lesser amounts from 0.75 inches to 1.00 inches.  Any heavy rainfall that occurs Wednesday Night will cause flooding and possibly flash flooding, renewing any river flood threat that has since disappeared.  Thursday morning, rain will be exiting the area, with a pre-frontal squall line moving through the area, bringing showers and possibly a thunderstorm.  Very windy conditions will be possible Wednesday night during the heavy rain, with gusts up to 40 mph.  As the cold front moves through Thursday, temperatures will drop from the lower 50's in the morning, to the mid 30's by Thursday evening.  Temperatures from Friday to Monday will likely be in lower to mid 30's on some days, with possibly a warming trend to start next week off.  This the uncertain part.  The ECMWF is forecasting much colder temperatures along with its ensembles.  With this in mind, the last several runs of the ECMWF have trended slightly farther northward, bringing a very strong storm system right over our area by Monday and Tuesday.  Temperatures will probably be cooler than what the NWS is forecasting, with highs in the low to mid 30's, as clouds increase ahead of this strong storm system.  The ECMWF is showing sleet and freezing over most of the area, as the 540 line (thickness between different levels of the atmosphere, this line indicates where snow will likely fall), will be positioned right over us or just to the south, but with below freezing temperatures.  This means that warm air aloft will cause melting of the snow, but it will refreeze once it falls to earth.  This could mean a heavy sleet and freezing rain storm for the area by next Monday night and Tuesday, with all precipitation changing to heavy snow by Tuesday afternoon and evening.  Remember this storm is about a week off, so a lot things could change by then, hopefully for the better, more snow!  Another one of the computer models, the GFS, is forecasting the storm track to be quite a bit farther to the north, bringing heavy rain into the region and even heavier rainfall amounts than the current storm system.  The thing is is that the GFS has precipitation ending as heavy snow across the area by Tuesday afternoon, as temperatures drop rapidly from the lower 40's to the 20's.  As I said before, this whole forecast could change for the better or for the worse in the next couple of days so stay tuned for further updates.  One last thing I want to talk about is a white christmas.  Current indications are that we have about a 50/50 chance of having at least an inch of snow on the ground by Christmas, with everything depending on next week's storm.  If it is a snowstorm for the area, snow will probably stick through Christmas, assuming that temperatures do not warm during the rest of the week.  Current indications are saying that after next week's storm, no matter if it is rain, snow, or sleet, will cause temperatures to rapidly tumble, to below normal values.  If forecasts for the warming of the stratosphere over the arctic Christmas week are true, very cold weather will likely stick around for the rest of December and even January, finally becoming aligned with the winter forecast of below normal temperatures.  Hopefully this is what happens, because I am tired of seeing warmth and rain, I want it to snow!  Keep checking my blog for further updates as this situation progresses.