Tuesday's Storm Potential

Right now, chances are again increasing for another heavy rainstorm for in our area in the Monday-Wednesday timeframe next week.  For some reason, the arctic air seems to be locked up in Alaska, Siberia, and extreme northern Canada, and will likely continue to be so through mid next week.  After that, everything gets a little fuzzy, especially around Christmas Day.  As for the medium range, next week's storm will more than likely be rain (sorry for you snow lovers, including myself).  This just has not been the December for major snow events.  The storm system will likely form from a cut off low ejecting from the Southwestern United States, into the Ohio and Great Lakes region.  According to the GFS and ECMWF, the storm will take a more southerly route than originally thought (Remember, originally the ECMWF was taking this storm way north of our area.).  The problem with these models is is that they are not showing any cold air north of this system, even it should be there.  So until the models come into agreement, we may not know exactly what will happen until Sunday or Monday.  It is a possibility that we do see a major snow event, especially in light of a good chunk of the models taking the storm system just to the south of our area, leaving us in the cooler, drier air.  This means we probably wont' rise much above the mid to upper 30's on Tuesday.  This might cause a wet and slushy ice storm across the area Tuesday morning.  This is not set in stone, and this may not come to light.  Right now, I think that the storm system will lift north, but the warm front will not pass through the area, keeping the area rainy and cold.  Rainfall amounts with this system will probably be closer to 1-3 inches once again, depending on precipitation type.  At this time, it looks like the rain/snow line will be located in extreme northern Indiana and Ohio, meaning a snowstorm for southern Michigan and northern parts of Indiana and Ohio (This includes everybody north of the Toll Road).  As always, if the storm would happen to shift southward, expect more snow across the entire area.  If the storm would happen to shift northward, expect very heavy rainfall amounts across the area.  As colder air rushes into the region by the end of the storm, a changeover to moderate or heavy snow is anticipated, causing at least minor accumulations.  As for my forecast for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, I expect yet another system to move through, causing snow and wind, potentially accumulating from an Alberta Clipper, or possibly a stronger storm system.  Highs will more than likely be in the 20's on Christmas Day, as cold air finally arrives.  As soon as a new pattern sets up, cold air will finally set in.  This will likely happen in the last few days of December, or January, bringing the worst of winter in January and February.  Stay tuned for further updates.