A Lot to Talk About.

I'm finally back.  I was camping down in Southern Ohio and Tennessee for all of last week.  While I was gone some interesting things have happened and now since I've been back a lot of interesting things have also happened.  Let's get down to business.  I first want to talk about the record heat in July.  According to the National Weather Service, July 2011 was the hottest July on record with an average temperature of 79.8 degrees, just shy of 80 degrees.  This beats the old record of 79.5 set in 1921.  We also had the second highest average high temperature on record of 91.0 degrees (to put this in perspective, we all thought last July was hot, well last July's average high temperature was only 88.6 degrees), only behind July 1955 (91.2 degrees) by 0.2 degrees.  July 2011's average low temperature was 68.6 degrees, which is the second highest average low temperature on record, behind July 1921 by a half of a degree.  July 2011 also had 22 90 degree days, which is the most on record for any given month in the entire recorded history of Fort Wayne.  This puts this year's total of 90 degree days at 29 which is more than last year.
     I also wanted to talk about the upcoming weather pattern.  According to the National Weather Service, there may be a pattern change coming up as the Central Plains ridge retrogrades westward.  When the ridge shifts westward, a wetter, cooler, stormier, pattern may come about in our area.  A northwest flow aloft will cause storms to ride up and over the ridge right into our area and along a stationary front that is supposed to form over our area early next week.  This could bring heavy rain events and widespread drought relief across the area.  This new pattern may also cause an uptick in the hurricane season activity.  Even with a trough building over our area, expect still above normal temperature for most of the next two weeks.  I will have another update tomorrow.

Extremely High Temperatures Yesterday... Highest in Twelve Years.

After morning lows around 77, temperatures rapidly rose under mostly sunny skies into the lower 100's in many areas.  In Antwerp, the high temperature was 102 degrees, which we haven't seen since 1995.  In Defiance, temperatures also rose to 102 which they haven't seen since July 14, 1995.  At Fort Wayne, the official high temperature was 100 degrees, which Fort Wayne hasn't seen since July 30, 1999.  Even though the temperatures were extremely high, dew points dropped into the low 70's in the afternoon, allowing heat indices to not be as high as what was originally forecasted in some areas.  Fort Wayne's highest heat index yesterday was 110, even though the forecasted heat index was 114.  But other areas exceeded the heat index forecast, with Paulding, Defiance, Huntington, Van Wert, and Bryan all reaching 116 in the afternoon.
     With these hot temperatures over the last six days, this year's average July temperature is solidly at 79.0 degrees which is 5.6 degrees above normal at Fort Wayne Baer Field, and is 6.2 degrees above normal at Defiance Memorial Airport.  After yesterday's 100 degree temperature, the number of 90+ degree days in July has risen to 14 which is even more than last year, and we thought last year was hot.  The total to date of 90+ degree days is currently 19.  After today, Saturday, and Sunday, this number will likely rise to 22.  To put this in perspective, the average number of 90 degree days in a year is 13 at Fort Wayne.  Usually, Fort Wayne receives 100 degree day every one or two years, but the last decade never had a single temperature above 96 degrees which was in June of 2005.
      Today, temperatures will once again rise into the mid 90's with dew points in the mid 70's, making it slightly more oppressive than yesterday.  If there is more cloud cover today, expect temperatures around 94.  If storms do not form and there is less cloud cover, expect temperatures once again the upper 90's to near 100.  Forecasted heat indices today range from 105 to 110, with some areas hitting 112, which is why we still have an Excessive Heat Warning, that is in effect until Saturday at 8 p.m.  Thunderstorms could be a threat today, especially towards afternoon and evening.  There is a chance that these thunderstorms do not form, because of a strong cap currently over the area, which will prevent thunderstorm development.  If the storm do form, they could be strong to severe with strong winds, large hail, and heavy rain.  These storms will most likely develop in an isolated fashion, which means that one town might get three inches of rain while another town might get a trace of rain.  By Saturday, our thunderstorm chances will increase as the cap breaks down and extreme instability builds with extremely high dew points and temperatures in the 90's.  On Sunday, the humidity levels will slowly decrease allowing the heat index to still rise over 100.  By Monday, temperatures will drop into the upper 80's, with much lower dew points and relative humidity.

Oppressive Heat At Its Worst. Heat Wave Records.

Already today, temperatures in most of Northwest Ohio and Northeast Indiana have already risen into the low to mid 90's as of 11:00 a.m.  The current temperature in Antwerp is a toasty 95 degrees, while in Defiance it is 93.  In Fort Wayne it is also 93, while in Toledo it is currently 96.  Dew points are also running high with Antwerp and Fort Wayne's dew point at 74, while at Toledo and Defiance it is 76, causing heat indices around 105.  Temperatures will continue to rise this afternoon, with most areas seeing 99 or 100 and a few seeing 101 to 104, especially around Toledo.  This afternoon, a shower or heavy thunderstorm is possible, but at a very small chance.  Any thunderstorm that hits will bring much needed relief from the oppressive heat and humidity, and alleviate dry conditions.  Lows will generally be in the middle 70's, with some areas dropping into the lower 70's, while others, especially near Toledo will drop into upper 70's to lower 80's.  Tomorrow, the excessive heat warning continues with temperatures once again expected to hit the mid 90's, with very high dew points allowing for the heat index to rise to near 105 to 110 once again.  On Friday, we have a much better chance for a shower or thunderstorm as a cold front approaches from the northwest, causing the cap to weaken.  The very hot temperatures and high humidity, will allow for extremely high instability to build into the region.  This combined with a weakening cap will allow very large and dangerous thunderstorms to form, but in a very isolated fashion.  The best chance for these storms will be across southern Michigan. On Saturday, the cold front will slow down quite a bit and become a stationary front in southern Michigan, which will allow the heat to stay here for another day or two.  Saturday's highs will hit the mid 90's, along with high humidity.  This will create extreme instability, and allow for an even better chance for storms than on Friday.  These storms will likely arrange themselves in thunderstorm complexes, which will bring the area heavy rain.  The same set up will happen again on Sunday, but with temperatures in the lower 90's.  On Sunday, more thunderstorm complexes will form bringing additional heavy rain.  By Monday, the cold front will slide through, dropping temperatures into the middle to upper 80's.
      According to the National Weather Service, the heat wave that has hit are area in the last week and a half, will be the longest duration heat wave since 1994, if the forecast goes as planned.  In all of the last decade, Fort Wayne has not recorded a single heat wave with more than five days in a row of 90 degree temperatures, but this heat wave, if the forecast goes as planned, will have nine days in a row of 90 degree heat, with possibly a one hundred degree day today, if no thunderstorms form.  In the history of Fort Wayne, there has only been 14 times in the 120 years of records that we have had a heat wave of nine consecutive days of 90 degree temperatures.  Some of the temperatures that have already occurred in the heat wave are the hottest in at least 12 years.

Oppressive Heat Continuing through Sunday.

This week has been extremely hot at Fort Wayne, and we haven't even hit the worst of the heat.  Highs today will hit the upper 90's with a few locations seeing the lower 100's.  This combined with dew points in the mid to upper 70's will cause outside conditions to feel like it is over 110 degrees.  Tomorrow, temperatures will most likely hit around 99 with a few locations, especially near Toledo, picking up 104 or 105.  Humidity values will also be high tomorrow, causing apparent temperatures around 110 to possibly even 115 degrees.  But tomorrow, we will have full sunshine unlike today where we had morning clouds.  Even with the hot temperatures, lows will only drop into the low 80's Wednesday night, and the mid to upper 70's Thursday night.  By Friday, temperatures will be back down in the mid to upper 90's, with still very high dew points.  Saturday also be sunny, but with a chance of a thunderstorm by late afternoon.  Highs will be in the mid 90's on Saturday, while dew points will still be very high, in the mid 70's.  By Sunday, temperatures will drop into the lower 90's, but with a likely chance of thunderstorms.  The main threats from these thunderstorms would be torrential rainfall and high winds.  The good news is is at that by Monday, our heat wave will be over with, as temperatures drop into the upper 80's.

Oppressive Heat to Continue All Week. Thunderstorm Potential

On Sunday, temperatures soared to the upper 90's over a large portion of Northwest Ohio, with Antwerp hitting a high of 98 degrees.  In Northeast Indiana, temperatures didn't quite as hot, as they only rose into the middle 90's.  Even though temperatures were quite hot, humidity levels were not as high as they were expected to be yesterday.  Overnight, temperatures only dropped into the middle 70's areawide, due to increasing cloud cover.  The humidity levels rose considerably, with dew points currently in the lower to middle 70's in most areas.  Temperatures as of 9:30 are in the lower to middle 80's with Antwerp, recording a temperature of 83 degrees with a heat index of 88.  Today, temperatures will likely rise into the lower and middle 90's before any storm activity develops.  Dew points are also expected to rise into the upper 70's by this afternoon, causing heat indices of 105 degrees before the storms form.  If no storms form this afternoon, expect temperatures to rise to around 96 degrees with incredibly high heat indices of 105 to 110.
      Storms could be violent today as a cold front from southeastern Canada slices through the heat and humidity.  Late this afternoon, a large and violent squall line could form and impact the region with winds as high as 90 mph.  These storms could bring several inches of rain tonight to isolated areas, helping to ease dry conditions.  The bad thing about getting heavy rain today is this could cause even higher dew point levels than were originally forecast, making the heat on Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday even more oppressive.  This is why the National Weather Service has issued an Excessive Heat Watch which could become a warning tomorrow afternoon if forecasted conditions remain the same.
     The rest of this week:  After Monday, temperatures should climb to around 96 on Tuesday, 97 Wednesday, near 100 on Thursday, and 97 Friday (Weather Channel's forecast for Antwerp)  According to the National Weather Service, temperatures should climb to 93 on Tuesday, 95 Wednesday, 97 Thursday, 95 on Friday, and 94 Saturday.  These temperatures combined with dew points in the mid 70's for most of the week, will allow heat indices to climb to high levels, near 110.

Extended Heat Wave to Arrive, Lasting to the End of the Month

Just this afternoon, the Climate Prediction Center updated their forecast for excessive heat on their U.S. Hazards Assessment.  Originally, there excessive heat forecast was for the plains from the 17th through the 21st.  Now, they are expecting excessive heat for most if not all of the Eastern United States from the 18th through the 31st.  They have also updated their outlook for temperatures for the 6-14 day period.  Now, they are predicting much above normal temperatures will be frequent all the way into the first week of August.  According to the Climate Prediction Center, the reason for the extreme temperatures is because of a large upper level ridge that has been persistent over the Central Plains for several weeks and has frequently shifted eastward bringing us bouts of heat.  This time, the ridge will expand, strengthen, and shift eastward over the next five days, bringing our area 90 degree heat, along with increasing humidity levels.  The large area of high pressure aloft will stall over the Central and Eastern United States, causing an extended period of heat and humidity, with the hottest temperatures over the Central Plains where it is the driest. 
Now for Northwest Ohio and Northeast Indiana, this upper level ridge will begin to cause temperatures to rise into the lower 90's tomorrow and Sunday.  According to the National Weather Service, a few thunderstorms may form in the afternoon, causing temperatures to not get as high as was originally expected.  This could happen again on Sunday, especially in Northwest Ohio, causing highs to only make it to the upper 80's.  By Monday, hot, humid, and sunny conditions will persist under a highly capped atmosphere, which will not allow thunderstorms to form on Monday.  Temperatures will be allowed to rise into the middle 90's on Monday with dew points in the mid-70's.  This will cause heat indices to rise into the lower 100's which is heat advisory criteria.  But the National Weather Service is cautious about issuing an advisory because of the fact that there may be some thunderstorm development.  On Tuesday, a strong cap will allow for completely sunny skies and hot and very humid conditions with highs around 94 and dew points in the middle 70's, which is why the National Weather Service may need to issue an Excessive Heat Warning on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.  After that, temperatures will continue to rise into the middle 90's, with no cooling coming in the foreseeable future.  Well, folks, I guess it really is turning into a hot summer after all.

Comfortable Temperatures Once Again. Major Heat Wave Threatens Records.

Once again today, temperatures have risen from the upper 50's this morning, to the lower to middle 80's as of 3:30 p.m.  Currently, the temperature at Antwerp is 84 degrees, after a morning low of 58 degrees.  The dew point temperature is at a very comfortable level, in the low to mid 50's, producing a heat index of 82.  Lows tonight will be slightly warmer than last night mainly due to high and mid level clouds moving into the region from MCS activity over Wisconsin and Minnesota.  Highs on Friday will be warmer than today, around 88 degrees tomorrow with mostly sunny skies.

     The upper level ridge that is causing the optimal summer conditions will soon lead to oppressive heat over three-quarters of the United States over at least the next week and a half.  This ridge is beginning to intensify, causing the heat wave to start over the plains tomorrow.  Locations that are near the core of the ridge aloft will have the highest temperatures of 105 to 110, with possibly higher temperatures occurring.  According to the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center, these temperatures will threaten records that were set during the infamous summer of 1980.  As the ridge shifts eastward, temperatures in this area will rebound into the lower to middle 90's for the foreseeable future.  According to the NWS's latest forecast discussion, temperatures could even rise into the lower 100's and could possibly hit 105 by Tuesday and Wednesday of next week in many locations in Northern Indiana and Northwest Ohio, with the highest probabilities over western Indiana.  The heat wave should last most or all of next week, and will more than likely bring about the issuance of a heat advisory or heat warning for several days next week.  As the heat wave shifts eastward, our area should have an increased southerly flow from the Gulf of Mexico, and by Sunday, our dew points will be in the low to middle 70's.  By Monday and Tuesday, our dew points could hit extreme levels as high as 79 degrees in the area.  This combined with temperatures in the middle 90's, will cause heat indices from 105 to 115 degrees, allowing the issuance of an excessive heat warning.  According to the NWS, the heat wave will likely for quite a few days before a shortwave flattens the ridge by the end of next week or the beginning of the week after that.

Intense Heat Wave on the Horizon; Pleasant Temperatures for the Near Future

Today, has been one of the nicest days of the summer, with near or just below average temperatures combined with low dew points in the 50's, is making for a very comfortable day.  Tomorrow will bring much of the same, with temperatures in the middle 80's and comfortable dew points in the 50's and maybe even low 60's, plus incredible sunshine will make it fell slightly hotter than 84.  On Friday, temperatures will begin to rise into the upper 80's, around 87 or 88, with dew points rising to slightly uncomfortable levels, into the mid 60's.  With the approach of the warm front, the National Weather Service (NWS) does not expect any thunderstorm activity due to the ridge putting a cap on the atmosphere.  This will lead to much warmer temperatures Thursday and Friday Night.  By Saturday, the ridge that was creating the heat wave in the Central and Southern Plains will finally expand eastward, causing temperatures to rise into the upper 80's to low 90's area wide, with dew points in the lower 70's, causing high heat indices. On Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, temperatures will likely rise into the middle 90's to upper 90's, with some areas picking up some 100 degree temperatures.  This combined with dew point temperatures in the low to mid 70's will cause very hot heat indices, and leading to the hottest and longest heat wave of the season.  The reason for the length of the heat wave, is because according to the National Weather Service, strong capping and the intense ridge will not allow any cold fronts to penetrate this far south or any "backdoor cold fronts" to sweep through the region.  So the heat wave could last a lot longer than anticipated, unless the ridge is able to break down.

      The pattern over the next two weeks will be much of the same with several intense heat waves over the plains, due to a stagnant subtropical ridge of high pressure in the 500 hpa level of the atmosphere.  We will continue to be above normal in temperatures until around September.  Precipitation wise, the Climate Prediction Center, believes that pockets of the thunderstorms will arrive in our area as the ridge collapses or expands across our area.  This will cause above normal rainfall across area for the next several weeks.

Damage Reports and Photos From Derecho.

Yesterday, around the midday hours, a line of intense thunderstorms moved through the area, bringing with it high winds in excess of 70 mph.  The intense winds caused tree damage all over Northwest Ohio and Northeast Indiana, including several trees that fell in Antwerp.  In Antwerp, a large tree fell on a house on the corner of Madison and W. River Street, as winds of up to 70 mph gusted through Antwerp, before the leading edge of thunderstorms moved through.  According to the SPC, whoever made the report to the National Weather Service, also reported that multiple other trees were down across Antwerp, along with numerous tree limbs.  In Paulding, winds were actually measured at 71 mph at the EMA office.  In Fort Wayne, trees and power lines were reported down all throughout the city, as winds were estimated in city at 70 mph.  On I-69, a semi-truck was flipped over by the strong winds in De Kalb County.  Not only was there wind damage here in Northwest Ohio, but severe wind damage was especially bad along the Ohio/Michigan/Indiana state line corridor, where numerous trees were reported down in Angola and Fremont, along with numerous power outages in the area.  The severe storms that made up the squall line initially formed on Sunday afternoon, in western Nebraska.  These storms were initially forecasted to move into the regions of high instability across Missouri and Illinois when the storms were over eastern Nebraska, but there was a very strong cap in the atmosphere, preventing any storms from forming in these areas.  This caused something called the "ring of fire effect", which means that storms rode up and over the ridge of high pressure which was causing an extreme heat wave across most of the central and southern United States.  The storms finally congealed into a squall line over Iowa by early morning Monday, causing numerous reports of severe wind damage and power outages.  By about 8 a.m., the storms had moved into the Chicago area, producing winds in excess of 80 mph, all throughout Chicago.  This caused over 800,000 power outages at one time in the Chicago area, making it one of the largest power outages in one of the electric company's history.  These then produced the highest winds over Northwest Indiana, where Michigan City, IN reported winds as high as 85 mph.  When the storms made it our area, they had begun to turn southeastward and headed into central Ohio.  By this time the storms began to restrengthen, after they had weakened over North Central Ohio.  The storms continued to produce wind damage all the way to Chesapeake Bay.
       Just to the south of this squall line, an intense heat wave was ongoing across most of Indiana, Illinois, most of the Ohio Valley, and most of the Southern United States.  Not only was their high heat, but humidity levels were approaching record highs.  Dew points as high as 85 degrees were reported as far north as Lafayette, IN.  There was actually a widespread area of 80+ degree dew points, with a much larger area of 70+ degree dew points.  These extremely high dew points combined with temperatures in the upper 90's and lower 100's across a vast area, were causing heat indices as high as 128 degrees in Northern Kentucky and Lower Indiana.  These levels were actually the highest in the world at that time.
      If any of you have additional damage photos, please e-mail them to me at storm_reportsjoshua@yahoo.com.  Thank you!

Elevated Risk for Severe Storms in Our Area... Rapidly Rising Temperatures this Morning

As of 9:30 a.m., the Storm Prediction Center has upgraded our area from a slight risk of severe storms to a moderate risk of severe storms, which greatly increases our chance for thunderstorms (which is good news, right).  Right now, a severe Derecho squall line is moving east-northeast through downtown Chicago.  Our area should not be affected by this squall line, mainly because radar tendencies of the past few hours have shown that this line of storms is weakening, and it is also moving north of our area.  If it decides to change track, then the northern half of the area will probably get hit with quite a bit of wind and hail damage.  This afternoon,  storms should fire up again, and congeal into a derecho squall line, possibly producing winds in excess of 90 mph.  This is the reason our area was upgraded to a moderate risk.  Storms will then continue to form through the evening hours before diminishing after 10 p.m.  Tomorrow could bring a slight risk of storms, depending on how far south the front penetrates.  Other than that, the sun tomorrow will cause temperatures to rise to near 94 degrees.
       Temperatures have risen rapidly from 73 degrees this morning, to a toasty 85 degrees at 9:45.  Temperatures will continue to rise this afternoon into the middle 90's with increasing humidity, making it feel like 103 degrees.  This may prompt the issuance of a heat advisory for Northwest Ohio.  Dew points have risen quite a bit this morning; from 63 at 6:00 a.m. to 69 at 9:00 a.m.  This has caused a heat index of 90 degrees in Antwerp.  The dew point will continue to rise this afternoon into the middle 70's as extremely humid air advects eastward.  This extremely unstable atmospheric setup will cause the severe storms this afternoon.

Warm and Humid this Morning... Hotter, More Humid Air Mass to Move in

     This morning, current temperatures are residing in the middle 70's across far western Ohio and Indiana, while areas near Toledo are still in the upper 60's and lower 70's.  Dew points are making it quite muggy this morning, with dew points in the middle 60's across Northwest Ohio and far eastern Indiana, while a much more humid air mass resides just off to the west across western Indiana and eastern Illinois.  Dew points there are in the middle and upper 70's.  This same air mass is expected to move east-northeastward, bringing us extremely humid conditions by afternoon, with highs in the middle 90's.  If storms form and hit areas this morning like they could, then expect afternoon highs to be a bit lower than expected. 

      Currently there is a Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect for Northeast Indiana, in effect until 1:00 p.m.  Storms currently over Iowa will move over an area of high instability, allowing the storms to regain lost strength and move eastward.  These storms may hit us, but more than likely they will die out before they hit us, because of the low instability in our area.  A heat advisory is also in effect for Northern Indiana, and parts of Northwest Ohio such as Van Wert county.
      After overnight lows tonight in the mid 70's, temperatures tomorrow will likely rise into the middle 90's in southern portions of the area, such as the Fort Wayne area and south, while north to the Michigan state line, temperatures will be in the lower 90's.  In Michigan and Northwest Indiana, temperatures will drop into lower and middle 80's behind the cold front.  By Wednesday, temperatures areawide will be in the lower 80's, right near average.  On Thursday and Friday, temperatures will rise into the mid and upper 80's, before highs again hit the mid 90's by next weekend.

Variations in Climate Part III: The Middle Latitudes

In last two weeks, I have talked about the climate patterns in the tropics and the subtropics. Because the sun heats the tropics most intensely, a Hadley cell forms, causing thunderstorms to form along a line called the Intertropical Convergence Zone. The poleward flow aloft begins to sink around 30 degrees north and south latitude. This sinking of air creates the world's largest deserts in this region, and also the world's hottest places. We also talked about how not every desert within the subtropics is actually hot, such as the Atacama Desert, the driest desert in the world. These kind of deserts form along the west coasts of most continents, mainly because of cold currents that cause fog and cool conditions along the western coasts. I also described how the Intertropical Convergence Zone can create a hurricane if it moves in the region of the subtropics. Since the wind flow in the tropics influences the wind flow in the subtropics, it also controls the wind flow within the middle latitudes, the stormiest place in the world. When the air flow begins to subside and sink around 30 degrees north and south latitude, the Coriolis force deflects the diverging winds to the right, causing some of the wind to bend southward and become the relatively weak trade winds. But some of the wind is also deflected northward and then finally westward when it reaches the middle latitudes. (in between latitudes of 30 and 60 degrees north.) This is why many places within the middle latitudes have a predominant wind flow from the west, also known as the prevailing westerlies. But as you all know, these winds occur less then half of the time, and this is because the traveling surface cyclones and anticyclones disrupt the generally westerly winds.

Unlike most places in the tropics and in the subtropics, middle latitude climates can change drastically from winter into summer, with spring and fall being the stormiest depending on where you live. The main and most important factor of the middle latitude climates is the position of the polar and subtropical jet streams, with the polar jet stream being the most important. These jet streams, as I have explained in past articles, create storm systems, destroy them, distribute heat energy, wind energy, and momentum; also distributing pressure differences between different areas of the earth. This is the article in which I will explain how the jet streams form in depth, without going in depth about cyclogenesis and storm formation. As I have said many times, the tropics are heated intensely while the poles have a net loss of solar radiation, causing warm temperatures in the tropics, while the poles experience generally extremely cold temperatures during most of the year, with the largest temperature difference being in the winter. But the reason why the jet stream forms is because, warm temperatures at the surface always mean, higher pressure surfaces or heights in the atmosphere while in a column of cold air, lower pressure surfaces or heights in the atmosphere. Since all things have the tendency of falling downhill, air that is over the higher pressure or heights in the atmosphere will flow towards the lower pressure or lower heights in the atmosphere. This means that aloft, the wind flows from the tropics toward the poles. Due to the Coriolis force, this mean south wind is eventually turned westward to flow parallel to the isobars over the middle latitudes. This is how a jet stream is formed. Now for the flow aloft to intensify, as stated in a past article, the temperature gradient has to increase over a short distance, which will strongly amplify the flow aloft. These jet streams form because this is the atmosphere's method of distributing not only heat energy, but wind energy and momentum in the atmosphere. For some reason distributing equally seems to be nature's main purpose in almost every aspect.

Because the jet stream's position is determined by the position of the temperature gradient at the surface, we can assume that the jet stream's position changes based on the position of the sun, mainly because the position of the sun usually determines which areas are going to be the hottest. Because of this, southern areas of the middle latitudes always have the most widespread storminess during the winter and spring. During the summer, the most extreme southern portions of the middle latitudes have dry season during the summer, because of the subtropical high. Even though they have a dry season, quite a few of these areas experience hurricanes during the summer, making for a very wet season. Farther north, such as in areas of the Southern United States north of Florida, these places are wet year round, because during the winter, they experience widespread storminess, but during the summer, a type of monsoonal flow causes daily afternoon thunderstorms because of the proximity of the ocean and the high heat in these areas.(this type of pattern is most predominant over of the Four Corners region of the United States, where daily afternoon thunderstorms can cause heavy rainfall.) North of this region, including the Ohio Valley, southern Great Lakes, and the Mid-Atlantic states, storminess is usually year round (even though the new pattern over the last several years has been extremely wet springs, followed by extremely hot, dry summers, typical of the Deep South.). The jet stream generally brings heavy snowstorms and heavy ice storms to these regions in winter, followed by heavy rain events that lead to flooding in spring, followed by severe weather outbreaks during the early and mid summers. This makes these regions the most storm ridden region of the United States. Along the Pacific Coast, rainfall patterns usually bring extremely wet and stormy winters, followed by cool, dry summers, with the occasional heat wave farther inland. In Alaska, the northern branch of the polar jet stream causes extremely stormy conditions year-round. This is because of the Aleutian low, which usually cause waves of low pressure to hit the southern coast of Alaska daily. This causes extremely heavy snowfall for these areas, with many locations picking up as much 200 inches of snow in one winter season! Northern Alaska is influenced by the polar easterlies, allowing for extremely cold and dry conditions. For the Northern Plains, Great Lakes, and New England, conditions are usually wet year round around the Great Lakes and New England, but in the Northern Plains, winters are usually dry, even though this region experiences the most blizzards of any region of the United States. The snowfall to water to ratio is very low in these areas, which means that 20 inches of snow can fall in one day, but the amount of precipitation in that snow could be 0.5 inches. During the summer, all three of these regions experience a summertime severe weather phenomena called MCCs, which are Mesoscale Convective Complexes, which can cause widespread severe weather and heavy rainfall.

Temperatures contrasts are the most extreme in the middle latitudes than in any other part of the world. These temperature contrasts are brought about by the shifting highs and lows of the ever meandering jet stream. In winter, areas in the extreme Deep South (southern portions of the Gulf Coast states, Florida, Texas, and the Southwest) usually bask in mild temperatures ranging from the 70's in Florida, while in Texas cold weather is much more common allowing for average temperatures to be in the 40's in Dallas and Houston, while extreme southern Texas cities can experience 80's all winter long. Sometimes extreme cold outbreaks reach these areas, causing orange crop damage in Florida and Texas. In the winter of 2009-2010, cold outbreaks cause billions of dollars in damage to citrus fruit in Florida and Texas. During the summer, temperatures usually rise into the middle and upper 90's over Florida, along with very humid conditions, which causes high heat indices making for a very uncomfortable summer. In Texas, temperatures become even hotter, usually reaching the 100's and the occasional 110 in western Texas, but with much lower humidity, while east Texas's climate is virtually the same as Florida's. Over the mid-south, temperatures range in the 40's and 30's for wintertime highs, meaning that freezes are very common to these areas. Several times every winter, a cold wave descends out of Canada, causing temperatures in the twenties and teens, which many people in these areas are not used to. Also, the occasional snowstorm during the winter can really paralyze the region, since most cities do not have the equipment to remove the snow and ice. Summertime commonly brings extremely hot and humid conditions, also making for an uncomfortable summer. Over the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic states, and the Southern Great Lakes and Midwest, frequent snowstorms hit these areas, causing as much as three feet of snow to fall, making it one of the snowiest regions of the countries. These areas are almost always below freezing during the winter and the occasional arctic outbreak can bring low temperatures below zero. In the summer, these regions have daytime averages in the upper 80's, with frequent middle 90's temperatures. Sometimes during intense heat waves, temperatures can pass the one hundred degree mark, especially in July. In the Northern United States, (Northern Plains, Great Lakes, and New England) temperatures are usually bitterly cold in these regions, with the coldest temperatures residing over the Northern Plains, where daily minimums can be lower than negative 40 degrees. Daily highs during the winter are usually just above zero, while during a arctic outbreak, daily highs don't even get above negative 10. Summertime highs are generally mild with temperatures mostly in the upper 70s to 80's, with the occasional heat wave bringing nineties to the Northeast but 100's to North and South Dakota.

The climate over the middle latitudes is so complicated mainly because it can be different and can change from one year to the next. It is also so complicated that it would many of my articles to explain and a lot of the factors that influence the climate in the middle latitudes is to difficult for even meteorologists to understand. For this reason, forecasts are most difficult to make in the mid-latitudes and is still trying to be understand.

Hot afternoon temperatures; Becoming Increasingly Humid Overnight

Temperatures currently are hitting the lower to middle 90's, with Antwerp currently at 94 degrees while Fort Wayne is at 92 degrees.  Current dew points are quite a bit lower than what was expected for this afternoon.  Dew points across Northwest Ohio are generally in the upper 50's and lower 60's while dew points across central Indiana are in the middle to upper 60's, producing heat indices near 96 degrees.  Tonight, as the warm front approaches and passes, the humidity will be on the rise making for a very muggy night, especially after midnight.  Dew points will rise from the 60's by nightfall to the lower to middle 70's by daybreak tomorrow.  Along with the increasing humidity will come the chance of showers and thunderstorms overnight, which could possibly organize into MCCs, which would bring heavy rainfall to the area.

Afternoon Highs in the 90's... Humid Air Arriving Tomorrow

Currently temperatures at 10 p.m. are ranging from the upper 70's in Northeast Indiana to the lower 80's in Northwest Ohio.  In Antwerp, the temperature has fallen to 82, after an afternoon high of at least 93 degrees in most areas.  Dew points today have been very low, ranging mostly in the upper 40's and lower 50's, allowing for a hot, but comfortably humid set up.  Overnight lows will fall into the lower to middle 60's, under mostly clear skies.  Even though temperatures will fall rapidly, dew points will actually rise tonight, into the lower and middle 60's by early Sunday morning, allowing the possibility of fog to come into the forecast.  Temperatures will then rapidly rise into the lower to middle 90's, with dew points rising into the upper 60's, in the vicinity of an approaching warm front.  The moderately high dew point values will cause heat index temperatures in the middle to upper 90's.  The same warm front will approach during the overnight hours, bringing the possibility of showers and thunderstorms late Sunday Night, with the greatest threat and coverage over Northwest Indiana and Illinois.  Monday, even hotter temperatures in the middle 90's, along with dew point temperatures in the mid 70's, will cause heat indices to rise into the range of 102 to 105, which meets Heat Advisory Criteria.  According to the National Weather Service, they are not sure at this time whether to issue a heat advisory, mainly because of the possibility of thunderstorms that could really limit daytime heating in some areas, especially in Northwest Indiana and Illinois.  Maximum heating will take place in extreme eastern Indiana and Northwest Ohio due to clear skies and dry soil conditions.  Hopefully thunderstorms form on Monday Afternoon, which could cause rainfall amounts of over two inches in scattered areas (hopefully in the Fort Wayne area, because we need it really bad!!)  For the rest of the week, temperatures will remain around 92 on Tuesday after a cold front moves through, but the humidity will definitely drop.  Wednesday and Thursday, temperatures will rise into the upper 80's, before another heat wave begins to hit our area on Friday.  According to the Climate Prediction Center and Accuweather, this same heat wave will likely last through the next week in many areas, before the ridge begins to retrograde westward.

Very Warm Temperatures this Morning...

Currently temperatures across Northwest Ohio and Northeast Indiana are ranging from the upper 70's to the lower 80's as of 10 a.m.  At Antwerp, temperatures are currently at 81 degrees while Fort Wayne they are at 80 degrees.  Other cities temperatures include:

Angola, IN: 79 degrees
Auburn, IN: 79 degrees
Defiance, OH: 79 degrees
Napoleon, OH: 81 degrees
Toledo, OH: 85 degrees
Sandusky, OH: 76 degrees
Paulding, OH: 79 degrees

By four this afternoon, temperatures in most of the area should be in the lower 90's, with the exception of Toledo and adjacent towns, who should be in the middle 90's this afternoon.  Tonight, temperatures will drop into the middle and upper 60's, much warmer than last night.  By  tomorrow, temperatures should rise to the lower to middle 90's and with much higher humidity, we will have heat indices in the upper 90's.  Some areas tomorrow, such as Toledo and adjacent areas, will see highs in the upper 90's.  Monday, will bring back the chance for showers and thunderstorms to the area, but convection will have more of an isolated nature.  Any storms that do form will have the potential to produce heavy rain and maybe gusty winds.  According to Accuweather and the Climate Prediction Center, an intense heat wave may be on the horizon for the Central and Eastern United States, due to higher than normal heights in the 500 hpa layer of the atmosphere.  Our area could even approach one hundred degrees by next Sunday.  Stay tuned for later updates.

Anniversary of Heat Wave of 1936; Somewhat Wetter this Week, But Still Hot

Yesterday and Today, (depending on what city you were in) marks the beginning of the infamous July 1936 North American Heat Wave, which caused extreme drought over a good chunk of North America.  Record high average temperatures were set in many states, along with record daily highs every day of the heat wave in many cities across the Midwest.  At Fort Wayne International Airport, daily record highs were recorded every day from the 8th of July to the 14th.  These temperatures were: 104 on the 8th; 102 on the 9th; 102 on the 10th; 98 on the 11th; 103 on the 12th; 104 on the 13th; and the hottest temperature of 106 (also Fort Wayne's all-time hottest temperature on record) occurred on the 14th.  These temperatures coincided with an extreme drought at Fort Wayne (the next drought of the proportions of 1936 was in 1988). 
      Now as for the weather patterns for the next several weeks, the pattern, according to the Climate Prediction Center, will feature a strong longwave trough in the West, which will continue to cause a strong ridge to form over the Central and Eastern United States.  This strong ridge will aid the hot temperatures around, more than likely to cause our temperatures to hover near the lower 90's for most of the summer, which is much warmer than normal.  This longwave ridge pattern could even several intense heat waves to form from now through the beginning of August.  This week, though, three or four days starting today and lasting through Tuesday, will be in the 90's, which qualifies as a heat wave in the definition of a heat wave as given by the National Weather Service in Northern Indiana.  On Monday and Tuesday, thunderstorms are a possibility as more humid air arrives in the region, causing high heat indices.   The thunderstorms will be mainly isolated to scattered and will be more of a pulse storm nature instead of in organized bands, much like the same pattern of the last month.  By Friday, thunderstorms could bring heavy rainfall again but to isolated, because again they will be more of a pulse storm nature.  I really don't see any organized thunderstorm formation unless the ridge that is over the Eastern United States, breaks down and allows several shortwave impulses to impact the area with organized severe thunderstorm events.  Other than that, if the ridge does not break down, then expect warm to hot temperatures over the next several weeks.

Very Warm for July

All of this week, temperatures have been warm to hot, as temperatures have hovered around the lower 90's all week long.  This pattern will continue as an upper level ridge builds into the region tomorrow into Sunday.  Saturday and Sunday will both be in the lower 90's, not only hot temperatures but higher humidity as well.  By Monday, thunderstorms will be back in the forecast, with even more humid and hotter conditions, with temperatures in the middle 90's.  Also the possibility of strong thunderstorms comes into play Monday through Friday next week, with heavy rain being the primary threat, which is good news for our parched ground.  According the National Weather Service, a much wetter pattern will come into play over the next week, with hopefully several inches coming for the Fort Wayne area.  All of next week temperatures will range from the middle 80's to the lower 90's.  Tomorrow, I will have a longer blog post about the rest of the summer and the upcoming pattern.

Warm Temperatures once again this afternoon... Last blog post until Friday evening

After an extremely hot, humid day yesterday, a cold front moved through last night bringing with it showers and thunderstorms, with most of the activity to the south and west of Fort Wayne.  Today, temperatures have risen quite a bit into the upper 80's as of 1 p.m. across most of the area.  Over the next week or so, temperatures will stay steady in the mid to upper 80's, with the possibility of another heat wave coming by week's end.  This is also the last blog post until Friday early evening, when I will get back from summer camp.  Well, for now, see you then.

Hot, Humid Weather Has Overspread the Region; Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect.

    After mostly cloudy skies this morning, skies have become mostly sunny, allowing temperatures to rise into the middle 90's this afternoon.  As of 2:45, Antwerp's current temperature stands at a toasty 95 degrees, while dew points are very high, in the low to middle 70's.  Other current temperatures, dew points, and heat indices include:

Fort Wayne, Ind:  93 degrees/DP 73/ Heat Index: 103
Defiance, OH: 92 degrees/ DP 72/ Heat Index: 101
Auburn, Ind: 94 degrees/ DP 72/ Heat Index: 102
Angola, Ind: 93 degrees/ DP 74/Heat Index: 104
Paulding, OH: 94 degrees/ DP 70/ Heat Index: 101
Ottawa, OH: 91 degrees/ DP 68/ Heat Index: 96
Lima, OH: 86 degrees/ DP 69/ Heat Index: 91
Napoleon, OH: 94 degrees/ DP 71/ Heat Index: 101

   With the hot temperatures and high humidity, extreme instability has been allowed to build over the area, with CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy, a measure of instability in the atmosphere) values ranging 4500 in far Northwestern Ohio to 6500 in western Indiana.  When values reach these levels, they are classified in the extreme category.  This has caused the Storm Prediction Center to issue a high end Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 11 pm tonight.  In one of their Mesoscale Discussions, the SPC said that severe storm potential in the lower Great Lakes is greater than 70%, which means that severe thunderstorms are likely across the area later this afternoon.  Temperatures will likely continue rising to the mid to upper 90's with increasing dew point values as the cold front nears.  Dew point values could actually increase to near 76 or 77 before the cold front passes through around midnight.  Tonight's lows will drop into the lower 70's and a few isolated areas into the upper 60's.  Tomorrow's highs will range from the mid 80's near the Michigan/Ohio/Indiana border to the upper 80's and lower 90's around Fort Wayne and Lima.

Humid Air Overspreading the Region; Heavy Thunderstorms Developing to Our West

This morning temperatures are very warm with most places currently in the lower 70's.  In Antwerp, the current temperature is 73, while Fort Wayne is currently at 72.  Not only is it very warm, but it is becoming much more humid over the next several hours.  Dew points at Antwerp, are in the lower 60's and in most other parts of Northwest Ohio and Northeast Indiana, while areas in Western Indiana and Eastern Illinois have dew points in the 70's.  Because of the high dew points in western Indiana, large and dangerous thunderstorms have formed over Lake Michigan and have been producing flash flooding over adjacent counties as the storms move southward.  These storms pose no threat to our area, mainly because they are riding the edge of the ridge in the plains southward. 
    If temperatures rise quickly, then highs could hit the lower 90's or even mid 90's with much higher heat indices.  This would most likely happen in far eastern Indiana and Northwest Ohio, because these areas have no cloud cover.  This afternoon, an isolated heavy thunderstorm or two can not be ruled as the upper level ridge shifts eastward and flattens.  Lows tonight will drop into the lower 70's, bringing highs with it tomorrow in the middle 90's and heat indices over one hundred degrees.  After a cold front moves through Sunday, temperatures will drop into the upper 80's, while dew points drop to the mid 60's.