Friday, July 15, 2011

Extended Heat Wave to Arrive, Lasting to the End of the Month

Just this afternoon, the Climate Prediction Center updated their forecast for excessive heat on their U.S. Hazards Assessment.  Originally, there excessive heat forecast was for the plains from the 17th through the 21st.  Now, they are expecting excessive heat for most if not all of the Eastern United States from the 18th through the 31st.  They have also updated their outlook for temperatures for the 6-14 day period.  Now, they are predicting much above normal temperatures will be frequent all the way into the first week of August.  According to the Climate Prediction Center, the reason for the extreme temperatures is because of a large upper level ridge that has been persistent over the Central Plains for several weeks and has frequently shifted eastward bringing us bouts of heat.  This time, the ridge will expand, strengthen, and shift eastward over the next five days, bringing our area 90 degree heat, along with increasing humidity levels.  The large area of high pressure aloft will stall over the Central and Eastern United States, causing an extended period of heat and humidity, with the hottest temperatures over the Central Plains where it is the driest. 
Now for Northwest Ohio and Northeast Indiana, this upper level ridge will begin to cause temperatures to rise into the lower 90's tomorrow and Sunday.  According to the National Weather Service, a few thunderstorms may form in the afternoon, causing temperatures to not get as high as was originally expected.  This could happen again on Sunday, especially in Northwest Ohio, causing highs to only make it to the upper 80's.  By Monday, hot, humid, and sunny conditions will persist under a highly capped atmosphere, which will not allow thunderstorms to form on Monday.  Temperatures will be allowed to rise into the middle 90's on Monday with dew points in the mid-70's.  This will cause heat indices to rise into the lower 100's which is heat advisory criteria.  But the National Weather Service is cautious about issuing an advisory because of the fact that there may be some thunderstorm development.  On Tuesday, a strong cap will allow for completely sunny skies and hot and very humid conditions with highs around 94 and dew points in the middle 70's, which is why the National Weather Service may need to issue an Excessive Heat Warning on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.  After that, temperatures will continue to rise into the middle 90's, with no cooling coming in the foreseeable future.  Well, folks, I guess it really is turning into a hot summer after all.

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