Season's First Heat Wave

As of 6 a.m. Sunday, May 27, 2012, the National Weather Service has issued a heat advisory for parts of the area, including the counties of Lagrange, IN; DeKalb, IN; Defiance, OH; Paulding, OH; Putnam, OH; Allen, IN; Whitley, IN; Noble, IN; Van Wert, OH; Adams, IN; Wells, IN; and Huntington, IN (this is the area that I consider when I forecast the weather with a few exceptions.).  The National Weather Service is expecting heat indices near 100 today in most areas except extreme Northern Indiana and extreme northeastern Indiana (mainly northeast parts of the forecast area).  With dew points in the mid to upper 60's by this afternoon, combined with temperatures rapidly rising into the lower 90's by noon, I expect it will feel like one of the hottest days that Antwerp has seen since last July (which is true!).  It is possible that by afternoon that mixing is so deep that it mixes extremely dry air to the surface from the 700 millibar level, which would drop dew point readings into the lower 60's, but causing hotter temperatures closer to one hundred.  The main reason for this kind of record-breaking heat is because of the strong ridge of high pressure just above us.  In the upper atmosphere, an area of high pressure is equivalent to a deep layer of warm air (due to equations such as the ideal gas law and the hypsometric equation).  Therefore, a ridge of high pressure in the upper atmosphere could be used to define where a surface warm air mass is located.  Strong subsidence within the high contribute to the warmth too, because air sinks it warms quickly if it is unsaturated (below 100% relative humidity).  Not only that, but during the summer months, as warm air masses advect into a region and solar heating commences, strong mixing occurs within the boundary layer, which deepens the layer and mixes warm air to the surface.  For example, 850 millibar (a height of about 1560 to 1590 meters today) temperatures will be close to 24 degrees Celsius by afternoon.  As the winds increase today, strong mixing will occur, bringing that warm to the surface.  The mixed air will increase its temperature at the rate of 10 degrees Celsius per 1000 meters.  Since the height of the 850 millibar level this afternoon will be about 1590 meters, first divide the number by a thousand and then multiply it by 10 to get 15.9.  Add this to 24 to get 39.9.  Right now, I do not think temperatures will approach 104 this afternoon (mainly because 850 millibar temperatures probably will not make it past 22, which would yield highs near 98 or 99).  Back to the forecast.  Areas generally northeast of Route 6 will not see temperatures that hot, mainly because of the slow movement of the warm front and cold outflow boundaries from storms farther north last night, which will keep temperatures up there below 95.  If we're talking about Fort Wayne's weather, it's a completely different story.  If temperatures reach over 95 today, it will break the all-time record high for May. That's two all-time records broken in one year (a high of 87 back in March, broke the 100 year old record)!  Since I am expecting Fort Wayne to be one of the hottest int the region due to its dryness, my forecast is calling for high temperatures from 97-99 by this afternoon, which is incredibly hot.  In fact, of the last 12 years of the 21st century, in only one year (other than this year) has Fort Wayne seen temperatures higher than 95 and for more than one day in a row, and that was in 2011.  The year before that saw 95 degrees was in June 2005, and that was for only one day.  In 2011, we hit 95 or higher for 7 or 8 consecutive days (but that was in July).  I nearly certain that temperatures will shatter May's all time record.  Even tonight's low could shatter the record high minimum low (for those of you who are confused by this the warmest nighttime low).  If we only get down to 73 by tomorrow morning, it will break the previous record for May which was 72.  As for any rainfall today, there is a near 0% of rainfall anywhere south of Route 6.   If you are north of the highway, the cap may be weak enough and instability strong enough to cause isolated showers and thunderstorms, which could also limit daytime highs.  By tomorrow, temperatures will drop slightly but still be in the mid 90's, but with higher dew points, which could make it feel unbearable.  Thunderstorms are also possible area wide, but in my opinion, the shortwave that will drop a cold front through the area will be too far north to cause widespread thunderstorm activity, even with the strong instability forecast by afternoon.  By nightfall, though, I do expect a better chance of thunderstorms, but then again, given the dry pattern, it certainly isn't all that likely.  After the cold front moves through temperatures will drop into the lower 80's by Tuesday, and then the lower 70's by Wednesday and Thursday, and yet another cold front will drop temperatures into the upper 60's by Friday.  For all you warmth lovers, don't fret just yet, according to long-range guidance, after this Friday, yet another strong ridge will build into the Central Plains and East, bringing another heat wave that could be even worse than this one.  Right now, this looks to happen around June 6-12.  Enjoy the warm weather!

Warm, Humid this morning

After an overcast morning, the skies have cleared partially, allowing for rapidly warming temperatures along with increasing humidity levels.  In fact, most areas now are seeing temperatures in the mid 80's with dew points in the mid 60's, making it very uncomfortable.  The reason for the warm temperatures and high humidity is because of the fact that the cold front has slowed down significantly and has almost stalled.  Current short range model forecasts are still showing the front move through by noon, only bringing lower humidity not cooler conditions.  For this reason I am going to raise high temperatures for today into the lower 90's, especially south of Route 6.  Dew points will decrease considerably during the afternoon (below 50 to be exact), leading to much more comfortable conditions even with 90 degree temperatures.  By tonight, the same stalling front will surge back north as a warm front, bringing extremely humid conditions along with even warmer temperatures.  A few showers and thunderstorms may accompany the frontal passage, but it is likely that upper level ridging will hamper much thunderstorm activity, with areas west of Fort Wayne the most likely to see any kind of showers and thunderstorms.  For tomorrow, expect temperatures to surge into the low to mid 90's with dew points in the upper 60's.  Not every place in Northwest Ohio will see this kind of warmth and humidity, especially north of Route 6, where periodic showers and storms will possible in the morning north of the warm front.  By Saturday Night, a nice, warm and humid night is in store, with most places not dropping below 71 or 72.  On Sunday, a very hot, humid and oppressive day is in store, with high temperatures soaring to the upper 90's and some areas might even see 100.  It will be one of the hottest days ever recorded in May and one of the earliest 95+ temperatures on record.  By Monday, temperatures will not be as warm as on Sunday, but it will still be hot and humid, with high temperatures approaching the low to mid 90's once again.  By nightfall, storms will be possible as a frontal system approaches the area.  This will front that ends it all, with temperatures plummeting back into the lower 80's on Tuesday, and the lower 70's by Wednesday and Thursday.  After that, it seems as if we will be seeing cooler for a few more days before returning back to the 90's.  Enjoy the nice summer weather!

Drought Advancing

I said I would post an article on the drought and so I will.  For "official" measurements, visit www.crh.noaa.gov/iwx.  So far this May, most of the area has seen less than an inch of rain (excluding areas north of Route 6 and east of Defiance, with the epicenter of this rainfall deficit centered between Fort Wayne and Antwerp (including the two places).  In fact, it has been so dry that in the last 14-20 days, most areas have not seen rain, which is extremely rare in a spring month.  This has created a rainfall deficit of nearly 2-3 inches since the start of May, and an inch and a half rainfall deficit for the month of April.  Most of you probably have noticed that your yard does not look like it was May, but rather August.  WE really have a serious situation on our hands which will continue to impact our weather throughout the summer and into the fall.  My bet is that we end May with little more rainfall than we have right now, given the fact that most of the rainfall from the next two storm systems will bypass the area well to the north, I do not expect much if any rainfall when this heat wave comes to an end.  As I have talked about before in past blogposts, rainfall deficits lead to dry ground, and dry ground is able to heat up faster and to higher temperatures than wet ground.  Obviously, this is probably one of the most pronounced affects of the drought, with the sun causing warmer temperatures, which may lead to a hotter summer than originally forecast.  One less obvious effect of the drought, is the fact that it will lead to a positive feedback process (a process in which one variable "positively" influences another variable, leading to an enhancement in the process).  I am expecting that this drought will lead to more drought, due to the fact that quite a few storms that form during the summer depend on soil moisture for them to grow.  With less moisture for the storms to feed off of, there will be less rainfall, ultimately making the drought worse.  My theory on what is causing this drought is a combination of the extremely warm winter (even though we had near normal snowfall, the water did not stay in the ground very long because it never froze for more than a couple of days.), the "hot" weather we had in March, and a virtually rainless spring.  There are some other long-term factors, such as the changing positions of the ocean currents during the El Nino phase of the Southern Oscillation, and the changing ocean temperatures, but they likely have less effect than the other factors involved.  Due to the persistence in the heat this spring, I am expecting yet another hot summer across the area, as upper level ridges have seemed to dominate the weather across the East and Central U.S. for large portions of the spring.  This will all lead into next winter's weather, which could once again feature above normal temperatures, but below normal precipitation.  That is too far out to accurately predict so I will not say anything else.
As for this week's weather, temperatures will likely soar into the lower 90's across the area, especially in the aforementioned dry areas.  Even with strong mixing in the boundary layer, southeast winds will transport 60+ degree dew points into the area, giving the air quite a humid feel compared to recent days.  By tomorrow, the front that I mentioned in yesterday's post will cross into the area, causing temperatures to cool slightly (probably to near 88-89 with less humidity).  I am not expecting thunderstorm development with this front (even with the instability in place), due to the fact that the "cap" in the mid-levels is quite strong, which limit any thunderstorm development.  Second, much of the upper level lift will exist to far north of the area to even break the cap for the storms.  By Saturday, that same front will surge back northward, causing temperatures to jump to near 93, along with dew points approaching the mid to upper 60's, making for very humid weather.  On Sunday, temperatures will reach their highest, with some areas (especially areas near extreme eastern Indiana and western Ohio, including Antwerp and Fort Wayne) reaching from 96-98 from time to time.  This will also occur along with humid conditions, so don't be surprised if the National Weather Service issues a heat advisory.  During this same time period, low temperatures will become very warm, with lows in the upper 60's and lower 70's.

This chart shows how far behind in rainfall we are for the year to date

Hot weather on the rise

Most of you will notice that temperatures will take a hike today, with highs being almost 10 degrees warmer than yesterday.  This will lead to increasing wind speeds (greater lapse rates and deeper mixing within the boundary layer) today, making for a rather comfortable day.  Tomorrow, moisture return flow (strong and deeper winds originating from the Gulf of Mexico which transport tropical air masses northward) will increase, causing even warmer temperatures and a significantly more moist air mass.  With this, I am expecting highs tomorrow approaching 90, probably leveling off in between 88-90 (depending on the depth of the mixing within the boundary layer).  By Friday, several computer models are persistent in driving a "cold" front into the area, bringing showers and thunderstorms to the area, along with cooler temperatures.  I do not believe this, even though the National Weather Service has started to accept this idea.  I do not believe this will be the case mainly because strengthening upper level ridging will act to push the front farther north and weaken it.  In my opinion, I do not expect much if any thunderstorm activity in the area, and if there is any, it will likely be west of Fort Wayne due to strong capping and weak subsidence over the area (though that shortwave may cause some upward motion over the area, leading to the possibility of destabilization of the atmosphere and thunderstorms.)  If the low levels are moist enough (short-range models are indicating that dew points are going to be in the low to mid 60's), an isolated shower or storm can not be ruled out.  As for highs on Friday, this will be a bit tricky, as some of the computer models are indicating temperatures dropping into the upper 70's (such as the GFS).  More than likely, it is showing this bias due to the fact that it may be over aggressive with the shortwave that will be passing to the northwest of the area, especially because the same shortwave is not very well-defined over the Intermountain West, embedded in the main trough.  I would forecast a less amplified shortwave than what the GFS and some other models are forecasting, and with upper level ridging, I expect that the surface front will quickly weaken, stall, and race back northward as the strong upper level ridge builds into the region, generally around the time frame of Friday Night.  I would expect Friday high temperatures near 90 if the front fails to stall in the area by late afternoon, with dew points surging to near 60 (this dew point surge may be a bit overdone, as the models tend to be too strong with moisture return flow, meaning that dew points are probably going to be a bit lower.)  By Saturday, there are some differences in regards to timing of the front pushing back northward, with the GFS being the slowest.  In my opinion, a faster push northward is the best option right now, especially given the strength of the upper level ridging that will be in place by Saturday.  With 850 millibar temperatures nearing 15-20 degrees Celsius, expect highs to reach the lower 90's (unless the front does not lift through the area until afternoon), with even more humid conditions present across the area (dew points reaching into the mid and upper 60's), which will make the air mass very uncomfortable (unlike last weekend, which featured a very dry air mass).  On Sunday, 850 millibar temperatures could reach from 22-25 degrees, indicating surface temperatures at least into the mid 90's (94-96) if not near 97 or even 98 in isolated areas.  This combined with dew points right near 70 throughout the day, will cause extreme instability and a very hot and humid day.  In fact, it could be so hot and humid that the National Weather Service is considering issuing a heat advisory on Sunday, and possibly into Monday.  On Monday, temperatures will be a bit cooler, with temperatures making it into the lower 90's under mostly sunny skies.  With mid-level temperatures cooling, we have a greater likelihood for thunderstorms, especially as the upper level trough passes to the northwest of the area, but I am not expecting much.  Tuesday, though, may be the day that brings us much-needed rain, as the upper level ridge breaks down, and gives way to much more zonal flow, which will allow for warm temperatures (low to mid 80's), but not to the extremes that we will see this weekend.

Warmth Continues...

As of  4 p.m. this afternoon, the official high temperature at Fort Wayne International Airport was 88 degrees (note: this will likely change as temperatures continued rising after 4 p.m.).  It is very likely that across the area, mainly west of Defiance, that many areas reached or exceeded 90.  In fact, most of the warmer temperatures were west of here, with some areas, such as Chicago, reaching into the lower 90's.  The reason for this well above normal warmth, is because of the incredibly dry ground.  In fact, it has been almost two weeks since some areas in the region even saw rain.  Dry ground combined with completely clear skies lead to large diurnal temperature swings, with low temperatures this morning near 50, and high temperatures in the upper 80's and lower 90's.  Also, a strong upper level ridge is currently located over us, which is basically a large bubble of relatively warm air in the upper atmosphere.  This "warm bubble" is causing downward motion over the area, which is causing the warm temperatures aloft to be carried to the surface, plus the added subsidence is causing adiabatic warming which also warms the surface.  With warmer lows tonight near 60, expect even warmer temperatures for tomorrow afternoon, with highs possibly reaching well into the 90's (91-93) in some localized areas.  With increasing moisture into the area, high temperatures may not reach that high tomorrow.  By Monday, a dying upper level system will reach the area, causing scattered showers and thunderstorms.  Because of the weak forcing associated with the system, and meager moisture in the lower atmosphere, do not expect much shower and thunderstorm activity in the area.  Because the cold front will be moving through, temperatures will be quite a bit cooler on Monday then on Sunday, with highs only reaching the lower 80's.  On Tuesday, the core of the upper level low will move over the area, bringing the chance for an isolated shower, but this is highly unlikely.  The cold core of the upper level low will cause much cooler temperatures on Tuesday, with a high near 73.  By Wednesday, the next upper level ridge will build into the region with yet another warming trend for Memorial Day weekend.  Wednesday's highs will peak in the upper 70's under partly cloudy skies.  By Thursday, temperatures will approach the mid 80's yet again, under sunny skies.  On Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, I am expecting temperatures to rise into the upper 80's and lower 90's, with temperatures possibly peaking in the mid 90's on Sunday and Monday.  This will have to be monitored in the future because this could be a sign the season's first heat wave could hit the area.

Fair weather through the weekend

With temperatures approaching the low to mid 70's this afternoon (west of Defiance anyway), along with plentiful sunshine, it has been one beautiful day.  The cold front that I was predicting on Tuesday did more "damage" than I thought it would, as brought temperatures tumbling down to the upper 60's yesterday, and the same anticyclone is bringing cooler weather to the area today.  Tonight, temperatures probably will not be as cool as last night, mainly because high and mid level clouds from a weak shortwave crossing the upper Mississippi Valley will keep temperatures from dropping nearly as fast.  Also, veering low level winds from the southeast and weak warm air advection will also be a caveat to lower temperatures.  By tomorrow, plentiful sunshine (possibly some puffy cumulus in the afternoon), upper level ridging and weak return flow, will cause temperatures to jump about 10 degrees from today, with temperatures ranging from the mid 70's near Toledo, to the lower 80's near Antwerp and Fort Wayne.  By Saturday, in response to a major trough entering the west coast, upper level height rises and ridging will allow for warmer 850 millibar temperatures, stronger mixing throughout the low levels, and thus even warmer temperatures.  In fact, I would not be surprised for some areas on Saturday to see temperatures as high as 87 or 88, especially west of Fort Wayne.  Saturday night lows will be much warmer than previous nights, with temperatures dropping only to near 60.  I expect pretty much the same on Sunday, with temperatures easily approaching the 90's under mostly sunny skies.  By Monday and Tuesday, a shortwave will approach from the plains, possibly bringing the chance for showers and thunderstorms, mainly on Tuesday.  Temperatures on both days look to range in the upper 70's and 80's.  In the long-range, there is a lot of discrepancy, but the ECMWF, which has been pretty consistent with its solutions of a ridge over most of the United States, is forecasting a rather strong upper level ridge to form over the Eastern and Central United States, and persist for several days.  It is forecasting 850 millibar temperatures to be in excess of 20 degrees Celsius by next Thursday (it is a week away so a lot can change by then!), which translates to surface temperatures in the 90's, which could mean our first heat wave may be on the way.  We'll just to have to wait and see, but it is a good bet that we see some hot weather in the near future, as the ground is incredibly dry and the pattern is very conducive to warm spells (as we have seen all winter long!).  Enjoy the nice weather!

Slighty Cooler Tomorrow

After such a beautiful day today, with temperatures near 85 (an impressive diurnal temperature range, 49 this morning to 85 in the afternoon) and incredibly low humidity, a weak cold front from Canada will invade the area, bringing the possibility of weak scattered showers, but more importantly temperatures back into the 70's for a few days.  This cold front diving southward in response to a high amplitude trough sitting in southeastern Canada.  This will send a bit of a reality check to the region, with temperatures only reaching the mid 70's tomorrow.  I am not expecting really any rain except for the possibility of a few sprinkles, as moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico is incredibly meager and any significant upper level forcing is too far north of here to produce anything of consequence.  This will likely mean a partly cloudy rather warm night with temperatures dropping into the mid 50's.  By tomorrow, cooler temperatures with make their way into the area with highs dropping near 73 or 74.  Much cooler temperatures tomorrow night could mean lows in the mid 40's, quite a bit cooler than in recent nights.  By Thursday, temperatures will begin making their recovery with highs back into the upper 70's underneath a very dry air mass.  For the rest of the weekend and the beginning of next week, strong upper level ridging will cause much warmer temperatures, with highs as warm as the upper 80's and lower 90's.  A lot of the models are tend to under do warm events like these, mainly because they cannot account for soil moisture very well.  When soils are incredibly dry and the air mass is also dry, temperatures tend to rise much faster and to higher temperatures as well.  Temperatures also tend to drop considerably at night, making for large diurnal temperatures ranges.  This means very hot temperatures for the weekend under mostly sunny skies as ridging continues to build.  After this, the forecast gets a little out of hand.  The GFS has a small amplitude wave moving through the Midwest on Monday and Tuesday, with ridging building back into the region after that.  To me, this seems like the most logical conclusion, as a rather strong trough will build onto the West Coast, causing an amplification of the Central and Eastern ridge.   After a couple of days of being in the upper 70's on Monday and Tuesday, expect temperatures to warm back into the mid to upper 80's, with continuing warmth possible.

Warm, dry weather pattern

For all the people who love summer-like weather, there is yet another batch of much above normal temperatures coming, with highs by the end of this week reaching into the 80's.  This will come on the heels of a long dry spell, which will likely last through the next week or so.  So far this month, we have only received 0.8 inches of rain, and with little or no rain in the next week and a half, this could end up as the second month in a row with below normal rainfall.  With the below normal rainfall and record warmth over the past several months, drought will likely ensue, with parts of the area already in the first category of drought status.  This could have huge implications for this summer's weather, with widespread dry ground over the Midwest leading to hotter daytime temperatures (dry ground heats up faster and longer than wet ground does).  As late spring and summer progresses, the large amount of heat radiated from the ground level will cause a deep layer of warm air to form, making it nearly impossible for cold fronts from Canada to penetrate into the Midwest.  Not only will this occur, but building warm air will cause higher pressure aloft, causing greater subsidence, clear skies, more sunshine, no rain, and higher temperatures which will all continue to cause warmer temperatures throughout the summer.  Obviously, this is an idealized process, with many complications which will act to counteract the warmer temperatures, such as isolated summer thunderstorms.  What I'm trying to say is that the warm and dry weather pattern of this spring will likely continue through the summer.  According to Accuweather, they are expecting a much different pattern.  They believe that this summer will hold above normal storms and rainfall for the area but normal temperatures.  Unless there is some kind of major pattern reversal, I do not see this happening in the near future, as blocking is characteristic of an El Nino pattern, which we are entering into.  Also I have found correlations with other years that had warm winters, warm and dry springs, and they have also had very warm and dry summers (the summer of 1955, one of Fort Wayne's hottest summers).  Otherwise, over the next week, due to dry soils and relatively little moist air entering the region, I do not see much rain nor cooler weather.  In fact, each day will see large diurnal temperature swings, which could mean lows in the lower 50's during the morning but temperatures in the mid to upper 80's and lower 90's by afternoon.  It is entirely possible that temperatures reach into the 90's by the beginning of next week.  Though, it is very hard to tell, as the long-range is very difficult to forecast.  If computer model forecasts are correct, then 850 millibar temperatures could approach the lower 20's degrees Celsius, which translates to surface temperatures in the lower 90's.  This pattern won't last forever, but it will likely last quite a while.  My forecast is that this type of pattern will continue throughout the summer months, bringing our area quickly into drought.  Before we hit the 80's though, expect temperatures in the upper 70's through Thursday, before they rise into the 80's.  Enjoy the beautiful weather this week!

Warm weather yet again

When it seems it can't get any better (80's in March, lots of sunshine), it just keeps getting better.  For example, today, it is expecting to be partly cloudy ahead of a cold front with temperatures rising into the mid 70's.  It isn't ideal, because of the chance for thunderstorms, but it is pretty nice, even compared to last May (last May was the wettest May on record.).  Looking over the week ahead, temperatures will be soaring into the upper 70's, especially by Wednesday, and then into the 80's by Friday.  Guidance continues to suggest that the surge of warmth will continue through the following week also.  It is possible that we will be hitting the 90's by the following week, which will be well above normal and possibly record-breaking.  Given dry conditions and plenty of sunshine, long-range forecasts will definitely have a cooler bias to them, which means that if they say upper 70's and lower 80's for the end of the week, expect mid 80's.  As for today's forecast, I am not that worried about it, because there is not a whole lot of upper-level forcing nor instability.  According to my analysis of a skew-T log P chart, instability could be high enough to produce scattered thunderstorms but nothing horrible or severe.  One caveat to this is the fact that we are located in the right entrance region of a jet streak, which would produce strong upward motion, aiding thunderstorm development.  But, due to the limited availability of moisture (dew points only in the low 50's), thunderstorms will not be widespread.  Expect tomorrow to be a cooler day, with cloudier skies ahead of a weak shortwave trough axis, with highs in the upper 60's and lower 70's.  By Monday, temperatures once again will be rising into the mid 70's under sunny skies.  I am also expecting the same for Tuesday through Thursday, with Friday showing a marked jump in temperatures into the lower 80's, due to upper level ridging aloft.  This will definitely be a very nice week of weather, just like the rest of spring 2012.

Nicer weather on its way

After a cold front moved through yesterday, cooler conditions began settling in the area, albeit still rather warm for this time of year.  This cold front is currently moving off to the east in Central Pennsylvania, pushing the warmth and humidity away from the area, but leaving us with a beautiful day to contend with.  The upper level ridge is pushing away from the area as a rather strong upper level shortwave or low pushes southeastward in Minnesota.  This upper level cold core low is causing the development of a numerous, but scattered showers and thunderstorms over Minnesota and Wisconsin due to the high lapse rates in the mid-levels.  As this upper level cold pool progagates towards the area, expect an increase in clouds tonight ahead of the storm system.  By tomorrow, the cold pool will cause temperatures to fall even further, with highs only in the mid 60's.  Even though temperatures will be in the mid 60's, a few thunderstorms could form due to the cold core nature of the system.  This event will not be as widespread nor as heavy as Monday's heavy rain event was, with only scattered showers and a few thunderstorms possible.  By Wednesday evening showers will continue and then cease overnight.  Over the next several days, I expect moderating temperatures and nicer weather to arise once again, with temperatures hitting the mid and possibly upper 70's by Saturday, with the chance for a few thunderstorms.

Stormy forecast for Tomorrow

After an absolutely gorgeous week of near-record breaking warm temperatures, things have finally started to get back to near normal, with temperatures back down into the 70's and much less humidity.  Before things get back to normal, a storm system will move towards the area, bringing with it the chance for showers and thunderstorms.  Right now, the main threat appears to hit the area from around 2 or 3 a.m. tonight until about noon tomorrow.  As for details, right now, there is quite a strong temperature and dew point gradient (difference in a weather variable over a given distance; strong dew point and temperature gradients often indicate strong frontal boundaries) across Northwest Ohio, with dew points in the 50's in Antwerp and towards Fort Wayne, and dew points in the 40's and 30's over Toledo, indicating quite a stable air mass across the area.  The higher dew points over Antwerp and Fort Wayne have moved into the area due to the approaching warm front, which is slowly easing its way into the area.  As for temperatures, here in Antwerp, temperatures are approaching the upper 70's while just to the west in Illinois, temperatures are soaring into the 90's with dew points in the lower 70's.  I am not expecting this kind of warmth here tomorrow, but if some sunshine can come out during the afternoon, temperatures could quickly make it into the lower 80's, which could heighten the potential for severe thunderstorms.  Due to the absence of large scale deep layer shear throughout the atmosphere tomorrow, storms will have a hard time organizing into large supercells.  This could mean multicell clusters with isolated severe weather will hit the area tomorrow, especially south of Route 6 and Napoleon.  IF the warm front lifts farther northward, instability could be a lot higher and thunderstorms a lot stronger by tomorrow evening.  As for tonight, as seen on current radar imagery, large thunderstorm clusters are developing in western Illinois, which will move slowly toward the area during the evening hours.  During the evening hours, high-resolution model guidance is suggesting that thunderstorms will become numerous and widespread by midnight, overspreading the area by about 2 a.m.  Heavy rain and gusty winds will be the main threat with these storms, with some of the storms closer to the warm front producing large hail.  These bands of rain could cause localized heavy rainfall in isolated areas, with general rainfall amounts just over a half an inch by noon tomorrow.  I am very uncertain with this forecast, as instability is very low over the area right now, which is causing thunderstorms to weaken considerably as they move toward the area.  As the low level and upper level warm front move over the area, instability will gradually increase, allowing thunderstorms to develop ahead of the them.  Back to Monday afternoon, instability should cause thunderstorms to form, but they will be fairly disorganized, unless the warm front lifts farther north past the area.  If the instability moves into our area, the thunderstorms that form will quickly become organized due to the better shear profiles over the area.  Even then, shear will not be that strong, which will hinder any tornado threat or long-lived thunderstorms.  It will be quite favorable for squall lines, which could move through by the early evening around 5 or 6 p.m.  Monday evening, a scattered thunderstorms will continue moving into the area, with a gradual decrease after 8 p.m.  The cold front moves through by Tuesday, as an upper level wave approaches the area from the northwest.  This upper level wave will produce little or no precipitation because of little moisture available.  Temperatures will continue their fall throughout the week, until rising slightly by the end of the week.

Storms possible this afternoon

After an unusually warm afternoon (in some areas), thunderstorms are erupting to the west and quickly moving eastward.  With building surface based instability and lingering deep layer shear across the area, areas mainly southeast of U.S. Highway 24 could receive severe weather this afternoon and evening.  Originally, I was not anticipating the warm front to move north of U.S. 6, but it did, and temperatures in Antwerp and surrounding areas have soared into the lower 80's, with dew points in the lower 60's.  With this unexpected surge of warmth and moisture, moderate instability has developed in areas south of U.S. 6.  This could pose a threat for severe weather to some parts of the area, as the Storm Prediction Center has placed parts of the area in a Slight Risk outlook.  They are expecting mainly damaging winds and possibly a few supercell thunderstorms.  Over the next few hours, storms will continue to become more widespread throughout the late afternoon and evening hours, with eventually all convection ending with a line of thunderstorms moving through by about 6:30 p.m.  Overnight, skies will begin to clear with temperatures falling into the mid-50's, as a weak cold front pushes through the area.  Tomorrow, partly cloudy skies will prevail with temperatures rising into the mid to upper 70's and possibly 80's, depending on the degree of cloud cover.  Humidity levels will be much lower tomorrow, so don't expect it to be as humid as today.  By Wednesday, temperatures will approach the upper 80's with high humidity levels returning, along with a slight chance for thunderstorms.

Drought possible. Record warmth for this week.

I have very bad news for those of you out there who are farmers.  Looking at the latest long-range forecast information and current weather information, I can see that a large chunk of the area may officially go into drought status for the first time since last summer.  One of the reasons for this is the incredibly dry April and March that we have seen this year.  In March, record warmth and lack of rain lead to the ground drying up, with any meager moisture leftover from the relatively snowless winter evaporating as incredibly warm air poured into the region.  In April, relatively mild air continued, but not to the extent as in March.  March may have been relatively dry, but April was incredibly dry with only 0.84 inches of precipitation since the beginning of April to the 30th.  Now, on a side note, we may see a few showers and thunderstorms before the month ends tomorrow, but I highly doubt we will see anything more than a half an inch.  Normally, April receives between 3.5 and 5 inches of rain.  Last April, in comparison, saw a near record of 5.44 inches of rain, leading to the wettest spring on record.  This spring, we are nearly 4 inches below normal, but temperatures are well above what they were last year.  As for the future in the next several months, climate models, the ones that were indicating record warmth during the past winter, are showing yet another dry and hot summer across the area, with most of the precipitation and storm systems impacting the southern United States.  In fact, this May originally was expected to be relatively cool and wet in most of the Northern United States, but now with the overall pattern shift from a dominant New England trough to a more dominant central plains ridge, I expect very warm conditions for a good part of May.  This leads me to this week's forecast.  Because of the development and eastward movement of a very strong upper level ridge, warm air will begin to surge northward by tonight and tomorrow, with temperatures jumping from the mid 60's today, to the low and middle 70's tomorrow.  On this initial wave of warm air (more technically high theta-e air), showers and thunderstorms will develop tonight and tomorrow, with the heaviest rain and pushing northwest of here.  It is possible that the warm front will lift past the area tomorrow (depending on the relative strength of the shortwave moving into the area.), bringing much warmer temperatures than originally forecasted, which could mean the possibility of stronger thunderstorms, and high temperatures in the mid to upper 70's or even 80's (this is highly unlikely at this point.)   

By Tuesday, lingering widespread showers and thunderstorms will taper off in the morning hours, possibly leading to clearing by afternoon.  This means that temperatures could rise into the upper 70's on Tuesday, depending on the degree of cloud cover.  By Wednesday, most thunderstorm will have cleared out, with only a slight chance for thunderstorms.  Both Wednesday and Thursday will be the muggiest and warmest days of the week with high temperatures in the mid 80's, along with dew points in the mid 60's.  On those days, model guidance still suggests the possibility of temperatures reaching much higher than what is currently forecasted.  In other words, it is possible that temperatures reach the upper 80's and into the 90's on Wednesday and Thursday.  On both of these days, nighttime lows will only fall into the mid 60's, making for warm and muggy nights (at least in comparison to normal).  By Friday, a cold front will approach from the west, bringing a renewed chance for showers and thunderstorms.  Temperatures on Friday will be slightly cooler than on Thursday, but it will still be fairly warm with highs in the upper 70's and lower 80's.  By Saturday, as the cold front moves through, temperatures will only cool into the mid 70's with sunny skies.  The cold front will become stationary in southern Indiana, possibly moving back northward as additional shortwaves move along the boundary, bringing the possibility of warm weather back into the picture by next week.

Overall Pattern changing rapidly

I am very sorry once again for not getting any articles or blog posts written, but from here on out, my school work should not give me any more problems, so expect nearly daily updates (hopefully).  As for the weather, as many of you have noticed, temperatures have been nearly thirty degrees cooler than they were in March, a huge reversal from what it was.  The bad news is that no significant warm ups are forecast until the end of this week into the weekend, when temperatures will finally begin to slide into the mid and upper 60's, possibly.  Computer models consistently have been hinting at a stubborn blocking pattern over Eastern Canada and the Eastern United States (the same pattern we would have needed during the winter to have a cold and snowy winter!).  That has been the case for quite a bit of early April and even into mid-April, but I highly doubt that the trough that is forecast over Eastern Canada will be as deep or as strong as the computer models are currently handling it, especially given the pattern building out West.  Also, the GFS has a known bias for being too weak with the trough/ridge pattern, especially in such a highly variable pattern such as this.  It keeps on trying to break down the ridge in the west much quicker than what other models are hinting at.  It still has the possibility of being correct, but with the strength of the longwave trough pushing into the ridge, I would expect it to keep its strength while moving eastward.  There is one caveat to this eastward movement.  The storm that is currently impacting the East as we speak, has become incredibly strong (the reason for the breezy conditions today.).  When such a storm system amplifies considerably in a relatively unstable environment such as over the ocean, it tends to strengthen rapidly.  When it strengthens rapidly, it causes the upper level trough to deepen at the same time.  This has caused a rather weak upper level wave to develop into a large and strong upper level low, that is about to close off.  This trough will slowly drift northward into eastern Canada.  As the trough stays put in Canada, it will send pieces of energy (shortwave troughs and vorticity lobes) around its periphery.  One of the stronger "pieces of energy" will move southward around the base of that trough as the ridge builds into the central plains.  This "piece of energy", with its associated height falls, will cause a cold front to descend from Canada. (By the way, this cold front should affect the area by Wednesday Night and Thursday).  There is much disagreement on whether a wave from the West will interact with this shortwave to cause a much stronger storm system, but for the time being, it will produce little in the way of violent weather, but a small chance for showers or a rumble of thunder as the front passes through.  After this wave moves through, in my thinking, the upper level flow will deamplifiy considerably as the eastern Canadian trough moves into the North Atlantic.  At the same time, a strong trough will descend into the West, causing reamplification of the upper level flow pattern especially in the last day or so of April (by the 30th or May 1st).  When this happens, a ridge will build into the Central plains, which COULD be the precursor to a significant warm-up by the beginning of May.  This is what the climatic variables are showing but in such a wild pattern as this, the climate variables may not be completely correct.  As for our temperatures, they will range from near normal to below normal over the next several days, with a gradual warm-up by the weekend.

New Forecast: Rain and Warmth on the way

I am very sorry for not posting any forecasts since I've been back, but I have been very busy and had other things to attend to.  Besides that, an interesting forecast period looks to be on the horizon, as a much warmer pattern will be building back into the United States.  The reason for the warmer pattern is because of yet another major trough to push into the Gulf of Alaska and the Western United States, causing a break down in the pattern over the United States, leading to a more zonal, fast flow aloft with embedded shortwaves.  In my opinion, this will eventually lead to the development of another staunch ridge in the Central plains after about a week or two's time.  In the mean time, I am expecting rain and thunderstorms to move back into the forecast by tonight and tomorrow.  If you've been outside on this beautiful warm spring day, you will have noticed high clouds moving into the region from the west.  This indicates that a storm system is approaching.  In fact, a large cluster of thunderstorms is approaching the area from Illinois.  This region of heavy rain and thunderstorms should move toward the area during the next several hours, with rain likely starting after midnight.  By tomorrow, rain and thunderstorms will continue through about noon before tapering off to mostly cloudy skies.  Temperatures will eventually rise into the lower 70's, but it sure won't be that nice of a day.  By Sunday, mostly sunny skies will prevail with temperatures possibly hitting 81-83 in the area, a very comfortable set up before more thunderstorms move into the area Sunday night, ahead of a cold front, which will eventually lead to a cooler air and an end to the warmth.

Forecast Update.

I can tell you this.  I have never, in my entire life, have seen such an incredible run of record-breaking warmth that we have just seen.  It was so incredible, it broke thousands of daily and all-time records across the United States.  Even here, after this run of warmth, we end up with a new all-time record high temperature for March, a new record for the number of consecutive record high days.  The old record was 7 days in a row of record high days in July of 1936, one of the hottest summers on record in the United States.  Not only that, but the average temperature over the last 10 days has been over 55 degrees (the average of the highs and lows).  Normal average temperatures for this time of year is 36 degrees.  This is nearly 20 degrees above normal, and will likely break many more records.  If temperatures continue to stay well above normal for the month of March, I expect that this will end up as the warmest March on record.  This March's average temperature is currently 53 degrees, which is incredible to say the least.  The old record is 48.6 set in 1910.  So for the forecast, I expect showers and even a few thunderstorms to continue impacting the area through the night and possibly into tomorrow morning.  Rainfall totals will generally range near a half inch, but greater rainfall totals will exist where thunderstorms train over certain areas.  Other than that, expect much cooler temperatures into the week, with temperatures into the lower 60's by Monday.  There will be another slight warm up, but not near as large as the one we've been in.  This could bring temperatures as high as the lower and mid 70's by Wednesday, but with the threat for rain and a few thunderstorms.  By Thursday, temperatures will cool but only into the mid 60's.  It is possible that this up and down pattern will continue, with well above normal warmth continuing well into April.  This will likely be the last blog post for a few days, until I will have a chance to access the Internet, since I will be in Florida until April 9th, so I will not be keeping you updated very much but I will try my best.  See ya everyone.

Records shattered everywhere.

After yesterday's high temperature of a "scorching" 83 degrees, we have made it six consecutive record high temperatures.  If today and Wednesday both break the record highs (which is highly likely), then it will be the longest streak of record high temperatures ever recorded at Fort Wayne.  The last time that we had this many consecutive record highs was in 1936!  Another thing, yesterday was our 7th consecutive day above 70 degrees.  This makes it the third longest streak of 70 degree weather ever recorded in March.  If the next several days make it above 70, we shall break the long standing record of 10 consecutive days of 70+ temperatures, which was set in 1910.  We owe the intensity and duration of this warmth to an incredibly strong upper level ridge of high pressure, which extends from the Gulf of Mexico to the Arctic Circle in Canada.  This has allowed warm, moist tropical air to flood the Central and Eastern portions of the country with record breaking warmth.  This tropical air has spread even well into Canada, with some places in Canada reaching the 70's, at a time of year when they are supposed to have an average high in the middle 30's!  Because of how far above normal we are during this "heat" wave, I expect that unless colder air filters into the area and drops the average temperature, we are well on our way to seeing the warmest March on record.  Besides these records that I have just listed, many other records were broken at Fort Wayne, with probably many more records to be broken over the next several days.  In fact, if cloud cover is not an issue, our high temperatures will be within striking distance of breaking March's all-time record high of 86.  Forecast highs for today and tomorrow are both near 85, and the temperatures happen to be warmer than this (which seems to be the trend), we may actually all-time record highs broken, especially at Fort Wayne.  Keep reading my blog for further updates.

Record-breaking Summer-like Warmth to Persist

After a "cooler" weekend, with highs only in the mid to upper 70's, and with scattered showers and thunderstorms.  In fact, compared to Thursday and Wednesday, these days were not near as far above average.  This is all about to change, as an incredible jet streak that has remained over the Pacific Ocean for the last week, is finally moving into the Western trough, which is the source of the stormy weather out west.  As the jet streak moves into the trough, it will cause an incredible deepening of the storm system, so deep in fact that the entire trough will break away from the jet stream in the form of a cut-off low.  Before this happens, the extreme deepening of the trough will cause the ridge over the east will amplify considerably, causing yet another surge of extremely warm air into the region.  In fact, this next surge of warm air will be even greater than the first surge back on last Wednesday, when temperatures first hit the lower 80's.  Tomorrow, I expect that after a relatively warm morning in the lower 60's, along with dense fog in areas, temperatures will warm considerably into the low and possibly even mid-80's, depending on the degree of cloud cover, which is all dependent on thunderstorm development in the afternoon tomorrow.  Either way, it is likely that temperatures will reach into the lower 80's, along with ample sunshine and warm southerly winds.  By Tuesday, temperatures have an even greater chance of hitting of the middle 80's, though mid level clouds could keep temperatures in check in the lower 80's.  GFSx model guidance suggests that the incredibly warm temperatures in the 80's will continue into Wednesday, with mid to upper 70's likely on Thursday as the chance of thunderstorms moves in.  By Friday, the closed-low will likely affect the region with widespread showers and thunderstorms, along with temperatures dropping into the upper 60's.  Here's where discrepancies come between model data.  The GFS is suggesting that the storm system will stall much longer in the Central Plains, which will keep warm air flowing into the region through Friday, keeping high temperatures in the middle 70's.  Amazingly, this is coming from a model that is very progressive, which means that normally it would have this system moving out a lot faster than it actually would.  If a progressive computer model is showing a much slower solution than all of the other computer models, more than likely it is the model that is likely to be the most accurate, especially in these types of situations.  Either way, I will keep a close eye on this, because it could mean a greater chance for severe weather come Friday or possibly Saturday.  Keep on checking this blog for further updates.

Short Term Forecast

Over the last few hours, the atmosphere has destabilized over the last few hours, with rather high instability building over parts of the area.  Current RUC analysis images from 3 p.m., show the axis of highest instability located in Northeast Indiana, along with parts of extreme western Ohio. (note: areas west of Defiance are relatively stable, and not near as warm as areas east of Defiance, due to morning rain and thunderstorms.)  CAPE values or instability values are over 3000 J/kg which indicates a strongly unstable environment, conducive for thunderstorms.  According to the latest satellite imagery, convection was developing over western Indiana, with a large cumulus field also located over the area.  Farther south, large areas of widespread severe thunderstorms were occurring in southern Indiana and along the Ohio River.  I expect over the next few hours that thunderstorms will begin to develop especially east of a line from South Bend to Indianapolis.  More organized thunderstorms will be present east of Defiance, due to stronger deep layer wind shear present, even though instability is not as high as around here.  With the rather moist environment that is also present, I expect that these thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall, especially in areas where thunderstorms train (meaning that they move over the same areas over and over).  According to the Storm Prediction Center, large hail is the primary threat from any isolated severe thunderstorm, but it is possible that they also produce gusty winds.  The thunderstorm threat will gradually die out by about 11 or 12 tonight.  Tomorrow, a similar situation will occur, but with more available moisture.  In fact, according to computer models, these situations will be very similar each day until Sunday, when the ridge will be too strong to allow thunderstorms to develop.  The ridge will amplify considerably by Tuesday, with even warmer temperatures than what we've been seeing.  As for right now, we are not sure when this warmth will end, primarily due to the fact that computer models keep changing the story.  I will keep you informed about this record-breaking heat over the next several days.

Summer-like Conditions Overspreading the region.

During the overnight hours, due to the high degree of warmth located in the area, an unstable atmosphere has remained overnight, allowing for the development of scattered strong thunderstorms.  It does look like that over the next few hours, these storms will continue popping up, affecting many areas.  These storms will be capable of small hail, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall.  Be on your guard this morning.  In other news, temperatures will once again soar to record levels by this afternoon, with high temperatures near 80 degrees.  Upper 70's and lower 80's look to be prevalent through at least the middle of next week.  Stay tuned for further updates.