While I am still waiting on the rest of the 12z guidance to come out to get a full update, I think we have enough of a consensus this morning from the 00z guidance to have more confidence in the winter-storm solution. So I will release a brief update here and then another more detailed post later this afternoon detailing several potential factors in regards to the track of the system and its development.
First, several things need to be pointed out.
1.) Most, if not all of the 00z guidance came into agreement with the ECMWF [or at least close to it]. There are, however, still some disparity between the different tracks of the system which needs to be watched for the placement of the axis of heaviest snow.
2.) There is still large disagreement on final snow totals. While the global models seem "hell-bent" on producing 8-12" amounts [especially the GFS and ECMWF], the longer-range mesoscale models are showing much less snowfall [although the latest NAM was more bullish with snow amounts; however it hasn't been all that consistent]. This is largely due to the progressive nature of the storm on the NAM. However, I've already noticed some questionable features on the NAM's forecast that makes me doubt its weaker solution.
3.) Snow-ratios should begin around 11:1 on Saturday-night given the mini "heat-wave" that we will be seeing [temperatures in the upper 20's/lower 30's], with snow-ratios gradually increasing throughout the day Sunday as the Arctic front pushes through the area [possibly ratios of 16:1 or 17:1 during the heaviest snowfall]. This could enhance snow totals if we can see stronger banding and/or greater moisture transport into the system.
4.) Blowing and drifting snow will be a major concern, especially after the snow has ended. As the low bombs out over the NE and Southern Canada, winds should increase to the 20-25 mph range with higher gusts likely. This will lead to dangerous and nearly impassable roadways in the hours following the end of the storm. On top of that, temperatures will plummet into the -10's Sunday-night, which will prevent any melting of the snow on roadways. It will make it nearly impossible for snow-trucks to clear roads.
5.) Extreme cold will follow the winter-storm. Wind chills will likely drop into the -30's and -40's starting Sunday night and lasting through Tuesday, especially in the morning hours. Temperatures are not likely to make it above zero from Sunday-night through early Wednesday morning.
UPDATE: The NWS has issued a Winter-Storm Watch for the area, calling for 6-12" of snow areawide, with the potential for heavier snowfall along and southeast of U.S. 24.
First, several things need to be pointed out.
1.) Most, if not all of the 00z guidance came into agreement with the ECMWF [or at least close to it]. There are, however, still some disparity between the different tracks of the system which needs to be watched for the placement of the axis of heaviest snow.
2.) There is still large disagreement on final snow totals. While the global models seem "hell-bent" on producing 8-12" amounts [especially the GFS and ECMWF], the longer-range mesoscale models are showing much less snowfall [although the latest NAM was more bullish with snow amounts; however it hasn't been all that consistent]. This is largely due to the progressive nature of the storm on the NAM. However, I've already noticed some questionable features on the NAM's forecast that makes me doubt its weaker solution.
3.) Snow-ratios should begin around 11:1 on Saturday-night given the mini "heat-wave" that we will be seeing [temperatures in the upper 20's/lower 30's], with snow-ratios gradually increasing throughout the day Sunday as the Arctic front pushes through the area [possibly ratios of 16:1 or 17:1 during the heaviest snowfall]. This could enhance snow totals if we can see stronger banding and/or greater moisture transport into the system.
4.) Blowing and drifting snow will be a major concern, especially after the snow has ended. As the low bombs out over the NE and Southern Canada, winds should increase to the 20-25 mph range with higher gusts likely. This will lead to dangerous and nearly impassable roadways in the hours following the end of the storm. On top of that, temperatures will plummet into the -10's Sunday-night, which will prevent any melting of the snow on roadways. It will make it nearly impossible for snow-trucks to clear roads.
5.) Extreme cold will follow the winter-storm. Wind chills will likely drop into the -30's and -40's starting Sunday night and lasting through Tuesday, especially in the morning hours. Temperatures are not likely to make it above zero from Sunday-night through early Wednesday morning.
UPDATE: The NWS has issued a Winter-Storm Watch for the area, calling for 6-12" of snow areawide, with the potential for heavier snowfall along and southeast of U.S. 24.
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