***POTENTIAL WINTER-STORM***
Since the holidays are almost over, I'll be making more weather-related posts here during the next few weeks. I do not expect to be absent and I should be able to provide you with the most up-to-date weather forecasts now.
But for now, it appears that we have a potential winter-storm on our hands for the mid-week period. Right now, models have come to a general consensus on the formation and track of a low-pressure system from S. Colorado through the Southern Plains and into S. Ohio from Wednesday through Thursday. This same primary low will then weaken as an intense secondary-low develops off of the East Coast. Overall, depending upon the track of the storm, the intensity of the initial shortwave and the timing of secondary development, we could be seeing a major winter-storm, stretching from Iowa and Illinois through N. Indiana and Ohio and into the Northeast/New England. Due to the bombing nature of the secondary-low [due to CISK and its interaction with the baroclinic zone generated by the Gulf stream], an intense winter-storm is expected for areas farther east.
Several factors need to be monitored for snow accumulations with this storm-system.
1.) Moisture- Generally, Colorado-lows are not moisture-starved and have ample-access to Gulf-moisture. At this time, moisture does not appear to be a concern that will hamper snow accumulations.
2.) Snow-ratios/depth of cold air- Unlike the last winter storm [December 14th], this winter-storm is likely to bring much higher ratios. 850 MB temps during the height of the storm are only likely to be around -7 to -9 C and surface temperatures are likely to be in the upper-teens. This in combination with a deep DGZ layer [Dendritic Growth Zone] will likely produce snow-ratios on the order of 15:1 to as much as 18:1. However, this needs to be ironed out over the next few days, as it is notoriously difficult for models to get thermal profiles correct even one day out. However, in general, it is highly likely that snow-ratios will be higher for this event.
3.) Intensity/track of the primary-low: This is likely to be the trickiest detail to forecast as of now, and it will likely be the most significant factor in determining who receives the most snow from this system.
At this point, the NWS and WPC are both leaning towards the ECMWF solution, which shows a stronger primary low tracking into S. Ohio as a highly amplified short-wave induces cyclogenesis. The 00z run late last night and early this morning continued the trend of a more amplified primary short-wave, which leads me to believe that the primary low will be stronger. However, given that the shortwave appears to be more amplified, the primary-low is likely to track farther south than what the GFS and other models are currently predicting. IF this is the case, then I can definitely see higher snowfall amounts for the area. Because at this point, the GFS and long-range NAM both have the low-pressure system tracking farther north and bringing the heavier snow totals to areas in S. and Central Michigan.
Right now, the ECMWF appears to have a better handle on the system, but this needs to be watched. If the ECMWF solution verifies, its likely that most of us see 4-8"+, with the heavier snow totals falling north of U.S. 24. And because of this, the NWS has issued a Special Weather Statement for the entire area, detailing the potential for a winter-storm. I will continue to monitor this event over the next few days.
I will have a map out sometime this week [likely before Wednesday].
Since the holidays are almost over, I'll be making more weather-related posts here during the next few weeks. I do not expect to be absent and I should be able to provide you with the most up-to-date weather forecasts now.
But for now, it appears that we have a potential winter-storm on our hands for the mid-week period. Right now, models have come to a general consensus on the formation and track of a low-pressure system from S. Colorado through the Southern Plains and into S. Ohio from Wednesday through Thursday. This same primary low will then weaken as an intense secondary-low develops off of the East Coast. Overall, depending upon the track of the storm, the intensity of the initial shortwave and the timing of secondary development, we could be seeing a major winter-storm, stretching from Iowa and Illinois through N. Indiana and Ohio and into the Northeast/New England. Due to the bombing nature of the secondary-low [due to CISK and its interaction with the baroclinic zone generated by the Gulf stream], an intense winter-storm is expected for areas farther east.
Several factors need to be monitored for snow accumulations with this storm-system.
1.) Moisture- Generally, Colorado-lows are not moisture-starved and have ample-access to Gulf-moisture. At this time, moisture does not appear to be a concern that will hamper snow accumulations.
2.) Snow-ratios/depth of cold air- Unlike the last winter storm [December 14th], this winter-storm is likely to bring much higher ratios. 850 MB temps during the height of the storm are only likely to be around -7 to -9 C and surface temperatures are likely to be in the upper-teens. This in combination with a deep DGZ layer [Dendritic Growth Zone] will likely produce snow-ratios on the order of 15:1 to as much as 18:1. However, this needs to be ironed out over the next few days, as it is notoriously difficult for models to get thermal profiles correct even one day out. However, in general, it is highly likely that snow-ratios will be higher for this event.
3.) Intensity/track of the primary-low: This is likely to be the trickiest detail to forecast as of now, and it will likely be the most significant factor in determining who receives the most snow from this system.
At this point, the NWS and WPC are both leaning towards the ECMWF solution, which shows a stronger primary low tracking into S. Ohio as a highly amplified short-wave induces cyclogenesis. The 00z run late last night and early this morning continued the trend of a more amplified primary short-wave, which leads me to believe that the primary low will be stronger. However, given that the shortwave appears to be more amplified, the primary-low is likely to track farther south than what the GFS and other models are currently predicting. IF this is the case, then I can definitely see higher snowfall amounts for the area. Because at this point, the GFS and long-range NAM both have the low-pressure system tracking farther north and bringing the heavier snow totals to areas in S. and Central Michigan.
Right now, the ECMWF appears to have a better handle on the system, but this needs to be watched. If the ECMWF solution verifies, its likely that most of us see 4-8"+, with the heavier snow totals falling north of U.S. 24. And because of this, the NWS has issued a Special Weather Statement for the entire area, detailing the potential for a winter-storm. I will continue to monitor this event over the next few days.
I will have a map out sometime this week [likely before Wednesday].
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