Okay, we have a bit more information on the upcoming winter-storm this Sunday. But first, a brief summary of today's storm.
As originally anticipated several days ago, snow totals ranged from 6-10" across the region, with the heaviest snow amounts across lower Michigan due to the clipper system on Tuesday-Tuesday night. However, because of the fluffy nature of the snow, there will be a lot of blowing and drifting this afternoon. And this won't even be the worst of it; with the decoupling of the boundary-layer tonight and under clearing skies, it appears that many areas will see temperatures rapidly falling below-zero tonight. If light winds hold on longer, we could see wind-chills as low as -15 to -20, which approaches dangerous criteria.
However, for the weekend-storm, we have a different scenario. As of now, model consensus seems to indicate that most of the area, especially across the east and southeast [east and southeast of Fort Wayne that is], will see a significant snowfall event. While the exact track of the storm and its intensity is still in question, confidence is growing in a major snowstorm for the area, especially if the ECMWF and CMC verify. Given that the 12z GFS and the 12z NAM are outliers compared to most guidance, it appears that the forecast will favor the ECMWF and CMC solutions right now. And both models are currently indicating snowfall amounts in the 10-12" range, based off of 10:1 ratios. And if the storm develops as quickly as guidance is currently indicating, it appears that we may see reduced visibilities and near blizzard conditions. However, this is not set in stone yet, and there is still some model variability [hence why the NWS will not issue any advisories, watches or warnings until Friday night or Saturday for this event] and hence some uncertainty. There is still the question of phasing and storm-track, which will definitely affect how much snow we get from the system.
As of now, I do not really have an anticipated range for snow accumulations, as there is still too much uncertainty, but I would venture to guess that 8-12" accumulations are not out of the question, but I'm willing to bet that a safer guess is going to be around 4-7" [but likely a lot more if the stronger-storm scenario verifies].
HOWEVER, what we do have more confidence in is the record-breaking cold that will follow the storm. Temperatures are likely to reach their maximums on early Monday morning before dipping below zero, which means early morning temperatures in the lower single digits. IF the cold-front blasts through as currently predicted, temperatures late Monday afternoon will be below-zero with gusty winds and possible lake-effect. This will cause wind-chills around -25 [thus the possibility of wind-chill warnings]. However, the coldest weather is expected Monday-night through Tuesday-night. High temperatures on Tuesday are expected to reach a maximum around -5 to -8 [according to WPC forecasted highs]. Lows Monday-night will dip down to about -16 to -19 across the area. By Wednesday, however, we should see temperatures rebounding to the upper single-digits [still well-below normal] and lower teens before another clipper-system moves through with the potential for more snowfall.
I will have more updates on this potentially significant event tomorrow morning.
As originally anticipated several days ago, snow totals ranged from 6-10" across the region, with the heaviest snow amounts across lower Michigan due to the clipper system on Tuesday-Tuesday night. However, because of the fluffy nature of the snow, there will be a lot of blowing and drifting this afternoon. And this won't even be the worst of it; with the decoupling of the boundary-layer tonight and under clearing skies, it appears that many areas will see temperatures rapidly falling below-zero tonight. If light winds hold on longer, we could see wind-chills as low as -15 to -20, which approaches dangerous criteria.
However, for the weekend-storm, we have a different scenario. As of now, model consensus seems to indicate that most of the area, especially across the east and southeast [east and southeast of Fort Wayne that is], will see a significant snowfall event. While the exact track of the storm and its intensity is still in question, confidence is growing in a major snowstorm for the area, especially if the ECMWF and CMC verify. Given that the 12z GFS and the 12z NAM are outliers compared to most guidance, it appears that the forecast will favor the ECMWF and CMC solutions right now. And both models are currently indicating snowfall amounts in the 10-12" range, based off of 10:1 ratios. And if the storm develops as quickly as guidance is currently indicating, it appears that we may see reduced visibilities and near blizzard conditions. However, this is not set in stone yet, and there is still some model variability [hence why the NWS will not issue any advisories, watches or warnings until Friday night or Saturday for this event] and hence some uncertainty. There is still the question of phasing and storm-track, which will definitely affect how much snow we get from the system.
As of now, I do not really have an anticipated range for snow accumulations, as there is still too much uncertainty, but I would venture to guess that 8-12" accumulations are not out of the question, but I'm willing to bet that a safer guess is going to be around 4-7" [but likely a lot more if the stronger-storm scenario verifies].
HOWEVER, what we do have more confidence in is the record-breaking cold that will follow the storm. Temperatures are likely to reach their maximums on early Monday morning before dipping below zero, which means early morning temperatures in the lower single digits. IF the cold-front blasts through as currently predicted, temperatures late Monday afternoon will be below-zero with gusty winds and possible lake-effect. This will cause wind-chills around -25 [thus the possibility of wind-chill warnings]. However, the coldest weather is expected Monday-night through Tuesday-night. High temperatures on Tuesday are expected to reach a maximum around -5 to -8 [according to WPC forecasted highs]. Lows Monday-night will dip down to about -16 to -19 across the area. By Wednesday, however, we should see temperatures rebounding to the upper single-digits [still well-below normal] and lower teens before another clipper-system moves through with the potential for more snowfall.
I will have more updates on this potentially significant event tomorrow morning.
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