WX Analysis

***CURRENT WX ANALYSIS***

Even though the weather over the next few days won't necessarily be "exciting", I'm still going to be watching out for the potential of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms during the day Sunday, due to the influence of a strong and amplified short-wave trough.

A number of factors will be in play during this event, including but not limited to:

High moisture content in the atmosphere [PWATs will approach 1.9 IN, which is about the 99th percentile for late September.].

A strong, driving cold front, with strong temperature advection behind it [even though the temperature difference behind the cold front will only drop about 10-12 degrees or so].

Weak-moderate upper level dynamics and jet core circulations. This will all be dependent upon the eventual track of the short-wave trough, as well as how quickly the storm system de-amplifies. [See image below].

Weak mid-level instability [which will ultimately lead to the possibility of thunder and thunderstorms].

Because of the weaker levels of instability, I do not expect to see much in the way of thunderstorm activity, although it does remain to be a possibility.

As for the upcoming pattern, some very significant changes could possibly occur, and it will all be dependent upon the movement of the incredible Alaskan vortex [which can be seen on the image below]. If the Alaskan vortex continues to shift eastward and retains its shape, we have a decent chance at seeing a highly amplified pattern. If the Alaskan vortex only breaks down into a series of smaller waves, we will certainly see a more *active* pattern, but it will flatten out the pattern into a more zonal, and definitely less active pattern eventually. Considering the model variability on this issue, it remains to be seen what exactly will happen. Continue to follow my page for further details in upcoming days.