After looking at the current analysis, and the short-range forecasts, I think I have a better idea about how intense this brief burst of heat will be.
First, let's look at the analysis maps:
Clearly, the ridge has already built into the East, and has become firmly established ahead of a strengthening shortwave in the Northern Plains. Along with this, an intense "nose" of hot, dry air from the West is surging north and eastward across the Central Plains, and into the region. By tomorrow, 850 MB temperatures are expected to approach 22-24 degrees Celsius.
Given the above factors, its becoming clearer that dry, sunny conditions, as well as gusty winds will allow deep mixing within the boundary layer. Because of this deep mixing, probably to the 825-775 MB levels, hot, dry air from the mid-levels will mix to the surface, allowing temperatures to soar to even higher levels. In fact, because of this, the NAM seems to indicate that high temperatures approaching the UPPER 90's and lower 100's ARE possible if we can get enough mixing to occur in the low-levels.
Mixing dry adiabatically from 800 MB yields a surface temperature of about 37-40 degrees CELSIUS! If this were to occur, our surface temperatures would approach 100 in many areas. However, this may not occur if mid-level temperatures cool off, and/or PBL moisture increases during the daytime. Either way, its going to be a hot and "steamy" day tomorrow.
As for the conditions for the rest of the week, more details will be coming tomorrow.
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