While other people are going gung-ho on winter outlooks.. I decided I would post something on the upcoming storm system.
Take a look at the 12z GFS and 12z ECMWF: They are coming into
agreement on a rather large trough pivoting into the Midwest and
amplifying by late this week and early weekend. A strong cold front will
plow through the Midwest [regardless of how amplified the surface
reflection becomes], causing sharp temperature drops across the front.
This could quite possibly be the first major storm system of the season
if everything pans out correctly. So far, the strength of the upper
level wave and the surface low has been increasing between runs, so I
wouldn't doubt that we see at least a slight similar trend to continue.
Even without an amplified surface trough, both models are still
predicting a strong cold front to move through the Midwest and
eventually the East.
The key to predicting this system will most likely be dependent upon which model is over-developing/under-developing
the system. At this time, I would say that a consensus of both the 12z
GFS and 12z ECMWF with some uncertainty is our best bet. I think we
should keep an eye on this system.
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