Current Weather Analysis and the Upcoming Week

After several days of cooler than normal temperatures, temperatures will begin to return back to normal, and even above normal by this week. In fact, it appears we may have a quick burst of "heat", with temperatures possibly hitting the upper 80's and the lower 90's. Not only this, but moist, tropical air will accompany this surge of warmth, and most likely cause scattered showers and thunderstorms.

But currently, we have a very weak upper level pattern in place, that is barely defined, and very zonal/progressive. A weak upper level low is currently in place over the mid-Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, diverting moist flow from the lower Great Lakes and into the East [and subsequently around the ridge in the Central Plains]. As soon as this weak upper level feature breaks down, that is when we should begin to see the humidity rise again.

The MOS forecasts are indicating that, specifically at Fort Wayne, temperatures will gradually rise this week from the low-mid 80's to the upper 80's, although there is obvious disagreement between the two models on this issue.

Here's what will happen:

The weak upper level "height depression" will begin to weaken early this week, allowing the broad [and massive] Western ridge to shift east. By Tuesday and Wednesday, the 588 DM line should be well east of the area [which is usually when its known that a "heat dome" is over us], and allow a surge of warmth and moisture into the area. Temperatures will rise into the mid-upper 80's and dew points into the upper 60's.

By the end of the week, temperatures should continue to rise into the upper 80's/possible lower 90's as the massive high pressure system shifts offshore. Dew points will continue rising as well.

After this week, it is uncertain of what will happen but it appears that ridging may in fact build back into the Midwest and East the following week. It appears that we may have a very warm end to the summer before Fall begins.