Current Wx Analysis; Mundane Forecast

After a period of warm, very humid weather last week, things are settling down again, into a much cooler and drier pattern than in recent days. Temperatures will remain in the mid-70's to low 80's, under mostly sunny skies.

As for the current analysis, we currently have a large 500 MB ridge over the Central Plains, with geopotential heights approaching 594-596 DM heights at the core of the ridge.

And here is the corresponding surface chart:

Current surface maps suggest that a large surface high is slowing moving eastward across the Midwest and lower Great Lakes. This will provide a cool and dry surface air mass for the next few days, leading to chilly mornings, and nice, warm afternoons.

As for a brief look at the medium range, it appears that this pattern will continue through the end of the week before ridging attempts to build back into the region. This will allow for a STORMIER pattern to finally set up across the United States. And when I say "stormier" I am not referring to thunderstorm activity, but rather the overall movement and placement of upper level disturbances, which will finally lead to some increase in activity in our weather pattern. We will continue to see more upper level disturbances as upper level flow increases, and shortwaves become more prevalent. As this occurs, we need to watch for the potential of late season severe weather episodes, due to upper level jet dynamics, surface low development and moderate instability. I will continue to watch this new pattern as it unfolds, but it could speak volumes for what will happen later this fall, particularly in November. Because if it unfolds the way that we are currently expecting it to, we could be in for a much more active winter than in the past two seasons. In fact, this is also best reflected by current SST anomalies in the Pacific, the MJO cycle, and the long-range PDO cycle.