After yesterday's blog post on the "potential" for heat in the medium and long-range, I'd like to issue an addendum to that post, summarizing what the latest models have changed in regards to the time period in question; 120-168 hours out.
The latest models have shifted westward in regards to the placement of the upper level ridge. Yesterday, the 00z and 12z runs of the ECMWF were indicating that an amplified upper-level ridge would shift eastward with time, shifting the heat dome eastward into the region.
Today's model runs have shifted the dome westward, with the area on the periphery of a sharp [yet very "shallow"] trough over the East and Appalachians. This will cause a sharper temperature gradient between temperatures in the 90's to our West and 70's/80's to our east. What's very likely to happen here is that the area has temperatures "juggling" between 85-90, and then possibly a few days with temperatures exceeding 90. It will all depend upon the axis of the upper-level ridge, which at this time appears to set itself up across the Northern Plains.
Here's a look at the ensemble consensus and the ECMWF from the WPC:
For the next few days, the upper level height pattern will flatten, allowing clouds and the upper-level cold pool to clear out of the area, as well as allow for warmer temperatures. In fact, within the next four days or so, we could hit the lower 90's [if enough insolation is realized].
On the otherhand, a shortwave trough dropping out of Canada will amplify the ridge, and cause it to retrograde. It's entirely plausible that with the very moist and unstable air mass in place that we see numerous showers and thunderstorms from this shortwave. Even so.. It's influence will be minimal on the area and for a short period of time. After it shifts east, the ridge will attempt to edge eastward, but very slowly. It will not be until the next shortwave trough shifts out of the Western trough, and causes the ridge to amplify that we get a chance with the heat. If this does not happen, then its not likely at all that we see any kind of marginal "heat" [90+].
I'll continue to monitor the situation for now.. More details will either come early tomorrow morning, or it'll have to wait a week. I'm going to be gone for most of next week and the following weekend, so don't expect any updates.
Have a great evening!
The latest models have shifted westward in regards to the placement of the upper level ridge. Yesterday, the 00z and 12z runs of the ECMWF were indicating that an amplified upper-level ridge would shift eastward with time, shifting the heat dome eastward into the region.
Today's model runs have shifted the dome westward, with the area on the periphery of a sharp [yet very "shallow"] trough over the East and Appalachians. This will cause a sharper temperature gradient between temperatures in the 90's to our West and 70's/80's to our east. What's very likely to happen here is that the area has temperatures "juggling" between 85-90, and then possibly a few days with temperatures exceeding 90. It will all depend upon the axis of the upper-level ridge, which at this time appears to set itself up across the Northern Plains.
Here's a look at the ensemble consensus and the ECMWF from the WPC:
On the otherhand, a shortwave trough dropping out of Canada will amplify the ridge, and cause it to retrograde. It's entirely plausible that with the very moist and unstable air mass in place that we see numerous showers and thunderstorms from this shortwave. Even so.. It's influence will be minimal on the area and for a short period of time. After it shifts east, the ridge will attempt to edge eastward, but very slowly. It will not be until the next shortwave trough shifts out of the Western trough, and causes the ridge to amplify that we get a chance with the heat. If this does not happen, then its not likely at all that we see any kind of marginal "heat" [90+].
I'll continue to monitor the situation for now.. More details will either come early tomorrow morning, or it'll have to wait a week. I'm going to be gone for most of next week and the following weekend, so don't expect any updates.
Have a great evening!
No comments:
Post a Comment