The beginning of summer has know passed, and we are entering into the middle period of summer. Even so.. We have seen very little heat, but longer periods of cooler, wetter weather. This summer/late spring has been quite unusual in this regard.. In fact, June ended as one of the wettest Junes on record, with nearly six inches of rain.
Even so.. It has been rather cool ever since a strong cold front pushed through. In the wake of the cold front, a closed upper level trough formed, and closed off from the main flow over Canada, allowing a highly anomalous pattern for this time of year. It was something that was VERY unusual.
So what is likely to happen over the next several weeks? Well, models have remained fairly consistent in bringing in a warmer, but more zonal pattern to the United States. For the beginning of next week, both the ECMWF and GFS indicate that a strong ridge will form over the East Coast [594 dm+], allowing 850 temps to soar passed 18-20 degrees Celsius. This indicates that surface temperatures will likely exceed 85-90 a few times next week. But at the same time, due to an incredibly saturated ground, very high dew points are likely, with dew points possibly exceeding 75 next week. This allow for the development of daily showers and thunderstorms as well.
After this, the models show somewhat of a "flattening" of the Eastern ridge, which will give way to a pattern more favorable for MCS thunderstorm complexes. I also believe that with this flattening, the Midwest/Rockies ridge may surge eastward once again, and allow for a period of well above normal temperatures [temperatures possibly exceeding 95 for a few days]. If this does not happen, I would expect the continuation of a warm, and very humid pattern, with the possibility of numerous thunderstorms.
More details about the medium and long-range coming tomorrow...
Even so.. It has been rather cool ever since a strong cold front pushed through. In the wake of the cold front, a closed upper level trough formed, and closed off from the main flow over Canada, allowing a highly anomalous pattern for this time of year. It was something that was VERY unusual.
So what is likely to happen over the next several weeks? Well, models have remained fairly consistent in bringing in a warmer, but more zonal pattern to the United States. For the beginning of next week, both the ECMWF and GFS indicate that a strong ridge will form over the East Coast [594 dm+], allowing 850 temps to soar passed 18-20 degrees Celsius. This indicates that surface temperatures will likely exceed 85-90 a few times next week. But at the same time, due to an incredibly saturated ground, very high dew points are likely, with dew points possibly exceeding 75 next week. This allow for the development of daily showers and thunderstorms as well.
After this, the models show somewhat of a "flattening" of the Eastern ridge, which will give way to a pattern more favorable for MCS thunderstorm complexes. I also believe that with this flattening, the Midwest/Rockies ridge may surge eastward once again, and allow for a period of well above normal temperatures [temperatures possibly exceeding 95 for a few days]. If this does not happen, I would expect the continuation of a warm, and very humid pattern, with the possibility of numerous thunderstorms.
More details about the medium and long-range coming tomorrow...
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