The NWS has issued a winter weather advisory for most, if not all of the forecast region. They are expecting ice totals to accumulate to near 0.1 inches. I'm expecting higher icing totals, as I believe it'll take longer for the warm air mass to begin mixing to the surface, and thus, temperatures will remain below freezing for longer, possibly until after midnight. Even when temperatures go above freezing, freezing rain will persist for several more hours due to the frozen nature of the ground. Thus, icing amounts could be as high as 0.25 inches, especially in light of the recent NAM (which indicates icing amounts of up to or over 0.3 inches, especially north of Route 24). My forecast is calling for 0.1 to 0.25 inches of ice area wide, with some sleet and snow accumulation also possible. By early Monday morning though (around 5 a.m. or so), freezing rain to change over to rain as temperatures rise into the upper 30's. Light to moderate rain showers will persist throughout the day Monday and into the night hours. Rain will continue to persist through Tuesday as another wave of low pressure develops.
Wednesday is when the forecast gets tricky, and rather inconsistent with the models. The GFS indicates that another surface wave of low pressure will develop along the frontal boundary in Eastern Oklahoma and move northeast, rapidly developing into a strong low pressure system. If this were to occur, I would expect another day of highs in the middle 50's on Wednesday. The NAM, on the otherhand indicates that the second wave of low pressure will be weak, and won't cause a secondary warm-up, but will allow the cold front to slide through with heavy rain and a few rumbles of thunder Tuesday night.
Models are more consistent on the arrival of a cold wave for Thursday and Friday. In fact, temperatures could rival that of what we saw during the past week. This time around though, it is likely that we see a more substantial wave of lake effect snow, possibly extending far inland. After that, a snow event is possible for next Saturday ahead of a strong clipper system. Other than that, have a great evening!
Wednesday is when the forecast gets tricky, and rather inconsistent with the models. The GFS indicates that another surface wave of low pressure will develop along the frontal boundary in Eastern Oklahoma and move northeast, rapidly developing into a strong low pressure system. If this were to occur, I would expect another day of highs in the middle 50's on Wednesday. The NAM, on the otherhand indicates that the second wave of low pressure will be weak, and won't cause a secondary warm-up, but will allow the cold front to slide through with heavy rain and a few rumbles of thunder Tuesday night.
Models are more consistent on the arrival of a cold wave for Thursday and Friday. In fact, temperatures could rival that of what we saw during the past week. This time around though, it is likely that we see a more substantial wave of lake effect snow, possibly extending far inland. After that, a snow event is possible for next Saturday ahead of a strong clipper system. Other than that, have a great evening!
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