All right.. After a solid 1-3 inches of snow
falling across the area today (of the fluffy variety), there seems to be
several more light snow events on the way to the area over the next 72
hours. The first one will occur from late tonight into
tomorrow across many areas. This will mainly be due to LES and a weak
wave of warm-air advection. This will produce scattered snow showers
tomorrow, likely accumulating up to an inch in some areas tomorrow, with
heavier snow amounts in the lake effect region. By Sunday night, snow
will "rev" up again with some lake enhancement, which will generally
produce light totals across the region. By late Sunday night, the next
clipper system will be approaching the region, bringing us a solid 2-4
inches, possibly up to 5 inches by late Monday night. This clipper
system will be the most significant of this train of clippers. So, this
is the one I will focus on.
Thermal profiles seem to suggest that ratios will be rather high for this event once again. The DGZ (which is the dendritic growth zone, where conditions are maximized for the most efficient snow crystal, dendrites) will be rather thick (approaching 200 mb, which is ideal for heavier snowfall), with max. omega also in this layer (upward vertical velocities look to be at least slightly stronger than today's event.). And then factoring in modest low-level WAA and moisture advection, we seem to have a decent event on our hands. The only negative factors seem to be a lack of higher moisture, as well as a stronger storm system (clippers generally are weak and very dry). But because of the positive factors, it seems to me that ratios could approach 20:1, and possible 30:1 over NW Ohio. With forecasted liquid precipitation amounts for this next event at 0.2 to 0.3 areawide, it seems that we will have a solid 2-5 inch snow event, and if things become even more favorable a 4-6 inch snow event (but that'll probably happen in the lake effect regions). Regardless, this snow event is something to be watched, especially because it is a clipper, which usually "surprise" the area with heavier snowfall. I'll keep my eye on this as well, and update you tomorrow on any changes.
Thermal profiles seem to suggest that ratios will be rather high for this event once again. The DGZ (which is the dendritic growth zone, where conditions are maximized for the most efficient snow crystal, dendrites) will be rather thick (approaching 200 mb, which is ideal for heavier snowfall), with max. omega also in this layer (upward vertical velocities look to be at least slightly stronger than today's event.). And then factoring in modest low-level WAA and moisture advection, we seem to have a decent event on our hands. The only negative factors seem to be a lack of higher moisture, as well as a stronger storm system (clippers generally are weak and very dry). But because of the positive factors, it seems to me that ratios could approach 20:1, and possible 30:1 over NW Ohio. With forecasted liquid precipitation amounts for this next event at 0.2 to 0.3 areawide, it seems that we will have a solid 2-5 inch snow event, and if things become even more favorable a 4-6 inch snow event (but that'll probably happen in the lake effect regions). Regardless, this snow event is something to be watched, especially because it is a clipper, which usually "surprise" the area with heavier snowfall. I'll keep my eye on this as well, and update you tomorrow on any changes.
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