Cloud cover will overspread the area once
again tonight, with light snow spreading into the region by early
tomorrow morning, possibly as early as 4 a.m. Light to moderate snow
will continue through the early to mid afternoon hours, with the
possibility of 1-3 inches by the end of the day. After the main snow
bands pass through, lake effect will develop and likely impact quite a
few areas for most of Friday night and Saturday, possibly accumulating
another inch.
As for tomorrow's main event, there are some discrepancies in snowfall amounts and precipitation amounts that models are forecasting. In the 12z NAM forecast, a good portion of the area will likely receive up to 0.2 inches of precipitation, and combined with 20:1 snow ratios (equating to a very fluffy snowfall) would produce up to four inches of snow across the area. The problem with this is that the 18z run is now forecasting about 0.1 to 0.15 inches of precipitation, which would translate to 2-3 inches of snowfall. For now, I would go conservative with this event, especially due to low level dry air at the onset of this event. I will stick with a conservative amount of 1-2 inches.
As for early next week a low pressure system will traverse the Plains from eastern Colorado into the Great Lakes region, dragging a strong cold front through the region as well.. This will likely bring a bout of showers and thunderstorms to the area on Tuesday and Tuesday night. As for Sunday night and Monday, the warm front will begin to pass through the area, bringing warmer air, and the potential for sleet and freezing rain. At this point, it is rather uncertain how much freezing rain and sleet will fall on the area Monday morning and afternoon, but it could be significant, especially if this system ends up drawing quite a bit of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. If the low level air mass continues to trend colder for Sunday night, we may be in for a bit of snowfall as well before the sleet and freezing rain arrive. Regardless, we could have a rather dangerous commute on our hands Monday morning. While I am not expecting a major ice storm (although it is possible), any amount of ice will make things hazardous. More updates coming soon.
As for tomorrow's main event, there are some discrepancies in snowfall amounts and precipitation amounts that models are forecasting. In the 12z NAM forecast, a good portion of the area will likely receive up to 0.2 inches of precipitation, and combined with 20:1 snow ratios (equating to a very fluffy snowfall) would produce up to four inches of snow across the area. The problem with this is that the 18z run is now forecasting about 0.1 to 0.15 inches of precipitation, which would translate to 2-3 inches of snowfall. For now, I would go conservative with this event, especially due to low level dry air at the onset of this event. I will stick with a conservative amount of 1-2 inches.
As for early next week a low pressure system will traverse the Plains from eastern Colorado into the Great Lakes region, dragging a strong cold front through the region as well.. This will likely bring a bout of showers and thunderstorms to the area on Tuesday and Tuesday night. As for Sunday night and Monday, the warm front will begin to pass through the area, bringing warmer air, and the potential for sleet and freezing rain. At this point, it is rather uncertain how much freezing rain and sleet will fall on the area Monday morning and afternoon, but it could be significant, especially if this system ends up drawing quite a bit of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. If the low level air mass continues to trend colder for Sunday night, we may be in for a bit of snowfall as well before the sleet and freezing rain arrive. Regardless, we could have a rather dangerous commute on our hands Monday morning. While I am not expecting a major ice storm (although it is possible), any amount of ice will make things hazardous. More updates coming soon.
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