There are a few things I'll discuss this evening with regards to this weekend's weather, and early next week:
First item on the agenda is today's event. Most of the area saw just under an inch of snow, with higher amounts east of Defiance. The storm really did "underperform". One of the major reasons for this (and something I hinted at in my blog post yesterday) is due to the fact that dry air was incredibly strong in the low and mid levels. It was so dry, in fact, that relative humidity levels in the 850 millibar layer were in between 1-10%! That is incredibly dry, and a lot to overcome for only a light snow event. In fact, I was even impressed that the area saw as much as we did see. The lower snowfall totals could have a bigger impact on the weather conditions for early next week as well.
For the weekend. expect periods of light snow showers, especially W of NW Ohio, which will allow for a bit more of an accumulation. For far Western and Northern Ohio, as well as Northeast Indiana, expect an inch or less of lake effect this weekend. Closer to the lake, expect several inches of snow.
Sunday night into Monday looks to get interesting, in regards to wintry precipitation and possible icing. At the current time, it looks like a period of icing is possible. The latest NAM even hints at the potential for several hours of sleet, freezing rain and snow. Right now, it looks like temperatures will be cold enough for a period of moderate snowfall late Sunday afternoon, which will evolve into sleet, and eventually freezing rain by early Monday morning. Snowfall accumulations will likely be near or under one inch, with little or no sleet accumulation. Freezing rain accumulations will be slightly harder to pinpoint, but if I had to make an educated guess, it looks like we have the potential to see over 0.10 inches of ice (which is fairly significant to driving, especially on colder surfaces). This could reek havoc on driving conditions early Monday morning. Farther north, especially in Southern and Central Michigan, there is the potential for a significant ice storm, with over a 0.3 inches of freezing rain accumulation possible north of the Indiana state-line. This will all likely change, but if you live in Michigan, I would pay attention for the possibility of a significant ice storm.
As for Tuesday and Wednesday, we could be seeing very warm, spring-like conditions, with temperatures well into the 50's (GFS indicates temperatures in the 60's possible, but given the cold ground, this isn't all that likely). Periods of heavier rain and possibly thunderstorms will be likely during the same period before the cold front slides through late Wednesday, ushering much colder weather again. By late week, the area will be back in the deep freeze, with the potential for Lake effect and clippers to bring us light accumulating snow.
First item on the agenda is today's event. Most of the area saw just under an inch of snow, with higher amounts east of Defiance. The storm really did "underperform". One of the major reasons for this (and something I hinted at in my blog post yesterday) is due to the fact that dry air was incredibly strong in the low and mid levels. It was so dry, in fact, that relative humidity levels in the 850 millibar layer were in between 1-10%! That is incredibly dry, and a lot to overcome for only a light snow event. In fact, I was even impressed that the area saw as much as we did see. The lower snowfall totals could have a bigger impact on the weather conditions for early next week as well.
For the weekend. expect periods of light snow showers, especially W of NW Ohio, which will allow for a bit more of an accumulation. For far Western and Northern Ohio, as well as Northeast Indiana, expect an inch or less of lake effect this weekend. Closer to the lake, expect several inches of snow.
Sunday night into Monday looks to get interesting, in regards to wintry precipitation and possible icing. At the current time, it looks like a period of icing is possible. The latest NAM even hints at the potential for several hours of sleet, freezing rain and snow. Right now, it looks like temperatures will be cold enough for a period of moderate snowfall late Sunday afternoon, which will evolve into sleet, and eventually freezing rain by early Monday morning. Snowfall accumulations will likely be near or under one inch, with little or no sleet accumulation. Freezing rain accumulations will be slightly harder to pinpoint, but if I had to make an educated guess, it looks like we have the potential to see over 0.10 inches of ice (which is fairly significant to driving, especially on colder surfaces). This could reek havoc on driving conditions early Monday morning. Farther north, especially in Southern and Central Michigan, there is the potential for a significant ice storm, with over a 0.3 inches of freezing rain accumulation possible north of the Indiana state-line. This will all likely change, but if you live in Michigan, I would pay attention for the possibility of a significant ice storm.
As for Tuesday and Wednesday, we could be seeing very warm, spring-like conditions, with temperatures well into the 50's (GFS indicates temperatures in the 60's possible, but given the cold ground, this isn't all that likely). Periods of heavier rain and possibly thunderstorms will be likely during the same period before the cold front slides through late Wednesday, ushering much colder weather again. By late week, the area will be back in the deep freeze, with the potential for Lake effect and clippers to bring us light accumulating snow.
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