The coldest and worst Arctic outbreak of the season is set to hit by early Sunday, and continuing through at least Wednesday. In fact, this Arctic wave could be one of the coldest since January 2009 and January 1994. It will bring high temperatures down to near 10 on both Monday and Tuesday, and it will also bring lows down to near 0 for both Monday and Tuesday night. The main reason that it won't be significantly below zero is the fact that we have seen a lack of snow, and snow cover for that matter. Eventually though, it looks like we will see a return of a winter pattern after a warm-up by the end of next week. But that will be elaborated upon towards the end of the article.
The above image is from today's 12z run of the ECMWF ensembles. As you can see, 850 millibar temperatures will approach, and drop below -23 degrees Celsius across the area next week. Climatologically, temperatures at this level of below -20 usually produces very significant cold, and if model biases are accounted for, true high temperatures will likely be colder than what is suggested by models at the time, especially if we have accumulating snowfall on Saturday and Sunday night. Other than that, its likely that temperatures fall into the lower teens and upper single digits across the area both Monday and Tuesday. By Wednesday, temperatures will approach about 16 or 17, before rising into the lower 30's on Thursday. Thursday looks to get slightly interesting in regards to frozen precipitation, as the surface is likely to be below freezing, and the mid levels are likely to be near or above freezing. This could promote freezing rain and sleet with the approaching warm front. While it doesn't exactly look significant in terms of total precipitation, it could allow for some significant icing, especially if high temperatures trend cooler.
As for the long range forecast, it is rather uncertain what happens now, but I can honestly say that we may not actually have winter again this year. We are currently below normal in snowfall, well above normal in temperatures, and even below normal in regards to precipitation. BUT, there is still a significant chance that February becomes snowier than normal. This fact can especially be attested to due to the prevailing nature of the Southeast ridge. I don't believe that any significant blocking ever sets up over the North Atlantic (though it will likely be east-based when it does), which will keep the main trough axis in the Midwest. I am rather confident that this will set up a much snowier, wetter pattern, though it may continue to be near normal temperature wise.
The above image is from today's 12z run of the ECMWF ensembles. As you can see, 850 millibar temperatures will approach, and drop below -23 degrees Celsius across the area next week. Climatologically, temperatures at this level of below -20 usually produces very significant cold, and if model biases are accounted for, true high temperatures will likely be colder than what is suggested by models at the time, especially if we have accumulating snowfall on Saturday and Sunday night. Other than that, its likely that temperatures fall into the lower teens and upper single digits across the area both Monday and Tuesday. By Wednesday, temperatures will approach about 16 or 17, before rising into the lower 30's on Thursday. Thursday looks to get slightly interesting in regards to frozen precipitation, as the surface is likely to be below freezing, and the mid levels are likely to be near or above freezing. This could promote freezing rain and sleet with the approaching warm front. While it doesn't exactly look significant in terms of total precipitation, it could allow for some significant icing, especially if high temperatures trend cooler.
As for the long range forecast, it is rather uncertain what happens now, but I can honestly say that we may not actually have winter again this year. We are currently below normal in snowfall, well above normal in temperatures, and even below normal in regards to precipitation. BUT, there is still a significant chance that February becomes snowier than normal. This fact can especially be attested to due to the prevailing nature of the Southeast ridge. I don't believe that any significant blocking ever sets up over the North Atlantic (though it will likely be east-based when it does), which will keep the main trough axis in the Midwest. I am rather confident that this will set up a much snowier, wetter pattern, though it may continue to be near normal temperature wise.
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