By now, most of you are probably tired of the extreme weather we have been experiencing so far this fall. From extremely high winds and heavy rain, to chilly, freezing nights. We've had days where it was nearly 80 and the next day, it was in the 40's.
Well.. I'm here to announce that yet again, another extreme weather pattern is coming. This one looks to be quite violent too. This time it will be quite different from what we've usually seen this fall. The new pattern involves a tropical cyclone, a large West Coast trough, and unusually warm conditions over the North Atlantic.
Now to explain what's going on. Over the weekend, the trough that brought the chilly weather Thursday and Friday has moved off to the East over Maritime Canada. In the wake of this trough, a major warm up will ensue. Upper level ridging will build into the area, resulting in temperatures approaching 80 by midweek, under mostly sunny skies. Thursday night and Friday, the western trough splits, sending a shortwave eastward, which will deepen rapidly, cause the development of a large surface storm, and send a cold front eastward, approaching the area. This cold front will slide through the area, with some post-frontal rain.. Mainly a few showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Friday looks fairly dry, but cooler, under mostly cloudy skies with highs in the upper 50's. This is where everything gets interesting.. Depending on the timing of a deepening upper level trough, an incredibly strong storm system will affect the East Coast. This storm will not be ordinary in anyway.. In fact, it will likely be a hybrid storm of sorts. The surface cyclone that will develop in response to the upper level trough will phase with a tropical cyclone that will be strengthening along the west coast of Florida. The strengthening trough will likely draw the storm northward. Here's the problem, at this time, nothing is set in stone of when this storm will likely hit the region. In fact, some of the models are having the storm stall out along the East Coast and move northwest towards Michigan! And some of them are bringing the storm out to sea after Sunday. Looking at the 12z GFS, it is expecting the entire storm to impact the region with some gusty winds, and possibly a rain/snow mix (but the latest runs are suggesting that it is moving towards a warmer solution). The 12z CMC and ECMWF are both expecting a rapidly deepening storm (this is what the NWS expects), with very cold air wrapping around the southwest side of the storm (where we are going to be at), and they are both expecting the storm to make landfall on the East Coast and travel up the Great Lakes. Most likely, the storm should hit around the Sunday-Monday-Tuesday timeframe (I don't agree with the NWS's forecast of the storm impacting us Saturday night, that is way too early for this tropical system to develop). If the ECMWF and CMC are correct, expect rather cold temperatures for Saturday-through at least Tuesday. Highs will likely only make it as high as the middle 40's. Another interesting thing that both models are forecasting is high winds. The ECMWF is forecasting wind speeds of over 60 mph! Again, you have to remember that this is a hybrid tropical/extratropical cyclone, so not only will it bring cold air, but also high winds.
The one interesting thing that I saw on the ECMWF model, and NWS forecast discussions, is the possibility of ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL from this system. In fact, some models are forecasting several inches of it. This is something that I will have to monitor, because it seems as if a wind-blown, heavy wet snow could be likely by next Sunday or Monday. Even though the air behind the system will be rather cold, it won't be cold enough to support snow during the day. The snow will likely occur during the night hours.
In any case, this could be a dangerous storm, not only for this area, but for most of the East Coast (due to the size of the storm, and its hurricane force wind speeds.) I will continue monitoring it throughout the week.
Well.. I'm here to announce that yet again, another extreme weather pattern is coming. This one looks to be quite violent too. This time it will be quite different from what we've usually seen this fall. The new pattern involves a tropical cyclone, a large West Coast trough, and unusually warm conditions over the North Atlantic.
Now to explain what's going on. Over the weekend, the trough that brought the chilly weather Thursday and Friday has moved off to the East over Maritime Canada. In the wake of this trough, a major warm up will ensue. Upper level ridging will build into the area, resulting in temperatures approaching 80 by midweek, under mostly sunny skies. Thursday night and Friday, the western trough splits, sending a shortwave eastward, which will deepen rapidly, cause the development of a large surface storm, and send a cold front eastward, approaching the area. This cold front will slide through the area, with some post-frontal rain.. Mainly a few showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Friday looks fairly dry, but cooler, under mostly cloudy skies with highs in the upper 50's. This is where everything gets interesting.. Depending on the timing of a deepening upper level trough, an incredibly strong storm system will affect the East Coast. This storm will not be ordinary in anyway.. In fact, it will likely be a hybrid storm of sorts. The surface cyclone that will develop in response to the upper level trough will phase with a tropical cyclone that will be strengthening along the west coast of Florida. The strengthening trough will likely draw the storm northward. Here's the problem, at this time, nothing is set in stone of when this storm will likely hit the region. In fact, some of the models are having the storm stall out along the East Coast and move northwest towards Michigan! And some of them are bringing the storm out to sea after Sunday. Looking at the 12z GFS, it is expecting the entire storm to impact the region with some gusty winds, and possibly a rain/snow mix (but the latest runs are suggesting that it is moving towards a warmer solution). The 12z CMC and ECMWF are both expecting a rapidly deepening storm (this is what the NWS expects), with very cold air wrapping around the southwest side of the storm (where we are going to be at), and they are both expecting the storm to make landfall on the East Coast and travel up the Great Lakes. Most likely, the storm should hit around the Sunday-Monday-Tuesday timeframe (I don't agree with the NWS's forecast of the storm impacting us Saturday night, that is way too early for this tropical system to develop). If the ECMWF and CMC are correct, expect rather cold temperatures for Saturday-through at least Tuesday. Highs will likely only make it as high as the middle 40's. Another interesting thing that both models are forecasting is high winds. The ECMWF is forecasting wind speeds of over 60 mph! Again, you have to remember that this is a hybrid tropical/extratropical cyclone, so not only will it bring cold air, but also high winds.
The one interesting thing that I saw on the ECMWF model, and NWS forecast discussions, is the possibility of ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL from this system. In fact, some models are forecasting several inches of it. This is something that I will have to monitor, because it seems as if a wind-blown, heavy wet snow could be likely by next Sunday or Monday. Even though the air behind the system will be rather cold, it won't be cold enough to support snow during the day. The snow will likely occur during the night hours.
In any case, this could be a dangerous storm, not only for this area, but for most of the East Coast (due to the size of the storm, and its hurricane force wind speeds.) I will continue monitoring it throughout the week.
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| This model forecast clearly depicts a very strong storm system in the East. |
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