After a rather depressing few runs the last few days (in terms of a big storm for parts of the East), ALL of the major global models, and even regional models are beginning to agree on the track, and even the intensity of this hurricane/hybrid storm. I am NO longer considering a solution that sends the storm out to sea, as this is very unreasonable given the current weather pattern.
In fact, the models have trended nearly 2000 miles west of the original storm tracks since yesterday. This is a MAJOR improvement over the last past several model runs. With this in mind, I expect a continuing westward trend until about Friday, when the models should begin to agree on the general storm track. Right now, the ensembles are even more reasonable with this storm, putting it much farther west than even the operational runs.
With all of this talk of the models, here is the reasoning and set up for this likely major and potentially devastating storm system.
Currently, and as we speak, Hurricane Sandy is rapidly intensifying in the Caribbean Sea, just south of Cuba. Just yesterday, it was named Sandy, so as you can see, this is a HUGE jump in intensity. Satellite imagery shows a well-developed eye forming in the center of the storm, along with a "stadium" like eye, usually indicative of rapid strengthening. I would not be surprised in the least bit if Sandy becomes a major hurricane before hitting Cuba tomorrow. Given the current slow storm movement, this seems extremely likely.
Another factor that will likely be in play is a giant West Coast long wave trough. A strong ridge will begin to push this trough out of the West, sending a cold front through our area Thursday night and Friday, along with widespread post-frontal rain, making for a rather gloomy day Friday. It is VERY important to track the strength of the trough, and its movement, as this will determine the strength and track of the hybrid storm once all of these come together.
A third and final factor in this "superstorm" of sorts is a mega North Atlantic blocking pattern. This ridge will get completely in the way of this storm's progress north. My theory is that it will have only one way to go once it gets "locked" into the upper level trough (previously mentioned), and that is straight west and a direct hit on the East Coast. The strength and position of the strongest blocking will determine the path of the storm as well.
Here's what I believe will happen: The hurricane will move due north through the Bahamas, maintaining hurricane status throughout (or just slightly below hurricane status). Once it re-emerges into the Gulf stream region east of Florida, it will likely strengthen, not only due to warmer waters, but because it will begin to "phase" with the upper level trough, providing energy and sustaining the storm. Depending on the degree of phasing (which at this time I believe will be strong), the now hybrid Sandy will continue moving north, and once it reaches around the Chesapeake Bay, it will make a likely sharp turn west, making landfall on the New Jersey coast. The storm system will continue to rapidly strengthen as it transitions to a baroclinic storm, and the upper level system will guide it west. Here's the problem for our area. A few models and ensembles are indicating that the storm will move far enough west to hit our area with very strong winds, and quite possibly SNOW. This is not set in stone in the least bit, but this is one of the more likely solutions. If the storm does move far enough west, we could have some adverse impacts from the storm, ranging from precipitation and wind.
At this point, I'm going to continue to watch. The most consistent and probably most accurate models are so far the NOGAPS and ECMWF. The GFS has not been consistent and is now considering a storm that moves out to sea and doesn't even affect the East Coast. The bottomline is this: The East Coast, if impacted by this storm, could be devastated, with widespread flooding and wind damage likely.
I'll continue to update the blog regarding forecasts on this storm.
In fact, the models have trended nearly 2000 miles west of the original storm tracks since yesterday. This is a MAJOR improvement over the last past several model runs. With this in mind, I expect a continuing westward trend until about Friday, when the models should begin to agree on the general storm track. Right now, the ensembles are even more reasonable with this storm, putting it much farther west than even the operational runs.
With all of this talk of the models, here is the reasoning and set up for this likely major and potentially devastating storm system.
Currently, and as we speak, Hurricane Sandy is rapidly intensifying in the Caribbean Sea, just south of Cuba. Just yesterday, it was named Sandy, so as you can see, this is a HUGE jump in intensity. Satellite imagery shows a well-developed eye forming in the center of the storm, along with a "stadium" like eye, usually indicative of rapid strengthening. I would not be surprised in the least bit if Sandy becomes a major hurricane before hitting Cuba tomorrow. Given the current slow storm movement, this seems extremely likely.
Another factor that will likely be in play is a giant West Coast long wave trough. A strong ridge will begin to push this trough out of the West, sending a cold front through our area Thursday night and Friday, along with widespread post-frontal rain, making for a rather gloomy day Friday. It is VERY important to track the strength of the trough, and its movement, as this will determine the strength and track of the hybrid storm once all of these come together.
A third and final factor in this "superstorm" of sorts is a mega North Atlantic blocking pattern. This ridge will get completely in the way of this storm's progress north. My theory is that it will have only one way to go once it gets "locked" into the upper level trough (previously mentioned), and that is straight west and a direct hit on the East Coast. The strength and position of the strongest blocking will determine the path of the storm as well.
Here's what I believe will happen: The hurricane will move due north through the Bahamas, maintaining hurricane status throughout (or just slightly below hurricane status). Once it re-emerges into the Gulf stream region east of Florida, it will likely strengthen, not only due to warmer waters, but because it will begin to "phase" with the upper level trough, providing energy and sustaining the storm. Depending on the degree of phasing (which at this time I believe will be strong), the now hybrid Sandy will continue moving north, and once it reaches around the Chesapeake Bay, it will make a likely sharp turn west, making landfall on the New Jersey coast. The storm system will continue to rapidly strengthen as it transitions to a baroclinic storm, and the upper level system will guide it west. Here's the problem for our area. A few models and ensembles are indicating that the storm will move far enough west to hit our area with very strong winds, and quite possibly SNOW. This is not set in stone in the least bit, but this is one of the more likely solutions. If the storm does move far enough west, we could have some adverse impacts from the storm, ranging from precipitation and wind.
At this point, I'm going to continue to watch. The most consistent and probably most accurate models are so far the NOGAPS and ECMWF. The GFS has not been consistent and is now considering a storm that moves out to sea and doesn't even affect the East Coast. The bottomline is this: The East Coast, if impacted by this storm, could be devastated, with widespread flooding and wind damage likely.
I'll continue to update the blog regarding forecasts on this storm.
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