I will have to review more data for the upcoming winter.. But I should be finished by next weekend. I will also publish the forecast in the paper.
As for what my preliminary thoughts are.. Based on the past winters, I expect that December could end up rather warm or just slightly above normal temperature wise, with near or slightly above normal precipitation (given an active southern jet stream that could be slightly farther north than on average.).. By January, the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation), could drastically change after taking a brief dip into positive territory, and taking a sharp dip into the negative index values. I'm basing this off of the fact that in recent years, the NAO has been drastically changing and to near opposite ends of the spectrum over a time period of a few months... Take for instance this past summer and spring, we had one of the lowest values of the NAO on record. I believe this to be in part influenced by one of the lowest solar activity periods in the records. What could happen is that it will likely drop again this winter, leading to a much colder end to the winter season. By February, temperatures will likely remain cold...
This is only preliminary, and if El Nino decides to strengthen rapidly, all of these ideas will be null and void. I expect several updates on the winter forecast this fall.
As for what my preliminary thoughts are.. Based on the past winters, I expect that December could end up rather warm or just slightly above normal temperature wise, with near or slightly above normal precipitation (given an active southern jet stream that could be slightly farther north than on average.).. By January, the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation), could drastically change after taking a brief dip into positive territory, and taking a sharp dip into the negative index values. I'm basing this off of the fact that in recent years, the NAO has been drastically changing and to near opposite ends of the spectrum over a time period of a few months... Take for instance this past summer and spring, we had one of the lowest values of the NAO on record. I believe this to be in part influenced by one of the lowest solar activity periods in the records. What could happen is that it will likely drop again this winter, leading to a much colder end to the winter season. By February, temperatures will likely remain cold...
This is only preliminary, and if El Nino decides to strengthen rapidly, all of these ideas will be null and void. I expect several updates on the winter forecast this fall.
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