Another look at the Possibilities...

As I have stated in the previous post, my findings and conclusions were this yesterday: One; That the best matches for the year's forecast were the years of 2006, 1993, 1981, 1976, 1969, and 1966... There are a few other years, and I'm changing them.. Even those these years are the closest in the weather patterns, they are actually quite far from what we are experiencing.. This is the first year that I have made a winter forecast (this is my third year) where the year in question did not have even a close match... So, this one may go on intuition. One of things I would like to emphasize in this update is the ENSO pattern (tomorrow's update will feature atmospheric blocking and SSW's).. Across the Equatorial Pacific, the current El Nino is dying.. According to Climate Prediction Center charts, the above normal SST anomalies have been fading away over the past several months, and shifted westward, as the thermocline in the equator region moves upward (the dividing line of colder waters located about 200 meters below the surface of the ocean.)... This is associated with an increase in upwelling and thus a closer La Nina pattern. I would not be surprised to see a neutral pattern come in for the winter period, or even a weak La Nina. On average, most neutral ENSO winters feature above normal snowfall across the region, but colder than normal temperatures. But that all depends on other factors such as atmospheric blocking across the North Atlantic (which I will explain in tomorrow's post). Another factor that is contributing to the weakening of the El Nino is the fact that atmospheric wind and precipitation patterns are not responding. First of all, the trade winds have not really backed off (while they are weaker than last winter's trade winds, but that was brought on because of the original intensification of the short-lived El Nino back in July), and this is the reason for the westward advancement of the above normal sea surface temperatures.. For an El Nino to strengthen it needs to stay in the eastern ENSO zones. Other factors, such as a very strong negative PDO regime is likely affecting the development of the El Nino.

What this means is that this winter will likely not reflect El Nino weather patterns, which on average would usually mean above normal temperatures across this region, but with drier than normal weather. I expect with a farther north southern jet stream, that precipitation will likely be above normal. Right now, temperatures look to be the wild card. I will have this resolved by the time I have next week's article published. Until then, here are my current thoughts. If the ENSO event does turn into a weak La Nina or even stay neutral, I expect temperatures to be slightly below normal across the region. If the ENSO strengthens into a stronger El Nino, then I would expect near or slightly above normal temperatures for the region.