Some of the more important features on the weather map today will be the slowing cold front over the Ohio and Central Mississippi Valleys, the large and deepening upper level trough over and just to the north of the area, and a shortwave which will cause a wave to form along the frontal boundary. Currently, a very strong jet streak (145 knot wind speeds in the core over south central Canada to be precise) is rounding the western section of the trough. This will aid in the development of a open wave low pressure system later during the early afternoon and evening.
As the frontal system develops, increased cloud cover will overspread the region, especially during the afternoon hours. It may be sunny right now, but according to satellite imagery, thick, heavy cloud cover will move into the region during the next several hours. As the system develops, and lifting increases as the warm front strengthens, numerous rain showers will develop. Initially, it will take quite a while for the rain bands to get going due to the dry state of the atmosphere.. But once the storm system can draw in some moisture, rain will begin. For right now, I'm expecting the heaviest period of rain to be around 03z tonight or 11 p.m. as illustrated by the map below. The map below shows vertical motion. Where vertical motion is stronger, that's where the heavier rain will be at.
Rain showers will continue until the early morning hours, with only a few scattered showers left. By Saturday, yet another shortwave will approach the area, bringing an additional chance for showers.
As for temperatures, today, I expect highs in the upper 60's to lower 70's, with lows in the lower 50's tonight. Rainfall amounts won't be that high, with about a quarter to a half an inch expected, at a maximum. For Saturday, temperatures will drop into the lower 60's, due to a cold front passage. Lows Saturday night will dip into the lower 40's. As for Sunday, highs will make it to about 57, after a secondary cold frontal passage. For the rest of next week, temperatures will begin to moderate, but some models are indicating another blast of cooler air to affect the region around Wednesday.
As the frontal system develops, increased cloud cover will overspread the region, especially during the afternoon hours. It may be sunny right now, but according to satellite imagery, thick, heavy cloud cover will move into the region during the next several hours. As the system develops, and lifting increases as the warm front strengthens, numerous rain showers will develop. Initially, it will take quite a while for the rain bands to get going due to the dry state of the atmosphere.. But once the storm system can draw in some moisture, rain will begin. For right now, I'm expecting the heaviest period of rain to be around 03z tonight or 11 p.m. as illustrated by the map below. The map below shows vertical motion. Where vertical motion is stronger, that's where the heavier rain will be at.
Rain showers will continue until the early morning hours, with only a few scattered showers left. By Saturday, yet another shortwave will approach the area, bringing an additional chance for showers.
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| This map is an isentropic map. A gradient in the red lines indicates a frontal boundary. |
As for temperatures, today, I expect highs in the upper 60's to lower 70's, with lows in the lower 50's tonight. Rainfall amounts won't be that high, with about a quarter to a half an inch expected, at a maximum. For Saturday, temperatures will drop into the lower 60's, due to a cold front passage. Lows Saturday night will dip into the lower 40's. As for Sunday, highs will make it to about 57, after a secondary cold frontal passage. For the rest of next week, temperatures will begin to moderate, but some models are indicating another blast of cooler air to affect the region around Wednesday.
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