Storms threatening on the Horizon.

1. Morning Update:
   
   Good morning everyone! After a nice morning rain with a few rumbles of thunder (from a dying convective system in association with the upper level disturbance), I expect that the mid level cold pool responsible for the system will allow for moderate instability to develop this afternoon, as solar heating commences. With moisture pooling and convergence along the boundary, dew points will increase into the upper 60's and lower 70's mainly south of Route 6 this afternoon. CAPE values will rise in the range of 1500-2500 across a good portion of the area. This, in combination with the associated cold front and shortwave, will allow for the development of scattered strong thunderstorms this afternoon. The main threats will be heavy rain and gusty winds in the strongest storms. Upper level divergence in association with a developing upper level jet streak will also help prepare the atmosphere for thunderstorm development, and at the same time providing a source of bulk shear, for downdraft/updraft separation. This could allow for some localized severe weather in some areas.
   
   As for timing, I expect that most of the thunderstorm activity will develop around and after 3 this afternoon. It will likely organize into multicell clusters at first, organizing into possibly an MCS south of the area by the late evening hours.
   
   As for the long-range forecast, a weak shortwave could push a weak cold front into the region by Thursday and Friday, causing isolated showers and thunderstorms, but with a surface anticyclone residing from the last cold front, surface moisture will be lacking, limiting storm development. By Sunday, we have bigger issues. Models continue to forecast the movement of a strong shortwave and associated storm system along the Canadian border by Saturday and Sunday. Ahead of the system, a surge of warm air from the Desert Southwest will cause temperatures to jump into the lower and middle 90's on Saturday, and possibly Sunday. A surge of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will also make the air sticky and humid. The moisture will cause the atmosphere to become unstable by Sunday, with CAPE values as high as 4000 J/kg. With higher shear values, severe weather looks to be a good possibility. The GFS continues to vary considerably with the amount of instability, with the 00z run forecasting 5000 J/kg of instability, while the 06z run is now forecasting 3000 J/kg or less of instability across the area. I will have to continue to monitor the situation, but to me it looks as if another significant severe weather outbreak may be possible.
   
   Have a great day!
   
   Joshua Steiner
   Senior meteorologist